NBA Player Props Bet Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (1/3)

Happy New Year! I hope everyone’s resolutions included winning more bets because that is exactly what I am here to help you do.

Despite a bit of a cold streak recently, it has been a remarkably successful season. What better slate to continue the winning ways than with a 12 gamer? Plenty of value falls through the cracks here, and there are countless questionable tags, so be sure to monitor injury news. As always, shop around for the best odds.

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>

Wednesday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets

Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be a single unit.

Last Time: 0-3
Season: 63-39

Jaime Jaquez Jr. Under 16.5 points (BetRivers)

Despite a recent tear in which he’s averaged over 16 points a game – a number that is skewed due to a 31-point performance – Jaquez will come back down to Earth here soon. On the road against a top-10 defense is a prime spot for that to happen.

Sometimes, I trust the projections too, and the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet puts Jaquez closer to 13 points with a 72-percent chance of hitting. The Sheet has been an awesome source for me this year, and it’s a big reason why I have done so well. I would recommend it to anyone for all your betting needs.

Khris Middleton Under 6.5 assists (DraftKings)

I can’t say it’s fun consistently betting unders, but this number is simply too high. After two double-digit assist games over his last three efforts, this number is over inflated.

Even with those two double-double games, Middleton hasn’t reached seven assists in six of his last eight games, and he’s banged up with a chance to not even play tonight. It may be tempting to smash overs against the Pacers but sometimes betting is identifying the right times to zag when the books zig. This is one of those times I’ve pegged. 

Julius Randle Under 26.5 points (DraftKings)

Sometimes, you should just zig while the sportsbooks zag. Chicago ranks dead last in pace, bringing down an already slow Knicks team. There is a reason this total sits under 220, and I simply find it difficult for Randle to reach such a high number.

I will highlight that Patrick Williams is questionable to play with an ankle injury, so his status slightly concerns me. Still, the Bulls have held serve against opposing power forwards, and Randle is averaging 24 points per game. This pricing doesn’t make much sense to me given a solid defense in a pace-down spot.  

Kevin Knox II Under 10.5 points (FanDuel)

They may have gotten their win to finish out 2023, but don’t go jumping to bet the Pistons. They are still remarkably bad. Knox is a bit of a tough cookie to crack because, when he is on the court, he’s decent. However, he often won’t even reach 20 minutes.

On the road, in a pace-down spot, Knox gives me concern. He is projected closer to six points. It seems to be an all-or-nothing effort from the forward, and I am betting on nothing tonight.

RJ Barrett Over 20.5 Pts + Reb (FanDuel)

I can’t just leave you with all unders bets. It appears the books are catching up to my “blindly bet overs when facing the Wizards.” Cleveland player props are remarkably high, so I am avoiding that game all together. Instead, I trust the Barrett to show out for the Raptors tonight in Memphis.

After getting traded from the Knicks, Barrett hit the ground running against the Cavs with 19 points and nine boards. Now, I don’t expect him to maintain that level of production, but Toronto – and Memphis for that matter – will consistently play at higher paces, so expect Barrett’s averages to continue rising.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes — or head to a more advanced strategy — like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor — to learn more.

Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.