Warriors vs. Nuggets: Can Golden State Cover Without Stars?

Action Network contributor Corey Parson previews how to bet Warriors vs. Nuggets, including updated odds, picks & predictions for Thursday's game.

Warriors vs. Nuggets Odds

Warriors Odds +12.5
Nuggets Odds -12.5
Over/Under 231.5
Time 9 p.m. ET
TV NBA League Pass
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

After a tough overtime loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves last night, the Golden State Warriors travel to Denver to take on the Western Conference leading Denver Nuggets.

It’s the third game of a three-game road trip for the Warriors, which means we could see more of their bench than their usual starters. The Nuggets, meanwhile, have the rest advantage and should have most of their players available (Aaron Gordon is questionable with an ankle sprain).

Let’s take a look at how both teams are playing this season and find some value in the Warriors vs Nuggets odds.

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Golden State Warriors

The Golden State Warriors are starting to make their playoff push. They are 6-4 straight up and against the spread in their last 10 games. Since Christmas, they are 11-7 SU and 10-8 ATS.

Early in the season, there was a feeling that they would be the team to beat in the West despite where the Warriors finish. But a poor road record and injury to Stephen Curry have the Warriors looking like a Play-In Tournament team and not a contender. Even with their struggles, the Warriors have the second-shortest odds to win the Western Conference at various books — they are +450 at DraftKings, only the Nuggets have shorter odds at +350.

The Warriors seem to have their act together on the road since the calendar turned to 2023. They are 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS since the start of January and Curry is averaging 28.7 points per game on the road since he’s been back on the court. That’s an impressive turnaround for a team that was 4-15 ATS on the road to open the season, failing to cover the spread by 9.1 points on average. Over their recent stretch, they are covering the spread 3.1 points, according to Bet Labs.

This spread opened at 9.5 and quickly moved to double digits overnight. Such a lopsided spread would indicate that the Warriors will likely sit, Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green tonight. While the injury report hasn’t come out for the Warriors yet, I would expect that to be the case since the Warriors are playing on a back-to-back after an overtime game. Not to mention this would be their third straight road game.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets have been the class of the Western Conference to this point. They sport the conference’s best record and have the league’s best player in Nikola Jokic. Denver has lost three of its past five games, but before that they pulled off a 19-3 stretch.

The Nuggets are dominant team at home where they lead the league in win percentage (.852, 23-4 SU) and Net Rating (+10.7), per NBA Advanced Stats. They are a well-balance team with the best offense in the league (119.1, 4.6 points per 100 possessions above league average, according to Cleaning the Glass) and with a defense that’s good enough to keep them afloat. Right Now BetMGM is reporting the Nuggets have the highest ticket count to win it all at 13.5%.

Now for the cold water. The Nuggets are not as dominant when it comes to covering spreads. Denver is 26-24-1 ATS on the season and during that 19-3 stretch 13-8-1 ATS; good but not great. In home games, the Nuggets are 16-10-1 ATS but just 3-3 in their past six games.

Warriors-Nuggets Pick

Despite how good this Nuggets team is straight up, especially at home, they are overvalued against the spread. And that’s reflected in the betting splits right now. According to Action Network’s public betting data, the Warriors are getting a slight majority of bets (53%) but a significant portion of the money (75%) at the time of writing.

Be sure to monitor injury news, if any of the Warriors’ top players suit up, this number could dip slightly. Denver wont get the Warriors’ best shot tonight, but a depleted Golden State will have enough to cover a 12.5-point spread.

Pick: Warriors +12.5