Saturday features Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets protected home court and have a 2-0 lead in this series, as the Lakers look to do the same with the series shifting to L.A.
The Lakers are six-point favorites after racking up a perfect 6-0 at home during the playoffs. I have two props at even-money for role players Bruce Brown and Austin Reaves, so let’s dive in.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Bruce Brown, Under 11.5 Points (+100)
| Spread | Lakers -6 |
| Time · TV | 8:30 p.m. ET · ABC |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Bruce Brown has been fantastic off the bench for the Nuggets during their playoff run. He’s averaging 12.5 points per game on 52.6% shooting from the field.
However, most of his scoring production comes at home, where he can use his speed to his advantage. Brown is averaging 10.4 points per game on the road this postseason compared to 13.8 per game at home. He’s also shooting 25% from behind the arc in his five road playoff games.
Brown had similar splits during the regular season. Not only does he struggle on the road, but so do the Nuggets as a team. Including the playoffs, the Nuggets are 21-25 on the road compared to 42-7 at home.
That’s a big reason why the Lakers are such heavy home favorites tonight.
The Lakers also boast the third-best defensive rating (108.4) during the playoffs, as they’ve found their identity. They’re allowing just 99.3 points per game at home in the postseason.
This is the best prop in our ActionLabs Prop Model, as Brown is projected to score only 8.7 points tonight. Getting this value at even-money on FanDuel is a steal.
Brown has been barking at several Lakers players, and we saw how that worked out for Dillon Brooks after Game 2 of L.A.’s series against Memphis.
Brown has had a successful postseason thus far, but there are plenty of reasons to believe he may struggle to reach 12 points tonight.
Austin Reaves, Over 4.5 Assists (+100)
| Spread | Lakers -6 |
| Time · TV | 8:30 p.m. ET · ABC |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Another player prop coming in at even-money is Austin Reaves over 4.5 assists at DraftKings.
Reaves is third on the Lakers behind LeBron James and Anthony Davis in minutes per game during the postseason, becoming their third option on many occasions. He’s averaging 7.9 potential assists and 4.6 actual assists per game while accumulating five or more assists in each of his last four games. That gives us awesome value on this prop.
One of the top assist leaders on the Lakers has been D’Angelo Russell, but he’s slowly playing his way out of this series with a -41 mark in 59 minutes. The Lakers are +30 in 37 minutes without Russell through the first two games against the Nuggets. If Russell doesn’t start or gets his playing time cut, that’s going to boost the passing production from Reaves.
Our Prop Model has Reaves projected to accumulate 5.7 assists tonight, which is well over his 4.5 prop line.
The Nuggets’ defensive rating drops from 107.5 at home to 116.2 on the road during the playoffs. They’re a different team away from home, which will also benefit Reaves. The Nuggets are allowing 115 points per game on the road compared to 103 at home.
The Lakers are implied for 114.25 points as six-point home favorites. Reaves will have plenty of opportunity to reach this over prop, and I would even consider climbing the ladder if Russell doesn’t start.