Kings vs Suns: Trust Durant & Co. in Phoenix

Action Network contributor Joe Dellera breaks down his expert Kings vs Suns prediction and picks for Tuesday, February 13.

Kings vs. Suns Odds

Kings Odds +4.5
Suns Odds -4.5
Moneyline +160 / -190
Over/Under 244.5
Time Tuesday, 10 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Here’s everything you need to know about Kings vs. Suns on Tuesday, Feb. 13 — our expert prediction and NBA betting picks for today.

The Sacramento Kings take on the Phoenix Suns tonight in an extremely important game for the Western Conference Standings. The Suns are 31-22 while the Kings are 30-22 sitting just a half-game back in the West. The Kingz won the first two matchups while the Suns won the most recent about a month ago in Phoenix. If the Kings win, they clinch the tiebreaker over the Suns for the season, if not, the game on April 12th between the two could be pivotal for Playoff positioning.

Let’s get to our Kings vs. Suns prediction and pick.

Kings vs. Suns Prediction

Pick: Suns -4.5

Kings Betting Outlook

The Kings look to keep pace in a crowded Western Conference. They come into this game relatively healthy and even though it is the front end of a back-to-back, this game against the Suns is one they should put forward their best effort.

The Kings have the 14th-Best Adjusted Net Rating (+0.8) and they’ve held up against the league’s toughest opponents with the sixth most difficult strength of schedule, per Dunks and Threes. Despite that, they are just 8-12 Straight Up with a -7.3 point differential and -6.6 Spread Differential against the Top 10 teams in Point Differential, per Cleaning the Glass. They have struggled against the league’s best teams and have not been able to rise to the occasion.

One player I’ll keep an eye on is Domontas Sabonis. Sabonis has historically struggled to score in this matchup. He has scored 20+ points just twice in 13 matchups against Nurkic throughout his career. With a points prop at 19.5, it’s an under to consider. However, he has improved of late and just recorded a 21-point triple-double in their last matchup on January 16th. If the Kings want to succeed in this game, Sabonis will need to take command of this matchup.

Suns Betting Outlook

The Phoenix Suns made some changes at the deadline and acquired Royce O’Neale and David Roddy in a 3-Team trade with the Nets and the Grizzlies while sending off Chimezie Metu, Yuta, Watanabe, Keita Bates-Diop, and Jordan Goodwin. Overall, this was a clear upgrade for the Suns’ depth. O’Neale only played 11 minutes in his debut but brought his defensive versatility to a Suns team that could use a boost on that side of the floor.

The Suns have one of the most dynamic offenses in the league with Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal. Those lineups have been tremendous this season and the team has a +15.2 Point Differential with a 130.4 Offensive Rating, so while the defense is average, the offense is nearly unstoppable. Critically, when even one of them is on the floor the Suns have been solid. When at least one of Booker, Beal, and Durant is on the Court the team has a +5.6 Net Rating across 4858 possessions. In other words, the team has played 95.5% of their possessions with at least one of their 3 best players on the floor. This ability to stagger is invaluable.

Since Bradley Beal has returned and consistently played on December 29, 2023, the Suns are 16-7 with a +6.6 Net Rating with the league’s second-best Offense (120.9), per NBA Advanced Stats. Their one problem has been they turn the ball over at the fifth-highest frequency over this stretch and this opens them up to transition opportunities.

Kings vs. Suns Prediction, Odds

This matchup pits two teams that are close in record to each other but the underlying data favors the Phoenix Suns. The Kings will struggle to stop the Suns’ offense in this spot, and their relative difficulties against the league’s best teams seems to be an indictment on their ultimate ceiling this season.

I’ll lay the points with the Suns and back their elite offense tonight.

Pick: Suns -4.5