Warriors vs Spurs: Lean Toward The Under

Action Network contributor Chris Baker details his betting picks and prediction for the NBA TV showdown between the Warriors and Spurs on Monday.

Warriors vs. Spurs Odds

Warriors Odds -5
Spurs Odds +5
Moneyline -205 / +170
Over/Under 226.5
Time Monday, 8 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The San Antonio Spurs play host to the Golden State Warriors on Sunday night on NBA TV, with tipoff scheduled for 8 p.m. ET.

Spurs vs Warriors is a rematch from two nights ago, when San Antonio upset Golden State on the road without Victor Wembanyama. Even with Wembanyama returning and Stephen Curry sidelined, the Spurs are still 6-point underdogs (+6) at DraftKings Sportsbook for this matchup. The total is set at over/under 229.5 points scored.

Let’s get to my Spurs vs Warriors prediction and Spurs vs Warriors pick as we break down tonight’s NBA odds for Spurs-Warriors.

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Warriors vs Spurs Prediction

Pick: Under 229.5 (Play 226)

Warriors Betting Outlook

The Warriors just lost by 13 to the Spurs on Saturday, and this time around Wembanyama will be in the lineup while Curry will remain out for Golden State.

The Warriors managed to score just 113 points in 100 possessions against this bad Spurs defense. San Antonio has an awful defensive rating of 124.2 with Wembanyama off the floor this season to give some context for just how had that Warriors offensive performance was. When Wembanyama has been on the floor this season, the Spurs have a defensive rating of 114, a massive 10.2-point swing.

Wembanyama is an extremely impactful defender already, but his offense is still unpolished, and the Spurs’ offense is actually 4.2 points worse per 100 possessions with him on the floor.

The Warriors should have issues scoring here with Curry remaining out of the lineup, as they just don’t have the spacing to give this Spurs defense problems. Wembanyama should completely eliminate the rim and painted area for the Warriors and their current rotation does not inspire much confidence in terms of 3-point shooting. I expect the Warriors’ offense to struggle with the Spurs’ length again here and will be looking to take them to go under their team total.

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Spurs Betting Outlook

The Spurs’ offense was elite in this matchup two nights ago, as they rebounded 40% of their misses in the half court while converting on over 51.5% of their 3-point attempts. Their 126.0 offensive rating was their ninth-best on the season. but I’d expect them to negatively regress from 3 here.

The Warriors actually did a good job of limiting the Spurs’ 3-point looks and keeping them out of transition, but they were just unable to box out in the half court. I think Golden State’s defensive rebounding will improve here considering San Antonio has a poor 25.6% offensive rebound rate with Wembanyama on the court this season. The Warriors should be able to finish possessions and get a few more stops this time around.

Warriors vs. Spurs Picks, Odds

If you couldn’t tell already, I like the Under quite a bit in this spot at 229.5.

Wembanyama is already one of the most impactful defenders in the NBA, but he remains shaky on the offensive end of the floor. The Warriors, meanwhile, are a completely different offense without Curry; their pace slows down and their 3-point attempt rate plummets. With Chris Paul on the floor and Curry off, the Warriors have a poor offensive rating of 112.8 and a great defensive rating of 112.5 on the season. They also rank in the 18th percentile of offensive transition rate with those lineups.

All of those factors in addition to Wembanyama’s return lead me toward the Under, and I would be willing to play this down to 226.

Pick: Under 229.5 (Play 226)