Suns vs. Thunder: Attack These 4 Player Props

Jim Turvey of Action Network previews the Phoenix Suns and Oklahoma City Thunder game on Sunday, April 2, 2023.

Suns vs. Thunder Odds

Suns Odds -5.5
Thunder Odds +5.5
Over/Under 236.5
Time 7 p.m. ET
TV NBA League Pass
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Suns head to Oklahoma City on Sunday to take on the Thunder. Five games remain in the season for the Suns while the Thunder have four.

The Suns, who are getting healthy at the right time, appear likely to land the fourth spot in the West, entering this contest leading the Warriors by 1 1/2 games.

The Thunder, meanwhile, sit a game up on the Mavericks for the last play-in spot in the Western Conference, giving each game down the stretch some extra meaning.

Both teams have just about their full arsenal of players, so let’s take a look at what that means for player prop picks in a game where the spread and total look to be pretty in line with my power ratings.

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Phoenix Suns

Kevin Durant has been limited to only five games with Phoenix, but interesting patterns have emerged for the other Suns starters — Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton and Josh Okogie — with Durant in the lineup vs. without.

The most notable is DeAndre Ayton’s points. The big man averages 18 PPG on the season, but just 10 when playing with Durant. It makes sense; in a lineup with Booker and Durant (and to a lesser degree Paul), it’s hard for Ayton to eat. His current points prop is at 14.5 points, and I’ll be looking to the under.

The next thing that pops — and makes sense when we zoom out to the bigger reasoning behind it — is an increase in Booker’s assists. He averages 5.5 dimes, but playing with Durant, that has ticked up to 6.8. Again, with an extra mouth to feed, and with it being one of most efficient mouths out there (this analogy is crumbling), naturally Booker’s playmaking is going to increase. You can currently get plus money on Booker’s assists over 5.5.

Finally, Paul’s points are way down (averages 13.5 PPG; 9.6 playing with Durant). That’s even before accounting for Durant’s first game back from injury when he wasn’t really clicking, so Paul shouldered the load a bit more scoring wise. Without that game, Paul is averaging a hair above seven points per game. I’ll be looking at his points under 12.5.

There’s a reason I am not looking at Okogie or Booker points overs. In the case of Okogie (7.3 PPG; 12.4 PPG with Durant), it’s a trend picked out by the books, as they hang 10.5 points for these Durant games. As for Booker (28.1 PPG; 32.8 PPG with Durant), I don’t hate the look, especially if combined with the assists, but that’s the better angle for me.

Oklahoma City Thunder

I’ll be brief with the Thunder since we went more in depth with the Suns because of the nature of the splits available.

I will, however, mention that I’m eyeing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s points prop. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging even more points per game in March — up to 33.5 from his season-long average of 31.4. He had 39 points last time out and seems to have a definitive sense of urgency to get the Thunder into the postseason. He had 40 last time out against the Suns, and this game as a whole has taken sharp money to the over. All signs point toward taking his points prop over.

Currently, bettors can get a heavily juiced over on 30.5 or 31.5 at around -105. I prefer the latter of the two, but only slightly if your book only offers the former.

Suns-Thunder Pick

I don’t have a play on the side or total, but there are a plethora of player props to be played here. To refresh:

Pick 1: Deandre Ayton Under 14.5 Points | Play to -135

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Pick 2: Chris Paul Under 12.5 Points | Play to -140

Pick 3: Devin Booker Over 5.5 Assists | Play to -120

Pick 4: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 Points | Play to -120

Make sure to shop these props in the Action Network app to get the best price available on each.

I typically am not a fan of same game parlays, but if you can find a book that will allow you to bet unders in a SGP, I don’t hate tying the three Suns bets together and maybe tossing Durant to score 25 in there as well, since they are all involved in a similar game script. Doing so at DraftKings gives the bettor +900 as of writing this.