The Mavericks’ backs are firmly pressed against the wall, and it could all end tonight. The Warriors have looked like the team that’s won three-of-four NBA titles. That same core of players are looking great, while their younger guys have stepped up on the big stage. Does Golden State punch their ticket to the NBA Finals, or will Dallas live to see another day?
Dallas Mavericks (PK) vs. Golden State Warriors Parlay Odds & Picks
(Tip-Off 9 p.m. ET)
The Warriors were in cruise control in Game 3 as, unlike in Game 2, they led for most of this matchup and came away with the 109-100 victory.
It’s win or go home for the Mavericks as they’re down 3-0 in the series.
It’s certainly no fault of Luka Doncic as he’s thrown up 40 and 42 points in his last two games and is shooting nearly 50% from the floor.
Jalen Brunson has been right next to Luka, averaging 21.6 points in this series and shooting 51% from the floor. These two are certainly going to keep that pace going if they want to keep their season alive.
The Mavericks have played their style of basketball that got them to this point — shoot a lot from behind the arc. The Mavs finished the season sixth with 38 three-point attempts per game and made 13.5. They’ve had to do quite a bit of catching up, and so 52% of their shots have come from three-point range, but they’re hitting just 33%.
They play with a smaller lineup, and that’s why they live or die by the three. The lack of presence on the boards hinders them from getting second-chance opportunities, so if they don’t hit their shots, it’s a usual one-and-done possession thanks to a 20.5 offensive rebounding percentage.
The Mavs have just not been able to stop all the options the Warriors have on the floor. Golden State has gotten consistency from everyone in the starting lineup, and then Jordan Poole has been coming off the bench and averaging 17.3 points in 27.6 minutes.
Steph Curry has been especially amazing as he’s averaging 28.0 points and 4.7 threes per game. What’s made it tough for Dallas to defend is that Curry has been driving the lane in this series. So concerned with not having him open for three, it’s allowing him to drive to the lane where he has been dangerous from short range.
This is a team with the same core of players that have won three championships. They know how to come through when the lights are the brightest, and they’ve quickly put away the doubts people have after the Memphis series.
Leg 1: Warriors ML (+100)
Game Total O/U 215.5
Outside of Doncic and Brunson, Dallas has not been shooting well. They’re going to do their best to stay in this game with volume shooting, but Golden State is actually a top-five perimeter defending team.
The Warriors are due for a dud game. They’re up 3-0, if they lose, they could win on their home floor, so I don’t think they’ll have the fire to close it out. While I still believe they’ll win, they won’t have a big offensive game.
Leg 2: Under 215.5
Luka Doncic points O/U 34.5
Luka is not going to go quietly out of the playoffs. That’s just not who he is. He’s shot 23 times in each of the last two games, and he’ll continue to put that same volume. With his 50% shooting in this series, he’ll get close to 40 again.
Leg 3: Over 34.5
Total parlay odds on FanDuel: +1048
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