Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: Total Is Too High in Minnesota

Action Network contributor Corey Parson previews how to bet Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves, including updated odds, picks & predictions for Friday's game.

Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Odds

Grizzlies Odds -3
Timberwolves Odds +3
Over/Under 238.5
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Memphis Grizzlies wrap up a rough five-game road trip in Minnesota agains the Timberwolves Friday night. The Grizzlies are looking to snap their four-game losing streak, while the Timberwolves look like they are finally catching a good rhythm as they enter a six-game homestand.

The Timberwolves and Grizzlies have split their two prior meetings, so where’s the value in the game tonight? Let’s take a look at the odds for this NBA Rivals Week matchup between the Grizzlies and Timberwolves.

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Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies have largely lived up to their lofty expectations so far this season, but they’ve hit a speed bump during this stretch. Their current losing streak is their longest of the season and it coincides with a five game road trip against teams staring up at them in the Western Conference standing.

Just before this road trip, the Grizzlies reeled off an 11-game winning streak so there is no real reason for concern, but they certainly don’t want to go 0-5 here.

Over the past few seasons one of the Grizzlies strengths was how well they played on the road, that has not been the case this season. The Grizzlies are 11-14 straight up and 9-15-1 against the spread away from Memphis.

According to Bet Labs, they are the fourth-least profitable team to bet when they play on the road this season, so it’s obvious they have been overvalued on the road this season. Yet somehow, Memphis is once again a favorite on the road tonight.

The Grizzlies have a +11.0 Net Rating in home games thanks to their 106.4 Defensive Rating. When the Grizzlies go on the road, though, that changes. Their Net Rating on the road is -1.6 and they allow 6.4 more points per 100 possessions on defense away from home. Their defensive intensity just hasn’t traveled well this season.

Desmond Bane is listed as questionable with sore knee, which would be another tough loss for Memphis team already down Steven Adams in the starting lineup and John Konchar off the bench.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves enter tonight’s game winners of six of their last 10 games and they are 9-4 since Jan. 1. The Wolves have been taking advantage of some of the league bottom feeders (they’ve lost to some of them too) during that stretch. They have also beaten the Nuggets and Cavaliers. Since the new year, the Timberwolves rank ninth in Offensive Rating and 11th in Defensive Rating.

To the Timberwolves’ credit, they have played well enough to win at home this season — 16-10 SU — but they are just 13-13 ATS. On average, the Wolves have been a 3.3-point favorite at home, tonight they are a 3-point home underdogs. As a home dog this season, they are 7-3 SU and ATS.

Early betting splits for tonight’s game show betting tickets are landing on the road favorite Grizzlies. I would actually fade Memphis this evening. This is a good spot for the Timberwolves: a home underdog against a team playing their fifth straight road game. And the money has fallen overwhelmingly on the Wolves spread so far, according to Action Network’s betting data.

Grizzlies-Timberwolves Pick

I’m actually focused on the over/under for this game. I’m actually focused on the over/under for this game. The total opened at 237.5 and that number is way too high. The last two times these teams met, the totals closed at 231.5, and 234. Their highest scoring game reached 217.

Regardless of the injuries on both sides, this game will have a playoff atmosphere, between two teams with some recent history. Additionally, there’s a trend that fits this game.

When two conference opponents with records above .500 have played this season, the under has hit at 52.9% (73-65-1). When those teams are Western Conference foes, the under has hit 55.7% of the time, according to Bet Labs.

This line is moving up, but I like the under here at 238.5.

Pick: Under 238.5 (Down to 237.5)