EDITOR’S NOTE: Al Horford of the Boston Celtics has entered health and safety protocols, Marcus Smart has a foot injury and both are out for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals. For real-time injury updates, check out our FantasyLabs NBA news page.
The Eastern Conference Finals tip off on Tuesday night between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat. This series will be a grind-it-out, defensive-minded matchup. I would not be surprised if this series gets to seven games.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
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NBA Player Props & Picks
Al Horford, Over 8.5 Rebounds (-125)
| Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat | Heat -1.5 |
| Time | TV | 8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
Al Horford has been playing a high level for the Boston Celtics in the postseason, especially in the Conference Semifinals against the Milwaukee Bucks. Horford has been great rebounding the basketball and averaged 10.4 rebounds per game last series. In addition, Horford had nine or more rebounds in five of the seven games against the Bucks.
During the regular season against the Heat, Horford averaged 10.3 rebounds and recorded nine or more rebounds in two of the three matchups. This will be a tough grind-it-out series, and rebounding will be an emphasis on the offensive end. Both teams are among the top five in defensive efficiency and top 10 in rebounding percentage.
Despite Robert Williams III returning for the Celtics, Horford will play significant minutes because Horford gives them more of an offensive threat as a passer and shooter than Williams. Horford has been a great rebounder all throughout his career, and this series will be no different against a smaller Heat team.
Jaylen Brown, Over 2.5 3-Pointers (-115)
| Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat | Heat -1.5 |
| Time | TV | 8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
I expect the Miami Heat will smoother Jayson Tatum and make someone else on the Celtics team beat them offensively, which will make Jaylen Brown play a key role. Brown has had success against the Heat as he averaged 24.7 points per game and, more importantly, shot 47.8% from the 3-point line against them in the regular season.
During the postseason, Brown is shooting 41.9% from the 3-point line. Furthermore, over his last seven games against the Heat, Brown has knocked down three or more 3-point shots six times. If the Celtics win the series, it will be because Brown continues to be efficient from beyond the arc against a Heat team that gives up a high volume of 3-point attempts.