Check out our NBA Player Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for more about Friday’s action
Kyle Anderson Under 16.5 Pts + Reb (-105 DraftKings)
Kyle Anderson is a bit inconsistent, scoring 18 points here and four points there such that the books don’t know how to judge him. In games where he’s started, his usage has stayed under 20 percent, and he consistently scores in the single digits.
The Timberwolves may be at home but in a pace-down spot against Charlotte. The usage simply isn’t high enough to trust that he can bring down over 16 combined points and boards, especially considering Minnesota’s already struggling rebound numbers, ranking 27th in the league.
This team will run through Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert, I’m avoiding adding the assist prop in this combo because Anderson should be passing the rock, but he won’t be doing much else.
Tyler Herro Over 5.5 rebounds (+120 DraftKings)
For the value play of the day, I’m taking the Kentucky product to pull down at least six boards tonight in Milwaukee.
I am trusting the projections here, with the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet giving a +39 percent expected value to Herro going over his rebounding totals. And I have to agree. Milwaukee is a scary team to bet against for handicappers, which means the books adjust accordingly.
Herro has averaged over 5.6 boards a game on the season, and with the break, he should be fully healthy from his left knee contusion. This is simply too conservative of a line for him, and I’m jumping on it.
Jordan Poole Under 26.5 points (-108 FanDuel)
Finally, with the Warriors playing in a back-to-back, I’m generally fading the Warriors tonight, despite playing at home against Houston. While the lines are not out yet for this game as I type this, I expect the Warriors to be near double-digit favors tonight. I can’t imagine Steve Kerr pushing his starters to play high minutes in a game like this.
Poole only tallied 16 points last night, and he’s only averaged 21.8 points per game over the last two weeks with the current Warriors squad. Yes, you should expect a bump in projections when facing the Rockets, but I don’t think the projection would go over 24. This seems like a clear fade to me, as I expect there to be a lot of shared wealth tonight in a Warriors victory.
Check out our NBA Player Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for more about Friday’s action