Having a stake in the NBA Draft Lottery while the conference finals are getting underway isn’t exactly an enviable position to be in. Four teams are still playing for a title while everyone else is preparing for the draft, free agency and, effectively, next year. But there’s still plenty of good that can come from the evening, especially for a team that is only stopping by for a layover.
That figures to be the Miami HEAT’s plan, at least. Nobody within the organization planned to be here when the year began, but a likely playoff team just couldn’t fight off an injury plague that left them on the outside looking in on the postseason.
There isn’t a franchise in the league that couldn’t benefit by adding a young player from the top of the talent pool, however, so while some could look at an invite to the event in Manhattan as a sign of disappointment, it’s really an opportunity. What complicates matters is just how many opportunities there really are, both good and bad.
THE ODDS
By finishing with the 10th worst record during the regular season – Phoenix and Oklahoma City just missed out in the West while Utah and Indiana both finished one game in front of Miami – the HEAT are far more likely to have the No. 10 pick than anything else. They’ll also have a slim, but realistic, shot at jumping into the top three and a slightly higher chance to drop below No. 10 if another team leapfrogs.
1st – 1.10%
2nd - 1.30%
3rd – 1.58%
10th – 86.97%
*11th – 8.88%
*12th - 0.18%
*13th - .001%
The individual odds on those final three slots don’t really matter, as it amounts to about a nine percent chance that Miami doesn’t get it’s first round pick. The reason for that is because way back in 2010, the HEAT sent out a few future draft picks as part of sign-and-trades to Cleveland and Toronto in order to secure long-term contracts for LeBron James and Chris Bosh. This 2015 pick, Top-10 protected, went to Cleveland and was eventually transferred to Minnesota and Philadelphia, it’s current resting place.
So if any one of those 11-14 teams jump the HEAT and the ping-pong balls also don’t help Miami with a Top-3 choice, the pick goes to Philadelphia and Miami will have it’s 2016 pick. Otherwise, Miami picks this season and still owes Philadelphia a future Top-10 protected pick.
HOW IT WORKS
While the lottery may sound mysterious and daunting because the actual drawing happens behind closed doors, it’s really a simple process that simply wouldn’t make for very good television
As team representatives, including Miami’s Alonzo Mourning this year, mingle out on the television set, another rep – usually a front office executive, like the HEAT’s General Manager Andy Elisburg – is in the back room with the ping-pong balls. And in that room is a giant board showing all 1,000 computer-assigned, four-number combinations. Miami has a 1.1 percent chance at the top pick, which gives them 11 combinations, while the last-place Minnesota Timberwolves (25 percent chance at the top choice) have 250 possible combinations. The remaining teams have as many combinations as follows:
Minnesota – 250
New York - 199
Philadelphia - 156
Los Angeles Lakers - 119
Orlando - 88
Sacramento - 63
Denver - 43
Detroit - 28
Charlotte - 17
Miami - 11
Indiana - 8
Utah - 7
Phoenix – 6
Oklahoma City - 5
As the drawing begins, four numbered balls (of fourteen) are pulled out of the machine – just like any lottery you see on television – and everyone checks the combinations to see who got the first pick. Then the balls go back in the machine, another set of four are pulled out for the second pick, followed by another drawing for the third. Once the first three picks are selected, the remaining 11 picks are assigned based on reverse order of record. So even if Minnesota doesn’t get lucky, the worst they can do is the No.4 pick, while New York can go no lower than No. 5, Philadelphia no lower than No. 6, and so on.
Once the results are in, envelopes with team logos on them are organized in order and brought out to the main stage, where you see them on television.
No secrets here. It’s a regular, old lottery system that wouldn’t make for a very entertaining watch because nobody would have any clue who won until all the combinations can be double checked.
THE HISTORY OF LOW ODDS
While only the 1999 Charlotte Hornets (0.5 percent) have secured a Top-3 draft pick with odds as low or lower than Miami this season, there are a number of examples of teams ‘beating’ the percentages.
Of course none of this really matters beyond showing you a little itcouldhappen. The percentages are just the percentages. Nobody gets blessed or beaten by the lottery. Numbers don’t have feelings. They don’t care. Odds will play out how they will.
And that’s all there is to it.