NBA Best Bets Today | Expert Picks for Saturday, January 27

Who’s ready for some incredible basketball on national television all day long on this fine Saturday? You are! And that means we’ve got you covered with our NBA best bets today — expert picks for Saturday, January 27, featuring best bets and picks for all three of today’s ABC tripleheader games.

Beyond our expert Heat vs Knicks best bets, 76ers vs Nuggets best bets, and Lakers vs Warriors best bets, we have three more picks from across the board in the NBA on Saturday.

So let’s get to today’s best NBA bets!

Heat vs. Knicks

Knicks -5 (Play to -7)

By Jim Turvey

The New York Knicks look to stay red hot against the Miami Heat on Saturday in a marquee ABC afternoon game.

The Knicks have absolutely taken off since acquiring OG Anunoby, sporting an 11-2 record in that stretch, with the two losses coming by a combined eight points. Their defense has been absolutely suffocating, and it’s no shock they are also 10-3 ATS in that same stretch, as their spread differential of late has been outstanding (third in the league over the past two weeks, per Cleaning the Glass).

On the other end of the spectrum, the Miami Heat are quite literally last in the league in spread differential in the past two weeks and have failed to cover their last six games, including five straight losses. If recency is to be weighed even a little, the Knicks have to be a hammer play.

And that’s even before the fact that for full season numbers, I have this as a must-bet for New York. The Knicks own a +5.1 adjusted net rating, compared to -1.0 for the Heat. Even bumping a bit for Terry Rozier now in Miami, and dropping a bit for Isaiah Hartenstein being questionable for Saturday’s game, and it’s hard not to like -5.

I would bet this to Knicks -7.

Pick: Knicks -5 | Play to -7

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76ers vs. Nuggets

Nuggets -4.5 (Play to -5.5)

By Bryan Fonseca

I noted this in our single game guide today: The Nuggets have had four bad blowout losses this season.

They lost 110-89 to the Minnesota Timberwolves on November 1, then covered the -6.5 against the Dallas Mavericks two days later. The first on the road, the latter at home. The same went down as the Houston Rockets obliterated them 105-86 on November 24 and Denver covered a -11.5 spread against the San Antonio Spurs two days later.

Fast forward to December 29, Oklahoma City came to Denver and steamrolled them 119-93, though the Nuggets were on the second of a back-to-back, then two days later, they covered against the Charlotte Hornets, a spread of -16.5, winning by 18.

The last? Thursday at New York, losing by 38. Give me Denver to bounce back again agaist the Sixers.

Pick: Nuggets -4.5 | Play to -5.5

Rockets vs. Nets

Rockets +4.5

By Michael Arinze

The Nets put in a solid effort in their 96-94 loss to the Timberwolves on Thursday night. Brooklyn covered the spread as home underdogs, but now the bookmakers have installed the Nets as home favorites when they host the Rockets on Saturday.

This will be the ninth time this season that the Nets opened as a favorite, laying four or more points.

However, Brooklyn is just 3-5 against the spread in this spot, with its three covers coming against Washington (2) and Detroit, the two worst teams in the league who have a combined 12 wins on the year.

Thus, if you take those two deplorable teams out of the mix, the Nets would be 0-4 against the spread this season in this price range.

Moreover, you’d have to go back to Dec. 8 to find the last time the Nets covered the spread in back-to-back games. With the Nets now up to -5.5 in the market, this is simply a bridge too far.

Take the Rockets to keep this game inside the number and possibly walk away with an outright win.

Pick: Rockets +4.5

Hornets vs. Jazz

Brandon Miller Over 16.5 Points

By Joe Dellera

This is a great bounce back spot for Miller, who had been rolling over the last few games but hit a bit of a wall against Houston after only taking eight shots.

Here, he gets a matchup against the Utah Jazz who have a mid-ranked defense at 14th (115.4 defensive rating) but are actually playing at the fastest pace in the league (102.89) during the month of January.

Miller has been increasingly successful scoring at each level this season, and Utah has remained susceptible to midrange jumpers and 3s.

Considering all of this plus the increase in opportunity without Rozier, I expect Miller to bounce back here in a “Pace Up” spot for him.

Pick: Brandon Miller Over 16.5 Points

Ready to get in on the NBA betting action in North Carolina? You’ll soon be able to join in on NC sports betting, as the state is expected to come online on March 11!

Pelicans vs. Bucks

Pelicans +5.5

By Andrew O’Connor-Watts

The Pelicans got embarrassed against the Thunder on Friday, losing 107-83. Now they head on the road to face the Bucks in their first game with new head coach Doc Rivers.

Under their former coach, Adrian Griffin, the Bucks were one of the worst covers in the league at 17-26-1, but they pulled off a surprising win/cover over the Cavaliers — one of the hottest teams in the league — in their first game without Griffin at the helm, then lost to that same Cavs team last night. I expect better things ahead for the Bucks, but that their issues from earlier in the season won’t magically disappear in Rivers’ first game as coach. The Bucks are just 4-9 ATS after a loss.

Meanwhile, the Pelicans have been resilient. Since starting the season 4-6 — a stretch that ended with a five-game losing streak — the Pelicans have lost consecutive games only twice. New Orleans is 12-6 straight up after a loss and 9-4 against winning teams (49.3% ROI). I think the Pelicans pull off an upset, but I’ll take the points here for added security. Feels free to wait for official word on Zion Williamson’s status, who missed Friday’s game with a bone contusion, but I’ll take +5 before it falls any further from the opening number of +6.5. I see value on the Pelicans at any underdog price, but reduce risk past +4.

Pick: Pelicans +5.5 | Play to +4

Lakers vs. Warriors

LeBron James Over 30.5 Points

By Joe Dellera

One thing LeBron does is consistently get up to compete against Steph Curry. Over the last three seasons, LeBron is averaging 29.5 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 5.7 assists in head-to-head matchups against Curry. That’s a 39.9 points+rebounds average and his two misses on 30.5 are 29 and 30.

The Lakers have listed both LeBron and AD on the report. Even though they have been consistently available despite injury designations, if AD misses this game, then LeBron would naturally see additional upside.

This matchup against the Warriors is a strong one. Over the last month, the Warriors are the worst defense in the league and they’ve been mid in Rebound%.

Lebron has averaged 31.9 points this season and exceeded this line in 59% of games. I fully expect him to do so tonight against the Warriors.

Pick: LeBron James Over 30.5 Points