Warriors vs. Clippers: The Value Bet for L.A.

Action Network contributor Andrew O'Connor-Watts previews how to bet Warriors vs Clippers, including updated odds, picks & predictions for Tuesday's game.

Warriors vs. Clippers Odds

Warriors Odds +9
Clippers Odds -9
Over/Under 229
Time 10 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Golden State Warriors travel to Los Angeles on Tuesday to face the Clippers for the second game of their season series.

The Warriors are coming off a strong win against the Washington Wizards Monday in which Andrew Wiggins and Klay Thompson combined for 56 of their 135 points.

The Clippers brought in some new faces at the trade deadline in the form of Eric Gordon, Bones Hyland and Mason Plumlee. All three are set to make their debut Tuesday night and will try to snap a two-game losing streak for L.A.

Let’s break down the Warriors vs Clippers odds and see where we can find bet with value.

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Golden State Warriors

The Warriors looked in form Monday, but that success may be short-lived, thanks to the Clippers’ shot profile, which could present them with challenges.

For better or worse, L.A. tends to rely on volume jumpers over post-ups or drives to the hoop. They shoot the ninth-most from midrange (33.8%) and rank 10th in 3-point Rate (35.9%), according to Cleaning the Glass.

The Warriors are particularly susceptible to that brand of shot distribution, ranking 30th in Opponent Midrange Rate (39.6%) and 19th in Opponent 3-point Rate (35.8%), while also allowing opponents to shoot 46.7% from midrange–the second-highest percentage in the league.

Golden State’s struggles will likely come early as they’ve struggled early since Curry’s most recent injury.

In the past four games without Curry, the Warriors have failed to cover a first-quarter spread, have a -22 Point Differential — thanks to poor defense — and the 11th-worst first-quarter Defensive Rating in the league, per NBA Advanced Stats.

Los Angeles Clippers

The last time these two teams faced each other was at the Chase Center on Nov. 23, in a game where LA was without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard.

A fully healthy Warriors squad beat the Clippers 124-107 in a game that wasn’t very close, save for the first quarter where they covered the 3.5-point first-quarter spread as underdogs.

Without Curry, it’s the Warriors who are road underdogs with the Clippers favored and at full-strength. The Clippers should look for some home revenge early against a Warriors squad on the second night of a back-to-back, playing their third game in four nights.

Despite their usual lack of potency in the first quarter (27-30-2 ATS), the Clippers are 6-4 in their last 10 home games and rank 10th in first-quarter Net Rating in the past five games overall (+5.7), according to NBA Advanced Stats.

Warriors-Clippers Pick

I like the Clippers to get out to an early lead against the Warriors in a letdown spot. I like them in the first half as well, but I’ll focus on a quarter in which the Warriors have struggled lately.

Integrating the new Clipper additions may not be smooth, but the only player likely to start or get heavy first-quarter minutes is Gordon — the most seasoned veteran of the group.

Another factor is Wiggins’ ankle injury. He was listed questionable before Monday’s game and there’s a solid chance he and Thompson (injury management) sit Tuesday given the Warriors’ tendency to rest guys on back-to-backs.

I think this is a great spot for L.A. I like the Clippers 1Q at anything better than -3.5 — FanDuel currently has -2.5 at -112 odds and -3.5 at +110.