Knicks vs Nuggets: Expect Denver to Cruise at Home

Action Network contributor Chris Baker provides breaks down his betting picks and prediction for a must-see matchup between the Knicks and Nuggets on Thursday.

Knicks vs. Nuggets Odds

Bucks Odds +9.5
Celtics Odds -9.5
Moneyline +340 / -450
Over/Under 207.5
Time Thursday, 9 p.m. ET
TV NBA League Pass
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Here’s everything you need to know about Knicks vs. Nuggets on Thursday, Mar. 21 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today’s game.

The Knicks will travel into altitude to take on the Nuggets after a hard-fought win over the Warriors on Monday night. Can the Nuggets get revenge on the Knicks after an embarrassing blowout at Madison Square Garden earlier this season? Or will the Knicks pull off another road upset?

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Knicks vs. Nuggets Prediction

Pick: Nuggets -8.5

Knicks Betting Outlook

Tom Thibodeau went small with Deuce McBride starting for Precious Achiuwa against the Warriors and would be wise to continue that strategy as that lineup was elite against the Warriors.

It’s a tiny sample size, but that lineup — Jalen Brunson, McBride, Donte DiVincenzo, Josh Hart and Isaiah Hartenstein — is an insane +46.8 across 60 possessions this season. If McBride is going to continue to shoot 41% from 3, he’s going to earn himself a permanent spot in the Knicks rotation.

This will be a tough matchup for the Knicks defense as they have to find a way to limit Nikola Jokic with effectively just one center (Hartenstein) in their lineup. Hartenstein is also on a minutes restriction, so Jokic should have opportunities to abuse either Achiuwa or Jericho Sims.

The Knicks will also be without OG Anunoby, which is notable as they have been a drastic 30 points better per 100 possessions with Anunoby on the floor compared to when he is off. The defense suffers massively when he is out as their defensive rating climbs from 98.6 to 116.6 when he is off the court.

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Nuggets Betting Outlook

The Nuggets should have offensive success for all of the reasons mentioned above.

I also expect Denver to be focused as it tries to get revenge on the Knicks after losing in embarrassing fashion at Madison Square Garden in January. That was easily the biggest blowout loss the Nuggets have experienced this season, and was also one of the worst losses of the Jokic era.

I think there will be a little extra motivation to prove that result was a fluke. Also, Anunoby was a major factor in that game as he completely neutralized Jamal Murray and led the Knicks in scoring. His absence will be massive and I expect the Nuggets offense to have success.

Knicks vs. Nuggets Picks, Odds

I like the Nuggets to cover the -8.5 as they are coming off to lackluster performances against the Timberwolves and Mavericks.

This also a bad spot for the Knicks, who are coming off an outlier shooting game and a hard-fought win over the Warriors in which Hart and McBride played the entire game. Brunson also played 35 minutes in that win and this is the Knicks fourth and final game of their road trip.

Traveling into altitude after playing major minutes isn’t ideal and I think the Knicks could be a step slow. I’ll be betting Nuggets -8.5 and also looking to play some alternate lines as I wouldn’t be shocked if this turns into a blowout.

Pick: Nuggets -8.5