Lakers vs. Grizzlies Odds
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
The Los Angeles Lakers went into FedExForum and won Game 1 of their series with the Memphis Grizzlies in an emphatic win Sunday to steal home-court advantage from the No. 2 team in the West. The loss was even more impactful for the Grizzlies because Ja Morant sustained a potentially significant injury to his already battered right hand and could not finish the game. His status for Game 2 remains in question ahead of the early evening tip.
Can the Grizzlies defend their home court if Morant can’t go, or will the Lakers coast to a 2-0 series lead on their way back to LA for game 3? Here’s my betting preview for Game 2 of Lakers vs. Grizzlies, including analysis of the odds and a prediction.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers won Game 1 on the shoulders (particularly the right one) of Davis. A lot of the attention was paid to Rui Hachimura and Austin Reaves both exceeding 20 points, but the impact that Davis had on both ends was unbelievable. Davis is certainly injury prone, but when he is on the floor his impact is generational and he has a legitimate case for being a top-five player when healthy.
The Grizzlies shot 5-of-21 with Davis as the defender at the rim (23.8%) and 0-of-5 on 3-pointers contested by Davis, according to tracking from NBA Advanced Stats. The Lakers had an unbelievable 96.1 Defensive Rating with AD on the floor in Game 1. With Morant potentially out of the lineup, I would expect the Grizzlies to counter the Lakers by going small and attempting to get up more 3s. It’s pretty clear that Davis completely eliminates the Grizzlies’ rim game, so the Lakers’ wings and guards will need to be locked in defending the perimeter.
Offensively, the Lakers pretty much got whatever they wanted as they finished with an unbelievable 130.6 Offensive Rating. The Lakers were able to generate lots of opportunities in transition as they had an elite 24.5% transition rate (97th percentile). They also got plenty of clean looks from deep, attempting 38% of their shots from the 3-point line and converting on 43% of those looks. Their half-court Offensive Rating was an impressive 107.3 and their Offensive Rebound Rate was elite — they collected 35.6% of all their misses.
It was a dominant offensive performance and while they may not repeat their 128 point mark, there is little reason to expect the Grizzlies defense to improve especially considering Tyus Jones will likely be inserted into the starting five. The Lakers may regress a bit in Game 2, but I find it unlikely that they will crater and throw up a dud offensively.
Expect the Grizzlies offense to look much different without Morant if he’s unable to go. They will likely push the ball far less often and attack the rim less often as well — Morant finished second on the NBA in drives per game (20.3) this season, according to NBA Advanced Stats. I would also expect the Grizzlies to improve in the turnover department as Tyus Jones has proven himself to be one of the best game-managers in the NBA.
Given Davis’ presence in the middle for L.A., I would anticipate the Grizzlies playing much more small-ball lineups as they make an effort to space the floor more effectively. Xavier Tillman really doesn’t add much offensively in this series so I would expect his minutes to dwindle.
We should see much more Luke Kennard, Santi Aldama, and John Konchar minutes so I would look to those guys as interesting over plays due to a projected minutes increase. The Lakers also haven’t done a great job of limiting opponent 3-point attempts this season, ranking just 22nd in 3-point attempt rate allowed on defense.
Expect the Grizzlies’ game plan to revolve around getting shooters open looks from 3 as they attempt to mitigate the impact of Davis at the rim.
This is a tough one to call with Morant listed as questionable.
I expect the Grizzlies to game plan better offensively so I will go with their team total over in this spot. The Lakers defense is completely unimpressive outside of Anthony Davis and the Grizzlies should space the floor better with Morant out and Jones in.
Take the over on the Grizzlies team total at 113.5 and play it up to 114.5.
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