Suns vs Nuggets: Take Well-Balanced Denver Team

Action Network contributor Jessica Gonsalves details his betting picks and prediction for the marquee Western Conference matchup of Suns vs. Nuggets on Tuesday.

Suns vs. Nuggets Odds

Suns Odds +8.5
Nuggets Odds -8.5
Moneyline +310 / -400
Over/Under 223.5
Time Tuesday, 10 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Here’s everything you need to know about Suns vs. Nuggets on Tuesday, March 5 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

Tuesday’s matchup between the Phoenix Suns (35-26) and the Denver Nuggets (42-19) offers a compelling narrative for sports bettors with the absence of Devin Booker. With Denver’s high-altitude advantage a potential key advantage, this game not only pits two of the Western Conference’s powerhouses against each other but also highlights a clash of distinct playing styles and strategic nuances.

The current Suns vs Nuggets odds have the Nuggets as 9.5-point favorites (-9.5) against the Suns, with the total set at over/under 223.5.

With both teams vying for playoff positioning, understanding their season-long performances and underlying metrics becomes crucial in forecasting the outcome. Let’s get to our Suns vs Nuggets picks and Suns vs Nuggets prediction.

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Suns vs. Nuggets Prediction

Pick: Nuggets -9.5

Suns Betting Outlook

The Suns have demonstrated resilience and efficiency this season, boasting the 11th best offensive rating in the league. Phoenix’s eighth place ranking in effective field goal percentage (eFG%) underscores a potent scoring ability, particularly from beyond the arc and in mid-range shooting. These stats are factoring in Booker as a key contributor on the offensive end.

However, a 29th-place ranking in turnover percentage reveals a vulnerability that the Nuggets’ defense could exploit. Despite this, the Suns excel in offensive rebounding (sixth) and free throw rate (first), indicative of their aggression and proficiency in drawing fouls and securing second-chance points.

Defensively, the Suns are positioned 13th in the league, with their strength lying in contesting shots effectively, as evidenced by their eighth place ranking in eFG%. Yet, their defensive rebounding (23rd) and ability to force turnovers (24th) highlight potential areas for the Nuggets to capitalize on, especially given Denver’s balanced offensive approach.

The Suns’ capacity to limit opponents’ free throw opportunities (sixth in free throw rate defense) will be tested against a Nuggets team that thrives in the paint with Nikola Jokić.

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Nuggets Betting Outlook

The Nuggets’ offensive prowess, ranking seventh in offensive rating, is driven by their balanced attack and efficiency. Ranked 11th in eFG% and ninth in turnover percentage, Denver excels in maximizing possessions and minimizing mistakes, a testament to their disciplined play and Jokić’s leadership.

While their free throw rate and percentage rank lower (25th in both), Denver’s ability to generate high-quality shots compensates for this discrepancy.

Defensively, the Nuggets have shown they can stifle opponents, boasting the ninth best defensive rating. Their sixth place ranking in eFG% allowed demonstrates a robust perimeter and interior defense, crucial against a Suns team that thrives on shooting efficiency.

However, Denver’s middling performance in defensive rebounding (16th) and forcing turnovers (26th) suggests the Suns could find opportunities to maintain offensive flow and generate extra possessions.

Suns vs. Nuggets Picks, Odds

Given the dynamics at play, taking the Nuggets to cover the 9.5-spread emerges as the best bet. With the game being in Denver, where the Nuggets have traditionally leveraged their home-court advantage in addition to the Suns’ offensive efficiency without Booker positions them well to dominate the game tonight.

Furthermore, the discrepancy in strength of schedule— with the Suns having faced the theoretical easiest path in the NBA this season—showcases their inability to thrive against the weakest opponents.

The Nuggets’ balanced offensive and defensive capabilities, coupled with Suns propensity to turn the ball over at a high rate, position them favorably against Phoenix. Denver’s efficiency in both shooting and defending, especially in minimizing opponents’ effective shooting, should be enough to disrupt a Phoenix offense that will focus primarily on Kevin Durant.

Pick: Nuggets -9.5