Heat vs Nuggets: Time for Statement Game from Butler

Action Network contributor Bryan Fonseca details his betting picks and prediction for the NBA Finals rematch between the Heat and Nuggets on Thursday.

Heat vs. Nuggets Odds

Heat Odds +5
Nuggets Odds -5
Moneyline +170 / -205
Over/Under 213.5
Time Thursday, 10 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Here’s everything you need to know about Heat vs. Nuggets on Thursday, Feb. 29 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

The finals rematch is here.

The Miami Heat have awoken, and the Denver Nuggets seem to be as well.

Let’s get to our Heat vs. Nuggets prediction and pick.

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Heat vs. Nuggets Prediction

Pick: Jimmy Butler over 29.5 PRA | Over 1.5 steals + blocks

Heat Betting Outlook

The Heat, you mean, the team that I think could go back to the Finals now?

The Heat’s body of work won’t 100 percent reflect how much better they’ve been, but they’ve won nine of their last 11 games and six straight on the road, and all but two of those teams have at least a realistic shot at the playoffs, if not will be in most certainly, like the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Heat have quietly played to a 18-12 road record, third best in the east and tied for fifth in the NBA.  On the road, they’re 17-12-1 ATS, sixth in the NBA, and 12-7 as a road underdog — fourth best.

Following a win, the Heat are 19-12-1 following a victory, the sixth best record ATS.

Regarding totals, what pops out is that the Heat have gotten 13 unders in 19 efforts as a road underdog, by percentage, that’s the fourth most unders in the league. With a rest advantage, they’ve been able to impose their plodding style, recording eight unders in 13 games in this situation, tied for fifth most unders by percentage with less rest.

On the injury front, Miami remains without Tyler Herro due to a knee injury. Kevin Love (heel) and Josh Richardson (shoulder) are also listed out, and Thomas Bryant will serve the last of his three-game suspension.

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Nuggets Betting Outlook

Four straight wins for the Nuggets puts them at 40-19 and 23-5 at home after smacking the Sacramento Kings last night. But Denver hasn’t been great against the spread this season, and although they’re elite, their a difficult bet.

ATS as a home favorite, they’re 14-13-1, outside the NBA’s top ten, and they’re just 4-7 ATS with no rest and 2-6 with a rest disadvantage — the worst mark in the NBA.

From an over/under standpoint, they’ve hit 17 unders in 28 games as a home favorite. They’ve hit six overs in 11 games with no rest and are 4-4 both ways at a rest disadvantage.

On the injury front, all the main characters are fully healthy.

Heat vs. Nuggets Picks, Odds

The Heat won in Game 2 of the Finals in Denver, but other than that, they haven’t won in Denver since 2016. They just don’t historically win their, and while the sharp side has been Heat to cover, the line is a stay away for me. And the total at 212.5 is just too low, though I’ve leaned under. That’s just too low for a modern NBA game.

But player prop wise, I’m riding the Jimmy Butler overs.

On the Action App, I’ve played Butler over points, rebounds and assists at 29.5 and over 1.5 steals and blocks on DraftKings at -120 and -125, respectively.

Pick: Jimmy Butler over 29.5 PRA | Over 1.5 steals + blocks