In the table below, you will find my top two NBA player props for Sunday, February 4 featuring picks for John Collins and Anfernee Simons from the later games on tonight’s slate. Let’s stay hot and cap off a great weekend of betting!
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NBA Player Props for Sunday, Feb. 4
John Collins Over 7.5 Rebounds (-120)
8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Rest is in favor of the Utah Jazz in their home matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. They have been off for two days, while the Bucks are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back. The Bucks won last night, but Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard logged heavy minutes. It wouldn’t be shocking if one of them sat this game out.
Bucks’ center Brook Lopez missed last night’s game due to personal reasons and his status is unclear for tonight’s action. With Lopez out, the Bucks were outrebounded by one of the worst rebounding teams in the league last night 42-36. That bodes well for Jazz forward John Collins, who has been a menace on the glass recently. Over his last six games, Collins is averaging 10.3 rebounds per game and has finished with nine or more in five of those six contests.
In the past two weeks, Collins leads the Jazz by a comfortable margin with 16 potential rebounds per game. His season average of 7.9 per game, is also over his prop line. If Lopez is ruled out again and Antetokounmpo sits, it wouldn’t be shocking if Collins’ rebound prop moved to 8.5 tonight. Take his over now before the line moves.
Our prop model has Collins projected for 9.8 rebounds in this matchup, which is well over his prop line. Taking this bet one step further, Collins is +235 at DraftKings to record a double-double tonight. Those are strong odds for a player who has posted a double-double in three of his last five games. His alternate rebounds line can be bet up to 8.5 at +135. There are many ways to climb the ladder for John Collins. This is a great spot that could get better.
Pick: John Collins Over 7.5 Rebounds (-120)
Anfernee Simons Under 24.5 Points (-125)
8:30 p.m. ET | NBA TV
After losing to the Denver Nuggets by 12 points on Friday, the Portland Trail Blazers get a chance at revenge in the same matchup tonight. To no surprise, the Nuggets are 14-point home favorites, with the Trail Blazers implied for only 102.3 points. That is one of the lowest totals in the league all season. They scored 108 in Friday’s matchup.
Trail Blazers point guard Anfernee Simons has been a roller coaster since returning from injury in December. He has a few games of 30-plus points, but then will follow that up with a game scoring single-digits. Simons is a volume shooter that is only connecting on 44% of his field goal attempts this season. Despite scoring 29 points in their last meeting, Simons is only projected for 20.5 points in our prop model for tonight. His inconsistency makes this a strong bet.
The Nuggets rank fourth in the league allowing only 110.7 points per game. Their defensive rating increases when playing at home in the high altitude. With a 20-4 home record, it is hard to envision this second go-around being competitive with the Trail Blazers 6-21 road record. A blowout will help this prop as well if Simons minutes are limited. Simons has scored under 25 points in three of his last four and 11 of his last 16 since the start of January.
There are other sportsbooks that are offering a prop line of 23.5 points, with better odds on the under. I would consider those also, but for this article we will stick to Simons under 24.5 points. If you are wanting more action and playing for the blowout, consider Simons to stay under his alternate points line of 22.5 points at +110. Perfect spot to fade Simons.