Walker Kessler Under 25 Pts + Ast + Reb (-125 DraftKings)
Despite the Spurs and their worst defense in the league – I do not see Kessler deserving of such a bump in any of his props to be projected at 25 for these combinations of stats.
Kessler has gone under this line in nine out of the last 15 games and is due for some major regression in all three categories. He has seen an uptick in minutes, but his production levels are not sustainable. His usage has sat below 15 percent each of the last five games, and I imagine it will stay around then tonight.
While he is a solid rebounder, I do not trust his scoring and facilitating ability. I expect his point total to stay below double-digits and, thus, his combo points prop to go under tonight.
Dame Lillard Under 51.5 Pts + Ast + Reb (-111 Caesars)
If you’ve read any of my articles previously, I’m guessing you know where I’m going with this one. After Dame’s 71-point outing Sunday, it hurts me to write out the word “under,” but this prop is vastly overinflated with his recent performance.
To go along with that, they are playing Golden State tonight in what should be a game with a lot of fireworks. The Warriors are the fastest-paced teams in the nation and have a sub-par defense, but Dame has still gone under this prop in 10 of his last 15 games.
This is one of the better value plays, with the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet projecting it at closer to 46, with the under having a 73 percent chance of hitting.
Luka Doncic Over 16.5 Reb + Ast (-115 DraftKings)
I can’t go with three straight unders now, can I?
With Kyrie coming in, there have been some growing pains in projecting how Luka will perform. He has averaged 6.7 rebounds a game in the last two weeks, two below his seasonal average, and his assists totals have been below what is expected as well.
Yes, Irving changes how Dallas runs their offense, but there is a lot more opportunity for Luka to facilitate now, and he is due for some positive regression. Playing at home, in a pace-up spot, against the 26th-ranked defense, I am loving all the Luka overs. His rebound and assist combo prop is simply the best value out there.