NBA First Basket will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day here, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
Tucker | Adebayo | Brown | Horford
|Prop||Tucker +1500 | Adebayo +1100 | Brown +1600, +1100 | Horford +3600|
|Matchup||Heat vs. Celtics|
|Time||8:30 p.m. ET|
The Celtics host to take on the Heat in Game 4 on Monday. Robert Williams (61% opening-tip win rate) will be taking on Bam Adebayo (66% win rate) in the opening tip-off. Bam is 3-2 vs. Williams on opening tips over the past two seasons.
Several players are questionable (noted in red below) tonight, if Williams is out, Al Horford would likely jump for the opening tip. Horford is 2-1 against Bam on opening tips over the past two seasons.
Boston is first in the league at scoring first, scoring first 65% of the time. Miami is slightly below league average and scores first 49% of the time. Boston has won 2-of-3 opening tip-offs in this playoff series, but Miami has scored first twice.
Assuming Williams starts, I like Miami to win the tip and PJ Tucker or Bam Adebayo to get the first look. Tucker’s usage in early possessions during the playoffs is almost double that of the regular season. If Horford starts I like Jaylen Brown to get the first shot.
Picks: Tucker First FG +1500 | Adebayo Exact Method — “Other” (+1100) | Brown Exact Method — 3PT (+1600), Other (+1100) | Horford Exact Method — 3PT (+3600)
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