Thunder vs. Raptors Odds & Picks: There’s a Thunderstorm Coming to Toronto

After coming out of the All-Star break a step slow, the Thunder are riding a three-game winning streak and find themselves in the thick of the Western Conference Play-in race, sitting in ninth place with a one-game lead on the 11th-place Jazz. 

The Raptors find themselves in a similar position, sitting in ninth place in the East and 1.5 games up on the 11th-place Bulls. Both teams are battling for play-in position, but the Thunder have shown more promise since the new year, leading me to believe they’ll have success on Thursday.


Thunder Raptors
Spread +6.5 -6.5
Moneyline +215 -255
Over/Under 231.0

*Lines accurate at the time of publication


Thunder +6.5 (-110, DraftKings)

As much as the Thunder have struggled over the last few seasons, they’ve turned things around in dramatic fashion this season. Since January 1st, only three teams (Kings, Sixers, Knicks) have a better offensive rating (118.3) than the Thunder while they’ve ranked top-10 in defensive rating (10th, 118.3) over that same span.

On top of the impressive team play, no team in the entire NBA has been better against the spread (ATS) this season, as the Thunder boast a record of 41-25-3 ATS with an ATS +/- of +4.3 (also the highest mark in the league).

Contrary to what’s brewing in Oklahoma City, the Raptors seem to have regressed after their impressive 2021-22 season. They’ve posted middling numbers throughout the entirety of the season, ranking 15th in offensive rating (114.0) and 16th in defensive rating (113.6) alongside a disappointing season from the reigning Rookie of the Year, Scottie Barnes. 

Much of their struggles have stemmed from their lack of rim protection, as they’ve allowed the ninth-highest field goal percentage in the restricted area (68.5%). This bodes quite well for the Thunder, who are led by the league leader in drives per game, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (24.2).

Led by superstar point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and ascending rookie Jalen Williams, this Thunder team should give Toronto fits for a full 48 minutes and are live to win outright, but taking the safety of 6.5 points is something I don’t want to pass up.

Risk: 1.1 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.

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