NBA Player Props Today
There are only three games on the NBA schedule tonight, but still plenty of value in the betting markets. In the table below, you will find my top two NBA player props for Saturday, March 2, including over bets for Jerami Grant and Jabari Smith Jr. Let’s break down how I am targeting these two players tonight.
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Jerami Grant Over 21.5 Points (FanDuel)
8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
The Portland Trail Blazers continue to be decimated with injuries to their rotation. Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson are out, while Deandre Ayton missed last night’s game with a hand injury. Those players being out will provide ample opportunity for Jerami Grant to fill it up against a glorified G-League team in the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Trail Blazers beat the Grizzlies by 30 points last night and Grant led the team with a +27. He only scored 10 points in the blowout victory, but our prop model has Grant projected for 25.7 points tonight. Grant’s points prop is standing out in our prop model as the best player prop on the board tonight. The journeyman forward in his second year with the Trail Blazers is averaging 21.4 points per game, which is the second-largest per game total in his career.
Grant finds himself in a positive matchup against the Grizzlies who have also been crushed with injuries all season long. The big news on the Grizzlies will be whether or not Jaren Jackson Jr. can play after missing last night’s game. In six games without Jackson Jr. this season, the Grizzlies’ defensive rating drops from 114.5 to 120.2 per game.
FanDuel is offering -115 on Grant’s over points at 21.5, which is one point less than DraftKings and BetMGM. Make sure to get this action in immediately before the line moves. However, I do like this up to 24.5 points given our model’s projection. Grant to score 25+ points on DraftKings is +135. Grant is second on the team with a 25.8% usage rate, which will climb with the injuries. Expect a big performance in what should be a more competitive game tonight.
Pick: Jerami Grant Over 21.5 Points (-115)
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Jabari Smith Jr. Over 9.5 Rebounds (DraftKings)
9 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Second-year pro Jabari Smith Jr. has been a menace on the glass over the last week. In his four games played since February 23rd, Smith Jr. is averaging 15.5 rebounds per game, which is the second-highest in the league during that time. He has 16 rebounds against the Suns twice over the last week and will draw the same matchup again tonight.
After losing 110-105 to the Suns on Thursday night, the Rockets are double-digit road underdogs in their rematch. They are 5-24 on the road, but we can expect an exciting up-tempo game environment with a slate-high 233-point game total. The Rockets rank second in pace, while the Suns rank just outside the top 10 since the All-Star Break.
The Suns rank eighth in rebounding percentage this season, but this line feels low for Smith Jr. He has dominated the glass in not only this matchup, but other matchups recently. Smith Jr. has recorded double-digit rebounds in seven of his last nine games, while averaging 11.6 per game during that time. Our prop model has Smith Jr. projected to haul down 10.6 rebounds tonight. Getting -110 on the over is a great value given his rebounding prowess lately.
Smith Jr.’s odds to record a double-double on DraftKings is +120 if you want more action. He is averaging 14.1 points per game over his last nine games with six double-doubles. Smith Jr. is a streaky volume shooter, but has scored 22 and 11 points against the Suns in their last two meetings. This is a great matchup for Smith Jr. tonight.