Top NBA Playoffs Odds & Picks: Tuesday (5/7)

The No. 1 seeds in the Eastern and Western Conferences will begin their journeys in the second round tonight. The Celtics are already massive favorites against the Cavaliers in Game 1. However, according to the sportsbooks, the Thunder-Mavericks series should be much closer.

I’ve added two best bets for tonight’s matchups. Let’s sweep the board!

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Tuesday’s Best NBA Bets

(All wagers are for 1 unit)

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics

The Cleveland Cavaliers escaped with a series win over the Orlando Magic in seven games in the first round of the playoffs. The Cavaliers won all of their home games but ultimately never scored more than 106.3 points per 100 possessions in any of the games.

On the road, the Cavaliers never scored more than 98 points per 100 possessions against the Magic. While Orlando played incredibly well defensively, the Boston Celtics can play just as well.

Boston held the Miami Heat to no more than 101.2 points per 100 possessions in the final three games of their first-round series. The Celtics didn’t even let the Heat shoot an effective field goal percentage of 49% or better in any of those three games. The Celtics were also very active on the defensive glass and never allowed the Heat to gain momentum with second chances.

On the other hand, the Celtics scored at least 125.6 points per 100 possessions in three of five games in that series and didn’t have any games with under 108.5 points per 100 possessions. While the Celtics might have trouble getting to the foul line consistently, they’ll be dominant enough defensively. Let’s back the Celtics to cover the spread against the Cavaliers in Game 1.

Bet: Celtics 11.5 (-110)

Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder

The Dallas Mavericks really found their offense late in that first-round series against the Clippers. Dallas scored at least 120.7 points per 100 possessions in three consecutive games and shot an effective field goal percentage of about 56% in those three final games of the series.

In two of the last three matchups for Dallas, the Mavericks added at least 38.1% of offensive rebounds and had a free throw rate that exceeded 24.5 in two of their previous three games.

While the offense came alive, the defense was a bit spotty against the Clippers. Dallas was never consistent in every area defensively. For example, in Game 6, the Mavericks held the Clippers to a 47.5% effective field goal percentage but still allowed 39.6% of offensive rebounds and a free throw rate of 30.

In Game 5, the Mavericks defeated the Clippers by 30 points. While the Clippers shot an effective field goal percentage of 38.5%, the Mavericks still allowed 36.5% of offensive rebounds. And when the Mavericks didn’t allow a high rate of offensive rebounds or foul shots, Dallas watched the Clippers shoot a 65% effective field goal percentage and gave up 125 points per 100 possessions in Game 4.

The good news for Dallas is that the Thunder aren’t effective on the offensive glass. That should limit their chances. The Thunder have had good shooting performances, but the defense stands out way more.

The Thunder never gave up pver 100 points per 100 possessions to the Pelicans. They also added at least 19.8% of turnovers in three consecutive games to close out the Pelicans.

There will be many exciting stars in this Thunder-Mavericks series, between Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Yet, the Under is way more appealing in Game 1.

Bet: Under 218.5 (-115)