Bucks vs Warriors: Go For The Over on the Total

Action Network contributor Michael Fiddle details his betting picks and prediction for the Bucks vs. Warriors matchup on ESPN on Wednesday.

Bucks vs. Warriors Odds

Bucks Odds +4
Warriors Odds -4
Moneyline +140 / -165
Over/Under 227.5
Time Wednesday, 10 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Here’s everything you need to know about Bucks vs. Warriors on Wednesday, March 6 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

The Milwaukee Bucks head to the Bay Area on Wednesday to take on the Golden State Warriors in a cross-conference NBA showdown.

The Bucks have won six in a row and are coming off a victory over the Clippers in Los Angeles, while the Warriors got manhandled in a 52-point loss to the Celtics on Sunday.

Where does the betting value lie in this one? Let’s get to our Bucks vs. Warriors pick and prediction.

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Bucks vs. Warriors Prediction

Pick: Over 226

Bucks Betting Outlook

The Milwaukee Bucks are a revamped team coming out of the All-Star Break. The defense is so much better with new head coach Doc Rivers having some time to practice and implement some changes.

However, before the last game against the Clippers, star Giannis Antetokounmpo hurt his Achilles and was ruled out. I would consider him doubtful for this contest.

As I’ll detail, the NBA has been trending toward league-wide unders because of the way the fouls and rules are being reinterpreted. That may not be the case for Milwaukee, though, as the total is dropping because it gets to the line so often.

However, if the Bucks are missing Giannis, I expect their attack to be more perimeter-oriented, leaning on the shooting of Damian Lillard.

If these teams take a shooting-and-spacing approach, the line movement won’t add up with the way these teams would be playing.

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Warriors Betting Outlook

The Warriors just allowed 140 points to the Celtics and now take on the Bucks just two days later. I don’t expect a similar barrage, but the Bucks can still score with the best of them.

The Warriors are relying on young talent with the absence of Andrew Wiggins and the decreased role of Kevon Looney. The younger players sometimes miss a beat on rotations, close out a bit slower and have moments of getting lost.

It will sort itself out over time — especially with Draymond Green being the vocal leader of the defense — but until then, expect some road bumps and target Warriors overs.

Bucks vs. Warriors Picks, Odds

Totals are dropping across the league. Unders have been cashing at a rate near 70% since the All-Star break, as the referees are swallowing their whistles a bit and allowing more contact. Teams that strive to get to the free-throw line are seeing fewer opportunities, and thus, the offensive efficiency has fallen off.

In this Bucks vs. Warriors game, I think the move toward the under doesn’t apply to the style of play here.

Without Antetokounmpo, the Bucks and Warriors should play this game on the perimeter and clear 226 points. I would still wait to play this because once Giannis is confirmed out, the total will drop some more.

Pick: Over 226