Keegan Murray Over 12.5 Pts + Ast (-110 DraftKings)
After his 30-point outing at Houston over a week ago, Murray has cooled off a bit, averaging 9.7 points per game over the last two weeks. With his five-point outing across 28 minutes on Saturday and now playing a top-10 defense in a pace-down spot, Murray’s props have come down too much.
The rookie has averaged 12 points per game alone and has shown in three of his last four games his scoring abilities. I have to imagine his props will continue to steadily climb over the course of the season, and I will continue riding the wave of his overs before the curve.
He has also shown his ability as a facilitator with three assists in his last game. At -110, I like the straightforward odds and will be throwing a single unit on this play.
Brook Lopez Under 7.5 rebounds (-120 FanDuel)
Going against a top-10 rebounding team in the country, I expect Milwaukee to struggle tonight on the boards and for Lopez to go under his rebound total.
I will say that Robert Williams and Grant Williams are both questionable, and with Boston already playing banged up, if both players miss, then this prop might not be as lucrative. But with their current ailments, the Bucks’ props are simply too high, and the under appears to be the way to go.
Lopez has averaged 12.5 boards in the last week, which is almost double his seasonal average of 6.6 per game. Those big numbers will come down, and playing the Celtics is a perfect matchup to do just that.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 46.5 Pts + Reb (-110 DraftKings)
Going right back to the Boston-Milwaukee game, I’m taking the under on the combo prop for Giannis.
Simply put, it’s tough to project this game with the injuries, but similar to Lopez’s rebounds, I expect Giannis’ props to be too high. For a projection I trust, the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet gives this prop going under a +20 percent expected value.
It’s never fun to fade the Greek Freak, but this seems like a solid opportunity to do just that.