Mavericks vs Warriors: Take the Short 'Dog

Action Network contributor Michael Arinze provides his betting picks and prediction for the TNT showdown between the Mavericks and Warriors on Tuesday.

Mavericks vs. Warriors Odds

Mavericks Odds +1
Warriors Odds -1
Moneyline -109 / -111
Over/Under 232.5
Time Tuesday, 10 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Here’s everything you need to know about Mavericks vs. Warriors on Tuesday, April 2 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today’s game.

The Mavericks will wrap up their five-game road trip with a visit to the Bay Area to take on the Warriors on Tuesday.

Dallas enters the game on a seven-game winning streak and is now the fifth seed in the Western Conference standings. If we go back even further, the Mavericks are on an 11-1 run in their last 12 games.

While the combination of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving is enough to scare opposing teams, the Mavericks are starting to realize just how good they can be with a little more commitment on the defensive end of the court.

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Mavericks vs. Warriors Prediction

Pick: Mavericks +1.5 (-115)

Mavericks Betting Outlook

Dallas might point to a 137-120 loss to the Pacers in early March as the moment it turned its season around. After the All-Star break, it posted a 2-5 record and the worst defensive rating (126.0) over that span.

Since then, the Mavericks own a defensive rating of 107.1, the fourth-best mark in the league during that stretch.

Interestingly, the Mavs had a six-game winning streak heading into the All-Star break. Thus, you could argue that the last thing they probably wanted was a pause in the schedule.

A closer look at the Mavericks defense leading up to the All-Star break reveals a team that had already started to make positive strides defensively, ranking eighth in efficiency (111.3) during that period.

It’s also worth noting that Dallas’ improved play coincided with the frontcourt additions of P.J. Washington from Charlotte and Daniel Gafford from Washington at the trade deadline.

To acquire Washington, Dallas sent Grant Williams, Seth Curry and a first-round pick to the Hornets, while the Wizards landed Richaun Holmes and a 2024 first-round pick in exchange for Gafford.

As a result, the Mavericks already had a plan to improve the team, so I’m willing to concede that they just got a bit sidetracked following the All-Star break.

Washington is a capable wing defender with length, while Gafford helps fortify the Mavericks’ interior defense by protecting the rim.

Adding both players means there’s less of a defensive burden on the two Mavericks superstars, Doncic and Irving.

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Warriors Betting Outlook

Golden State also comes into this contest on a winning streak after taking four games on the road to finish with a 4-1 trip. Overall, the Warriors improved to 22-15 on the highway, but it’s at home where they’ve surprisingly struggled.

The Dubs are just 18-19 at the Chase Center, the worst home record for any team with a winning record in the league.

As unlikely as it may seem, Golden State’s primary goal is to stay ahead of the Houston Rockets for the 10th and final seed in the playoff play-in tournament.

Except for Draymond Green, the numbers for the Warriors’ core players are all down this season. Stephen Curry’s scoring is down from 29.4 to 26.6 points. Klay Thompson dropped from 21.9 to 17.3. Andrew Wiggins went from 17.1 to 12.9.

And while Jordan Poole might not have particularly meshed well with the team, he still averaged 20.4 points per game in his final year with Golden State.

The Warriors went from having three 20-point scorers in the previous campaign to just one this season.

Golden State’s struggles at home are a warning sign that something’s not quite right with this team. What’s worse is there doesn’t appear to be a ready-made solution to remedy the situation.

Mavericks vs. Warriors Picks, Odds

Given the Mavericks’ current form, they would be a nightmare for any team in the league to face. Dallas has also relished the challenge of winning on the road, as it’s tied for the second-fewest losses in the Western Conference at 23-14.

The Mavericks are a team looking to move up in the standings, while the Warriors are simply trying to stay afloat.

There’s also a clear dichotomy in this matchup, with one team being able to win on the road and another struggling at home. The Warriors have already lost to the Mavericks by double digits in the two meetings this season.

After shopping around, BetMGM is still dangling the Mavericks at the opening number of +1.5, considering that most sportsbooks have already adjusted the line to +1.

With home-court advantage just not being the same for the Warriors, the Mavericks are a threat to keep their winning streak alive.

Pick: Mavericks +1.5 (-115)