Warriors vs Magic: Back Beefier Orlando

Action Network contributor Chris Baker provides his betting picks and prediction for a NBA League Pass matchup between the Warriors and Magic on Wednesday.

Warriors vs. Magic Odds

Warriors Odds +4.5
Magic Odds -4.5
Moneyline +165 / -199
Over/Under 218.5
Time Wednesday, 7 p.m. ET
TV NBA League Pass
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Here’s everything you need to know about Warriors vs. Magic on Wednesday, Mar. 27 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today’s game.

The Warriors will travel from Miami to Orlando to take on the Magic on the second leg of back-to-back games. Can the Warriors overcome their fatigue, or will the Magic stay hot at home?

Find my Warriors vs. Magic predictions and NBA betting preview below.

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Warriors vs. Magic Prediction

Pick: Magic -4.5

Warriors Betting Outlook

Monitor the injury report as this is the second of back-to-back games for the Warriors, but theoretically everyone should play given the playoff implications of this matchup. The Warriors are coming off a solid blowout win over the Heat, so they will be looking to carry that momentum into this one.

This Magic team will certainly be a more difficult challenge than the current version of the Heat given their laundry list of injuries. Stephen Curry will have to navigate against Jalen Suggs on defense, which will certainly be a challenge given Suggs’s defensive ability.

The Magic will also present a challenge because they excel at defending the 3-point line, ranking ninth best in 3-point Rate Allowed and ninth in 3-point Accuracy Allowed (36.4%). The Warriors are obviously heavily reliant on the 3 as they rank fifth in 3-point Attempt Rate on the season and eighth in 3-point Accuracy (38.2%). They may have to find other ways to manufacture points against this stout Magic defense.

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Magic Betting Outlook

The Magic have been in great form since the All-Star Break as they have gone 12-4 and rank fourth in the NBA in Net Rating (+8.3) over that span. Their defense ranks first in the NBA with a Defensive Rating of 106.4, and they also have the best Defensive Rebound Rate in the league over that same span.

The only issues they’ve had have been turnovers, as they rank 28th in Turnover Rate as they are turning the ball over on 16.2% of their possessions after the break, according to Cleaning the Glass. This has been an issue for their offense all season, but fortunately the Warrior defense ranks 24th in the NBA in Turnover Rate Forced, so the Magic should be able to take better care of the ball here.

The Magic offense should also have a consistent edge in the paint as the Warriors have really leaned into playing small ball lately with Draymond Green at the five. This Magic offense has a dramatically high and league-leading Rim Rate of 38.9%, which is 3% more than the second-place Lakers — to give you an idea of how much more reliant they are on rim shots relative to the rest of the league.

Golden state ranks 22nd in Rim Accuracy Allowed (68%) and dead last in Short Midrange Accuracy (48.3%) Allowed, so the Magic should have success in the paint against this small Warriors team. The Magic offense should also have some success on the glass as they are seventh in Offensive Rebound Rate going up against a Warriors defense that ranks 19th in Defensive Rebound Rate.

Warriors vs. Magic Picks, Odds

Ultimately, I’d expect the Magic offense to perform well here at home against this smaller Warriors defense, especially considering the Dubs are on the second leg of back-to-back games here.

At -4.5, I would lean toward the Magic on the spread as I expect this Warriors defense to struggle with their size, and I also anticipate some fatigue from the Warriors after exerting so much effort to overcome a halftime deficit last night. This Magic team is legitimate, and they have matchup advantages everywhere, so I expect them to capitalize at home.

Pick: Magic -4.5