Pelicans vs Heat: Two Props Worth Betting

Action Network contributor Bryan Fonseca provides his player props, picks, and prediction for the Ingram-less Pelicans vs. Heat matchup on Friday.

Pelicans vs. Heat Odds

Pelicans Odds +3
Heat Odds -3
Moneyline +125 / -154
Over/Under 209.5
Time Friday, 8 p.m. ET
TV NBA League Pass
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Here’s everything you need to know about Pelicans vs. Heat on Friday, Mar. 22 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today’s game.

I’m not doing my usual boxing preview for Action this week because there isn’t a fight worthy of it — but this is an acceptable substitute.

The Miami Heat and New Orleans Pelicans had the Fight of the Year in the NBA this season and will take part in a rematch this evening.

Let’s visit the Tale of the Tape and get to my Pelicans vs. Heat pick and preview.

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Pelicans vs. Heat Prediction

Pick: Jimmy Butler over 20.5 points | Zion Williamson over 5.5 assists

Pelicans Betting Outlook

The Pels have been one of the hottest teams in the NBA as of late, and even with last night’s loss to the Orlando Magic they’ve gone 16-6 since January 31. That said, Brandon Ingram left last night’s 121-106 loss in Orlando early due to a knee injury and will reportedly be out for at least two weeks.

The Pels have become one of the better teams against the spread, improving their season-long body of work, which wasn’t as consistent through the first few months.

The Pels, who opened as 1-point underdogs — now at 3.5 — are the second best ATS road underdog in the league, covering in 10 of 16, second only to the Oklahoma City Thunder. With no rest, they have the eighth best cover percentage in the NBA. And after a loss, they have the best cover percentage in the NBA, 17-8-1 against the spread.

The Pelicans have also hit unders in this scenario. They’re 9-6-1 to the under as a road dog, tied for sixth in the NBA, and 8-5 to the under with a rest disadvantage.

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Heat Betting Outlook

This maddening group of Miami Masochists defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers two nights ago thanks to late-game Terry Rozier heroics (or maybe we call them Herro-ics).

The Heat have won three of four, which followed a streak of losing four straight, which followed a streak of winning 11 of 14, which followed a streak of losing seven straight, which followed a streak of winning three straight, which followed losses in four of six, which followed four straight wins.


The Heat are 26-11 to the under after wins — third in the NBA. They’re 27-16 to the under with one day off, second in the NBA. They’re 10-6 to the under with a rest advantage — fourth in the NBA.

Miami is pretty pedestrian ATS, even as it’s been better lately, but the Heat are actually 20-16-1 ATS after a win, which is sixth in the NBA. As a home favorite, they’re just 11-13 ATS, 20-23 ATS with one day off and 8-8 ATS with a rest advantage.

For live betting purposes, one of my favorite things to track has been the Heat’s fourth-quarter performance. I’ve said they’re an improved closing team away from being a contender … along with reasonably good health.

In fourth quarters, the Heat were 18-32 with a -126 point differential through Feb. 4.

From there through their March 5 win over the Detroit Pistons, they went 10-1 and were +47, looking like a new team. Since the start of their four-game losing streak, which began in Dallas in March, they’re 3-4-1 in fourths and -12.

For the season? One of the NBA’s worst: 31-37-1 and -91. But as of late, they’re 13-5-1 in fourth quarters and +30 over what is now a 19-game and seven-week sample, and 11-7 straight up in those contests.

I had been fading the Heat for the first few months and have been taking them ahead of fourths more often lately, less so in the current downturn.

Injuries? Injuries.

Tyler Herro (foot) out. Kevin Love (heel) out. Josh Richardson (shoulder) out. Duncan Robinson (back) out.

The big one? Bam Adebayo is questionable with a back contusion. He said Wednesday’s absence was more maintenance than anything else.

I’d be surprised if he can’t go.

Pelicans vs. Heat Picks, Odds

The ATS metrics say the Pelicans should cover, however, Ingram is out.

The over/under data says the Heat should keep this under; however, they’re the Heat, the Miami Masochists.

The moneyline and spread are stayaways from me, though our data has detected sharp Pels money. And as much as I’d like to lean under, it’s at 208, so I’m off of that as well.

So for tonight, I went props. Jimmy Butler over 20.5 points and Zion Williamson over 5.5 assists.

Butler said the following after the fight last month:

“We’ll beat them the next time, too. We’re just a better team. Our team is so ready for anything that anybody’s thrown at us. We’re so together, playing some incredible basketball. I don’t think it matters who we go up against right now. It’s that time of the year.”

I’ll take him up to 21.5, maybe even 22.5.

Williamson? Without Ingram — we think — it’s Point Zion time.

Pick: Jimmy Butler over 20.5 points | Zion Williamson over 5.5 assists