Happy New Year!
It’s January 1st, and we’re looking to start the year off with a quick profit in the NBA First Basket market.
After surfing through all eight games on the slate, I’ve found my favorite couple of longshot first-basket bets for tonight. Let’s get right to it!
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Monday’s Best NBA First Basket Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks
The Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks are both poor at winning the tip. However, the Mavericks still stand out more than the Jazz to score first.
Utah has earned the tip in 33% of games. The Jazz have also hit the first field goal in 27% of matchups and have taken the game’s first field goal attempt in 33% of games. It’s ultimately taken the Jazz 1.8 shots to score their first basket.
On the other hand, the Mavericks have only won the tip in 36% of matchups. The difference here is that Dallas has still added the first field goal in 58% of games this season. The Mavericks have also taken the game’s first field goal attempt in 52% of games.
Even if Dallas doesn’t win the tip, the Mavericks are more likely to defend well enough to get the ball and then score first. Utah isn’t nearly as consistent early as Dallas with its shooting.
Dallas’ starting lineup should include Luca Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Dereck Lively, Dante Exum, and Derrick Jones Jr. Luak Doncic leads the team in first field goals with eight. He’s also attempted the team’s first field goal in 33% of games, leading the team.
Let’s take a chance on Doncic at +600. There’s value there.
Bet: Luka Doncic (+600)
Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Clippers
The Los Angeles Clippers have been on a roll lately. However, they’re still not elite at scoring first. Los Angeles has won the tip in only 39% of games and has scored the first field goal in just 32% of matchups. The Clippers have even attempted the first field goal in less than 50% of games this year.
Meanwhile, Miami has added the tip in 56% of games and has scored the first field goal in 53% of matchups. The Heat is much more consistent, taking the first field goal in nearly 60% of games this season.
The probability favors the Heat to score first.
Miami has had many different combinations to start games this season. However, the starting five are likely Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Kevin Love, Jaime Jaquez Jr., and Kyle Lowry.
Adebayo leads the team with nine first field goals because he takes the first field goal attempt in 59% of games. He’s also hit the team’s first field goal in 41% of games.
The following two on the list for scoring the team’s first field goal are Duncan Robinson and Jimmy Butler. Both won’t be in the starting lineup. Let’s ride it out with Adebayo at +330.
Bet: Bam Adebayo (+330)
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