Rockets vs. Suns: How to Bet the Total in Phoenix

Action Network contributor Michael Fiddle breaks down his Rockets vs Suns pick for Saturday's game.

Rockets vs. Suns Odds

Rockets Odds +9.5
Suns Odds -9.5
Moneyline +350 / -450
Over/Under 233
Time Saturday, 9 p.m. ET
TV NBA League Pass
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Here’s everything you need to know about Rockets vs. Suns on Saturday, March 2 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

Let’s get to our Rockets vs. Suns prediction and pick.

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Rockets vs. Suns Prediction

Pick: Over 231

Rockets Betting Outlook

The Rockets are playing their second consecutive game in Phoenix in the NBA’s version of the mini baseball series. Despite being the road team, they have no travel disadvantage and no rest disadvantage. They also have a completely clean bill of health (minus the long standing injuries of Tari Eason and Steven Adams). I expect the Rockets to come out firing a bit, look to push the pace and initiate inside out offense through Alperen Sengun. As long as the Rockets are making their jumpers, this game should fly over.

Suns Betting Outlook

The Suns need to play with emphasis in every home game and against every team that has a sub .500 record. The Suns are currently tied with the New Orleans Pelicans for the fifth and sixth place seeds in the Western Conference, and just one game up on the 7th place Sacramento Kings. They are looking to avoid the play in tournament, but the Suns schedule is the #1 hardest opponent rank with more away games than home games. These spots of getting Houston at home has to be played with urgency and pace. The way the Suns secure a win is to push the tempo, increase the number of possessions, and outscore the Rockets. I expect both teams style of play to push towards the over.

Rockets vs. Suns Picks, Odds

There is a very fun strategy angle to understand in capping these back to back games.

Since the Rockets and Suns just played two days ago, the most important capping information we can have is the previous games closing numbers. In this case, it was a spread of -9 and a game total of 231.5. The closing numbers for the first game as such a strong indicator because they are the market consensus based off of the entire season and priors that go into it.

When the numbers appear for the the following game, they are a reflection of the closing number + an adjustment to the one game sample size results we just had. That is an overreaction! When the total for this game re opened at 229, it was a no brainer to scoop up an over because it was going to close closer to 231.5.

I would still play the over an anything below the previous close.

Pick: Over 231 or better