Bucks vs Grizzlies: Health the Deciding Factor

Action Network contributor, Chris Baker, explains why you should back the Bucks against a Grizzlies team that looks for hope in a bleak season.

Bucks vs. Grizzlies Odds

Bucks Odds -11.5
Grizzlies Odds +11.5
Moneyline -650 / +475
Over/Under 223.5
Time Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Here’s everything you need to know about Bucks vs. Grizzlies on Thursday, Feb. 15 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

Let’s get to tonight’s Bucks vs. Grizzlies pick and prediction.

Bucks vs. Grizzlies Prediction

Pick: Bucks -10.5 | Play to -12

This is a tough spot for the Grizzlies as they face a Bucks team coming off an embarrassing loss to the Heat, while coming off their own back-to-back. The Grizzlies have been historically bad on offense over their past 10 games and rank last in offensive rating (106.3) and free-throw rate (14.0). They’re also 27th in effective field goal percentage (52.5%) and 28th in turnover rate (15.2%).

They’ve gone 1-9 over their past 10 games and have shown no indication of being a serious team. The only thing going for Memphis is the fact that it ranks second in offensive 3-point attempt rate over that span (43.0%). However, the Grizzlies have only been able to convert 36.8% of these looks (21st), so they’ll need to be more efficient from 3 if they are to have any hope of pulling off this upset.

Jaren Jackson Jr. is a capable defender, but outside of him, Memphis isn’t playing a true center in its rotation. Not having any quality defensive bigs is a recipe for disaster against Giannis Antetokounmpo. I’d expect Antetokounmpo to attack the rim at will in this game.

On the other side of the ball, the Grizzlies have been slightly better over their past 10 games and rank 19th in defensive rating. Still, this is a difficult matchup because the Bucks rank fifth in adjusted offensive rating on the season. The Bucks should be able to attack the paint at will and force the Grizzlies into consistent rotations on the defensive end. Outside of Jackson, there’s no one on Memphis’ roster who can feasibly hang with Antetokounmpo or Damian Lillard.

Bucks vs. Grizzlies Prediction, Odds

I’d lean toward backing the Bucks in this spot. Milwaukee is fully healthy, aside from Khris Middleton, and I expect the Bucks to come play with urgency following an embarrassing home loss. Play this up to -12.

Pick: Bucks -10.5 | Play to -12