Thunder vs. Mavericks: How to Bet the Total in Dallas

Action Network NBA contributor Bryan Fonseca breaks down his Thunder vs Mavericks prediction for Saturday's afternoon NBATV matchup.

Thunder vs. Mavericks Odds

Thunder Odds -2.5
Mavericks Odds +2.5
Moneyline -134 / +114
Over/Under 239
Time Saturday, 3 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Here’s everything you need to know about Thunder vs Mavericks on Saturday, Feb. 10 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

Two Trade Deadline success stories meet again.

The Dallas Mavericks added Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington on Thursday, while the Oklahoma City Thunder reloaded with Gordon Hayward.

Gafford and Washington are expected to debut on Saturday, while Hayward is reportedly out until after the All-Star Break.

More on that later, along with our pick.

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Thunder vs. Mavericks Prediction

Pick: Over 240.5

Thunder Betting Outlook

The Thunder are the second-best team against the spread in the league this season following the Orlando Magic, going 31-19-1 ATS. We haven’t seen them since losing on Tuesday to the Utah Jazz, and while they’ve been good ATS after a loss, they’re 8-6-1 and 11th in the NBA — a far cry from their overall ATS record, good nonetheless.

The Thunder stand as 2-5-point favorites and they’re 7-7 ATS, only better than 11 teams as road favorites. And with 2-3 days off, they’re 5-5-1 ATS, middle of the pack in the league. Much of their ATS success, unsurprisingly, has come at home.

As a road favorite, OKC has gone over in 9-of-14 contests, tied for fourth-most over totals in the NBA. Similarly, they’ve hit seven overs in 11 contests following two to three days rest, with the sixth-best over hit-rate.

On the injury report is just Hayward, and he’s out.

Mavericks Betting Outlook

The Mavericks are home underdogs here, albeit slightly, and are coming off a road win in New York against the Knicks on Thursday night. Dallas is 12-16 ATS following a win, which is the 10th-worst cover rate in the league, with the league’s second-worst ATS plus minus at -4.2. As a home underdog, they’re 4-7 ATS, covering more than just nine teams in that spot, two of whom have only played one game all season as road dogs — the Clippers and Bucks, in case you were wondering.

ATS at home? Dallas is 11-16, which is 24th in the NBA. They’re at least 7-6 ATS with a rest disadvantage, so there’s that, which is top 10 in the league.

So yeah, their ATS numbers at home aren’t great.

Totals, anyone?

Dallas has hit 14 under and 13 overs in 27 home games, middle of the road in the league. They’ve gotten seven unders in 11 games as home underdogs, hitting more unders than all but only six teams by percentage, and only three of them have played more than six games in said situation.

Dallas has hit 16 unders in 28 games following a win this season, more unders by percentage than all but six teams. And with a rest disadvantage, they’ve hit six overs and six unders in 13 games.

The Mavericks have a length injury report. The main ones you need to know are that starting center Dereck Lively (nose) is out, as is Dante Exum (knee). Maxi Kleber is questionable with a day-to-day toe ailment. Luka Doncic (nose) and Kyrie Irving (thumb) are both probable.

Thunder vs. Mavericks Picks, Odds

Dallas is an elite road team against the spread, but they’ve been so unreliable at the crib. Conversely, while OKC is elite at home, they’re still very good on the road, 14-10-1 ATS on the road, which was tied with the Pelicans before last night’s game against the Lakers.

At the same time, the Thunder — have had each of their previous three losing streaks snapped with back-to-back losses, and all three sets of L’s began with a road loss. In two instances, the back half was also a road loss.

I can’t confidently back either side, but I’m okay with betting the total over 240.5 and up to 241.5. Side-wise, it’s probably OKC or nothing for me, but it’s more than likely a stay-away, personally.

Lean: Over 240.5