Heat vs. Mavericks: Bet Butler, Miami in Close Matchup

Action Network contributor Corey Parson previews Friday's matchup between the Miami Heat and Dallas Mavericks, including his betting prediction.

Heat vs. Mavericks Odds

Heat Odds +1.5
Mavericks Odds -1.5
Over/Under 219.5
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Miami Heat finish up a three game road trip in Dallas where they face the Mavericks Friday. It’s the first time both teams have faced off this season and the Mavericks will be a good litmus test for the surging Heat.

Miami has won seven of its past 10 games, while Dallas has dropped three straight and six of its past 10. How will tonight’s battle play out? Let’s take a look at the Heat vs. Mavericks odds and find value in a betting pick.

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Miami Heat

Going into the month of December the Miami Heat had a 10-12 record and looked nothing like the team that made the Eastern Conference finals last season. Injuries have played a huge part in their woes: Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo have all missed significant time this season. None of the Heat’s main players are on the injury report, which is good news for Heat bettors.

Bam Adebayo has been the Heat’s best and most reliable player so far. He has played in 41 of 46 Heat games, leads the team in scoring (21.5 PPG), rebounds (10.1 RPG) and Steals (1.1), but one man can’t carry a team.

Since the beginning of December the Heat have played much better and their turnaround just happens to coincide with Butler’s return to the lineup. While he has missed some games for injury management, Butler has played in 19 of the Heat’s 24 games in this stretch. They have gone 15-9 straight up over that span and 11-11-2 against the spread. In the 19 games Butler has played, the Heat are 12-7 SU and 9-8-2 ATS.

The Heat have really shined on the road during this stretch with a 7-5-1 ATS record since the start of December, tied with the Boston Celtics for the seventh-most profitable team over that time frame.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks are in the middle a crowded Western Conference entering Friday’s game. They currently sit in fifth place, despite a three-game losing streak, but they are 1.5 games behind the third-place Sacramento Kings and 1.5 games ahead of the 10th-place Oklahoma City Thunder. This game, which is part of a four-game home stretch will be critical for them.

The Mavericks have not been as good on defense this season as they were last year when they went to the Western Conference Finals. The Mavericks rank 25th in Defensive rating and have given up at least 130 in each of their last three games. Luka Doncic is having an MVP caliber season, but the Mavs have regressed as a team. They have to get their defense fixed if they expect to play deep into the playoff again this season.

Dallas has not been a good team to back and the betting window this season. On the season the Mavericks are 16-29-1 ATS, tied with the Houston Rockets for the worst mark in the NBA. Over the past two weeks, the Mavs have cover just two of their seven games. To be fair the Mavericks have been on the road most of the last two weeks, but at home the Mavericks are 9-13-1 ATS.

Dallas may turn it around this season, with Doncic anything is possible, but there is no way I can back them at the window currently.

Heat-Mavericks Pick

The spread here is extremely tight with the Mavericks favored by as much as 1.5-points at BetMGM and listed as 1-point dogs at other books. Be sure to monitor line movement and shop for the best line using Action Network’s NBA odds page.

This game will likely come down to the finals minutes and Miami is playing better basketball than the Mavericks at the moment. In a pick’em, I have to take the value bet and the Heat have shown they are a better bet recently on the road than the Mavs are at home.

I think they will win a close game and I’ll gladly take their line at +1.5 up to -1.

Pick: Heat +1.5