Lakers vs. Warriors Odds & Picks: Expect A Warriors Bounce-Back

Game 2 of the 2023 Steph Curry versus LeBron James series tips off at 9:00 PM ET on Thursday with the Warriors looking to even the series at one game a piece at home.

In Game 1, we saw Anthony Davis utterly dominate the Warriors despite a difficult matchup with Draymond Green and Kevon Looney, as he erupted for 30 points on 11-19 shooting and 23 total rebounds in 44 (!!) minutes.

With their backs against the wall a bit after losing home-court advantage, the Warriors will likely scheme against Davis to prevent a repeat performance in Game 2 and do whatever they can to even the series and head back to LA. With Steve Kerr at the helm, I have full confidence they’ll be able to do just that.


Lakers Warriors
Spread +6 (-106) -6 (-114)
Moneyline +215 -260
Total 227.0

Odds and lines are accurate at the time of publication


Warriors -3.5 (1H) (-114, FanDuel)

The spread may seem wide after what we saw in Game 1, but there are also some aspects of Game 1 that feel difficult to repeat, starting with Davis’ performance. While a 30-20 game isn’t necessarily unrepeatable, the likelihood that we see Davis play 44 minutes again feels like a longshot. On top of that, the Warriors shooting 40.6% from the field overall feels like something we should expect to regress to the norm a bit as well as the fact that they only got to the free-throw line six times last game. This, of course, is on top of the multitude of adjustments we likely see from Kerr and company.

On top of likely adjustments and regression on both sides, teams down 0-1 at home this postseason have sported a 5-0 record with an average winning margin of nearly 13 points. On top of this trend, the Warriors were 23-16-1 against the spread (ATS) as home favorites this season (59.0%) and 28-16-1 ATS (63.6%) overall as a home team this season. For as bad as they were on the road, only Denver was a better team ATS at home than the Warriors.

Whether the Warriors hold up over a full 48 minutes remains to be seen given how dominant the Lakers have been inside, but I fully expect this team to come out of the gates with a chip on their shoulder, pulling me to the first-half spread of only -3.5.

Risk: 1.14 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit.

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