On this short four-game slate, I have provided two props that our model absolutely loves ahead of Sunday’s NBA card. These certainly aren’t superstar names, but I’m trusting the model. That said, let’s finish the weekend strong.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Tyrese Haliburton, Under 13.5 Rebounds + Assists (-115)
|Kings vs. Rockets||Kings -6|
|Time | TV||6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
This matchup between the Kings and Rockets features one of the highest game totals we have seen all season with 240.5 points. The Kings are six-point home favorites, implied to score a whopping 123.3 points. In their previous meeting, the Kings beat the Rockets 126-114.
In that game, Tyrese Haliburton played 31 minutes, finishing with 12 assists and six rebounds. That was the first time that he exceeded this prop line in his last seven games. Hitting this under prop 86% in the last seven games provides nice value. For the season, Haliburton is leading the Kings with 7.1 assists and 3.9 rebounds per game. He has been very solid in his second year.
The matchup against the Rockets is phenomenal. They rank 29th in Defensive Rating, first in Pace, and have allowed a league-high 116.8 points per game. The Rockets also allow their opponents to shoot 46.9% from the field and 34.9% from downtown. They’re an atrocious defense this season.
The matchup is very easy for Haliburton and the Kings. That’s concerning with taking an under prop, but I am trusting the numbers. This game could also easily get out of hand which would definitely help this prop.
Our model has Haliburton projected for only 10.4 assists and rebounds. His under assists props of 9.5 has a better rating in our model, but the value of adding rebounds to Haliburton’s prop is much better. I would bet this down to 12.5 assists and rebounds, despite this incredible matchup.
Royce O’Neale, Over 7.5 Rebounds + Assists (+105)
|Nuggets vs. Jazz||Jazz -5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
This other rebounds-plus-assists prop features some juice for Royce O’Neale. The Jazz are five-point road favorites against the Nuggets. Besides Haliburton, O’Neale’s props are popping like crazy in our model. These are the top two props that have the best line in our model.
Playing an O’Neale prop always provides value given how many minutes he plays. His playing time has increased lately despite the Jazz being on a little bit of a skid losing three of their last four games. Over the last four games, he is averaging 36.3 minutes per game which is the best on this Jazz team.
During that four-game stretch, O’Neale is averaging 7.3 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game. He has exceeded this 7.5 prop in three of those four games. Our model has O’Neale projected for 9.4 rebounds and assists.
O’Neale will have plenty of opportunities to exceed this prop once again, as this should be a relatively close game with the favored Jazz . He will need to playing heavy minutes, as he is Utah’s best defender. The heavy minutes with how many times O’Neale has hit this recently has me very interesting in going heavy with this juice prop. Take this up to 8.5 rebounds and assists.