Whether you thought the Nuggets would take care of business or not, I don’t think anyone envisioned LeBron James facing an 0-3 series deficit heading into Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals.
Despite coming in as three-point home favorites in Game 4, the Lakers have been outplayed in nearly every facet of the game this series and seemingly do not have an answer for the Nuggets’ secondary star, Jamal Murray.
The betting market seems to think they’ll find a way to snag a win at home (hence the line), but I remain skeptical and think the Nuggets are simply too good to let that happen.
NUGGETS VS. LAKERS BETTING ODDS
| Nuggets | Lakers | |
| Spread | +3.0 | -3.0 |
| Moneyline | +130 | -150 |
| Total | 224.0 |
Odds and lines are accurate at the time of publication.
NUGGETS VS. LAKERS BEST BETS
Nuggets ML (+130, DraftKings)
As alluded to above, some of the discrepancies between the production from the Lakers and the Nuggets have been alarming, but somewhat unsurprising.
The Lakers’ biggest issue coming into the postseason was their lack of production from deep, having shot under 35% from three during the regular season. Things haven’t gotten better in the WCF, as they’ve shot 33.7% on nearly 29 attempts per game. On the flip side, the Nuggets have shot 41.4% on 37 attempts per game. This alone is a massive cause for concern, as the Lakers simply have not been (and will not be) able to keep up.
Having hung their hats on their defensive prowess since the trade deadline, the Lakers have also seen their defense crumble in this series, sporting a defensive rating of 120.9 and a 47.7% rebounding rate, the lowest rate of the four remaining teams.
With the way that Jamal Murray is playing, the Nuggets haven’t even needed eruption games from Nikola Jokic to take the 3-0 lead, especially with how much LeBron James is struggling on the offensive end for the Lakers. There is simply too much room for error on the Lakers’ side for me to back them after they’ve given us zero reasons to do so in this series. I’ll happily keep taking the value with the Nuggets.
Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1.3 units.
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