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Couper Moorhead

The Miami HEAT’s 2023-24 run is a complicated season to discuss. One with bright spots yet also one that fell short of previous and recent highs. One that neither stole away nor emboldened hope. One that proposed more questions than it could answer.

On one hand, so much can be explained by injuries and absences. Miami used a franchise-high 35 starting lineups. They didn’t have a single five-man group together for more than 200 minutes, with only two topping 100 after five hit that mark a season ago. Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro combined to play 102 of a possible 164 games. Kyle Lowry was traded for Terry Rozier and Rozier dealt with injuries, first his knee and then his neck. Butler was unavailable for the playoffs after suffering a knee injury in a Play-In game at Philadelphia. Teams don’t typically win much without their best players and their best lineups on the court.

On the other hand, we never really found out how good this team could be much less what their best lineups truly were. We could use the previous season’s incredible, somewhat miraculous run as a barometer, but that’s an apples-to-oranges scenario. Herro, Butler and Bam Adebayo played 499 total minutes with each other with a Net Rating of just +3.2, plus only 118 minutes with Rozier alongside that trio at a Net Rating of +1.0. Those minutes came irregularly, as soon as the team appeared to be fully healthy another injury would pop up, opportunities to develop rhythm and cohesion practically nonexistent. This group never got a real shot to prove how good they could be, but they also didn’t have the sort of dominant stretches – their six 20-point victories were the fewest among the 16 teams that made it to the postseason – which would garner contending-level confidence. That confidence existed because of what an iteration of this core had done before, but some relative struggles in fourth-quarter and late-game situations ,after a dominant showing in those minutes the season prior, allowed questions to seep into the even most stringent optimism.

In the end, the only thing that matters is the results. With 46 wins, Miami wound up in the No. 8 seed for the second year in a row after losing a Play-In game, the same path ahead of them as the year before, and now the season is over while eight other teams play out the second round. And yet, as ever, they were just three wins, a few possessions going differently, away from the No. 3 seed. Such is the NBA. Some years are more memorable than others, but each is an important piece of the larger tapestry. For every Finals run, there’s a 2020-21 season – the abbreviated season which ended in a sweep to Milwaukee – that informs what comes next.

If there’s anything specific that this group will hang its hat on, it’s the defense finishing No. 5 overall. Despite lacking a plethora of proven, veteran defenders on paper – Miami only had one player, Adebayo, above +1.0 in Defensive Estimated Plus/Minus, while the other four Top 5 teams averaged 4.5 – Adebayo and, with his ever-changing schemes, Erik Spoelstra pulled everything together after a somewhat rocky start for the fourth Top 5 and twelfth Top 10 defensive finish since Spoelstra became head coach in 2008.

“That was probably the most consistent thing,” Spoelstra said. “Where we weren’t necessarily able to find consistency with our three different offensive philosophies, we were able to find consistency more often than not on the defensive side of the floor. Even though we had a couple different ways of playing based on who was available.

“As long as you have a group that is committed to doing tough things. There’s no easy way about it. If you want to defend in this league you have to guard the ball, you have to take away easy baskets, you have to rebound, you have to do those kinds of things, and we had a group that took pride in that.”

Adebayo, a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year and captain for the first time following Udonis Haslem’s retirement, had maybe his most impressive season on that end in a career full of impressive seasons, embracing Spoelstra’s charge to forgo much of his own individual strengths – switching pick-and-rolls – for the betterment of the whole, toggling into more traditional drop coverages for most of the season while producing comparable numbers to the seven-footers who typically own that coverage. Spoelstra made timely use of his press-zone to flummox ill-equipped opponents, his gap-shrinking man-to-man schemes once again limiting opponents to one of the lowest rim-attempt frequencies in the league. Haywood Highsmith, when healthy, made his name known as a versatile wing defender while Caleb Martin, when healthy, was his usual destructive self chasing around guards. Everyone else filled in and did their jobs, even youngsters like Nikola Jovic finding his footing in the system. It wasn’t a dominant defense, the sort which overwhelmed opponents in a hailstorm of quick feet and long limbs, but it reliably gave them a chance to win every night.

The offense held things back, finishing No. 21 and in the bottom half of the league for the third time in five years despite above-average three-point shooting. Herro had a great start to the season, Butler remained key as a mismatch hunter, Duncan Robinson evolved with the dribble, Rozier offered real on-ball creation once he came aboard, Adebayo refined his approach in isolation and post play and Kevin Love’s five-out bench units were Miami’s most consistent source of punch. The pieces appeared to be in place, but the lack of continuity prevented it all coalescing into something that could produce 2024 levels of efficiency each night.

“We had basically three primary offensive philosophies this season, based on who was available,” Spoelstra said. “All things considered we were making strides in any one of those areas, but the consistency became a challenge to overcome.”

Two players who will most certainly remember this season as crucial steps in their just-beginning careers are Jovic and Jaime Jaquez Jr. A year ago, Jovic was injured, not playing and looking a little turned around when he did get minutes. This season started out much the same, at least as far as opportunity, but after a starting stint in late December he joined the starting group full time just before the All-Star break, shooting 39 percent from three the rest of the way with plus passing while holding his own on the defensive end. In just about three months a player full of potential became a core rotation piece.

“If you would’ve said [last year] that in the First Round series Niko would’ve been our starting power forward and doing the type of scheme things that he was doing defensively, and that we would have to rely on him in a certain way, you probably would’ve said no that’s no happening,” Spoelstra said.

Jaquez Jr. required no time to simmer, starting the third game of his career and scoring 20 in just his ninth appearance. All shoulders and elbows and forearms with soft after-contact touch, he immediately reminded of Butler, burrowing his way into the lane through bigger and smaller defenders alike, ever willing to get off the ball if the window wasn’t there. The culmination of his season happened in Christmas Day against Philadelphia, his 31-point, 10-rebound effort putting him in rare territory among rookies, then an injury kept him out of five games in mid-January. Teams started to adjust to his game a bit, the scouting report detailing his strengths and weaknesses as the final two months of his season proved uneven, 28 percent shooting from three limiting his overall impact.

“I would say sometimes they would try to send two, prepared for the trap especially down in the post is where I think the report was out on me,” Jaquez Jr. said.

Still, he appeared to regain traction in the final two games of the season, scoring 38 across two Toronto matchups at home, and with Miami in dire need of creation against Boston he delivered their most consistent downhill momentum until a hip injury in Game 4. He’s expected to finish First Team All-Rookie for good reason.

“Jaime exploded onto the scene, that was obvious for everyone to see,” Spoelstra said. “Then he got on to people’s scouting reports, it kind of changed for a little bit, he was injured, then when he came back I really felt he was a much better player. He was able to see things at a deeper level.”

Some will use this season as some sort of referendum on Herro after the Boston series, but though he was limited to just 42 games his numbers were right in line with each of his past two seasons. Yes, he shot 38 percent against the Celtics – including 24 points on 13 shots in a Game 2 victory – but like everyone else on the team in Butler and Rozier’s absences he was pushed into a different, outsized role against perhaps the best team in the league.

“The entire gameplan is to take him out. It wasn’t like it was rocket science,” Spoelstra said. “The gameplan for Boston was if you take him out that can take a significant part of their firepower out of their equation. And then to respond in a big way in a big way in Game 2 that really helped drive the win I think is really a massive positive.”

In some ways Herro’s season mirrored Miami’s. He wasn’t always available and there were struggles when rotation options asked a bit too much against certain opponents, but he was fundamentally the same player that he was before. Up and down the roster, just about everyone was who they were expected to be. After a slow ramp up due to a knee injury, Martin was Martin. Highsmith lived up to rotation expectations. Josh Richardson offered two-way value before a shoulder injury knocked him out for the year. Love was reliable as ever, Duncan an impact, on-the-the-move gravitational shooter, and give or take percentages swinging in one direction or another Butler – having the best three-point shooting season of his career – and Adebayo lived up to previously set standards for impact, huge on-off splits following Butler on offense and Adebayo on defense.

That may be the legacy of this season beyond the development of Jaquez Jr. and Jovic and Adebayo expanding his defensive repertoire. Nothing was particularly wrong with the players. They were who they were supposed to be. It just never came together, with Miami’s 22-20 record in clutch games, following an all-time clutch season at 32-22, the greatest difference between the two years. Had Miami been just as injured against Milwaukee last year and just as healthy against Boston this time around, things might look a bit different.

The same could be said for most franchises that maintain a certain level of success. Make the playoffs often enough, you’re going to have disappointments, seasons that leave you asking What If and What Could Have Been – 2016 comes to mind for Miami – just as teams which frequent the lottery will move down as often as they will move up the draft order. You take your good luck, which plays a part in historically great shooting performances during a Finals run, with the bad, which knocks out important players for the playoffs. It’s all in the game.

Where this group goes from here is anyone’s guess, but up to a precious few to determine. Five years ago marked a beginning for the Adebayo-Butler-Herro core, that trio and Duncan Robinson the constants throughout the current build, and there’s been plenty of success – two Finals runs, three Eastern Conference Finals appearances – along the way. But a season full of unanswered and now unanswerable questions can’t help but leave questions for what’s to come.

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Same Path, Different Results: The 2024 HEAT Season Was Full Of Questions That Couldn't Be Answered

1. Everyone knew the Miami HEAT, already down Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier and now with Jaime Jaquez Jr. also injured, were in a tough spot headed to Boston down 3-1. The Celtics knew that, too, of course, and they clearly weren’t interested in messing around.

This wasn’t a game for adjustments, Miami’s main change being to play Bam Adebayo and Caleb Martin the full 24 in the first half. It was just about an undermanned team struggling to score while the Celtics chugged along at their best scoring rate of the series, hitting 10 of their first 17 threes and not slowing down from there beyond missing a handful of free throws. Derrick White continued his torrid pace from Game 4, 15 points on his ledger before nine minutes were up in the first period, as Boston hunted their mismatched and found their open shots after a long sequence of dribble drives to open the night. By halftime Boston was 9-of-9 at the rim in a series where they’ve averaged 12 makes a night in the restricted area, White had combined with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown for 49 points on 30 shots and they were running a 142.6 Offensive Rating. Down 22 at the break after trailing by as much as 30, if Miami was going to recapture the magic they had in Game 2 they were still looking for it.

Boston back up 30 a few minutes into the third, an 8-0 capped as White hit his fourth three. Adebayo was doing what he could to keep the offense moving, as aggressive as Miami’s situation needed him to be, but there wasn’t nearly enough else as the HEAT couldn’t keep up, their three-point shooting down to 10.3 percent – worst mark of the past five years – in the fourth as Adebayo finally rested. Not much of a playoff feel to the rest of the game, the mountain too steep for the HEAT to climb, as both sides played out the clock, most rotation players pulled. Boston take the game, 118-84, and the series, 4-1, as they advance to play the winner of Cleveland-Orlando.

Some seasons end in the NBA Finals after an incredible run from the No. 8 seed, others end quietly in five First Round games. Maybe this group had more in them had everyone been healthy. Maybe there was magic left in that well. We’ll never know. For now, a long season is over as a long offseason – longer than this group has had in a few years – looms.

2. Nobody will be able to say that Adebayo didn’t leave everything on the floor in this series. Miami practically couldn’t take him off the floor through the first four games, such were his plus-minus numbers, so tonight they decided not to take him of the floor at all as he played all 36 of the first 36 minutes. Adebayo defended Tatum full time – starting possessions on him, at least, as Miami switched more often than they had all regular season – since Game 2, but the Celtics had too many mismatches to chase, while planting Adebayo’s assignments in the corner, for him to cover every inch of the pitch, so to speak. Boston will finish this series as efficient in half court as they were during the regular season largely on the strength of everything they ran away from Adebayo.

Adebayo went out shooting, too, taking a career postseason high 26 shots on his way to 23 points, but Boston never changed their coverage of him for one moment all series long, electing to defend him one-on-one and live with his shot creation. Even with Adebayo shooting well in the paint all series before tonight, Boston’s choices effectively made him a make-or-miss player, all playmaking avenues cut off for one of the best playmaking centers in the league. He’s come a long way in terms of developing his isolation and post play, and his work in that area held off Boston in Miami’s Game 2 win, but if there’s a next step for a player who has taken so many steps each offseason, it will be finding a way to force teams into doubling him. During the regular season that was happening often enough, a real trend down the stretch, but postseason schemes are a different animal. This won’t be a series with much worth remembering outside of one win with historic shooting, but the history books will remember Adebayo doing all he could.

3. It’s understandable if some aren’t receptive to the idea that there was real value in youngsters like Nikola Jovic and Jaime Jaquez Jr. getting on-court experience against one of the best teams in the league, but it matters. It matters that they felt the postseason, felt how the game changes, how the pace and physicality and general rhythm of the game is unlike anything you see in the first 82. It matters that they were key parts of a road postseason win, that they could see what success on that stage looks like. It matters that they felt a postseason scout, how an opponent zeroes in on all your strengths and weaknesses, trying to take away the former while forcing you to the latter. It won’t seem like much now, but when the next season and the next series comes along, and there’s always a next season and next series, this will mean something for them. It’s one thing for everyone to tell you what the playoffs are like. There’s no substitute for first-hand experience.

It doesn’t hurt that both, with starters minutes, handled themselves well. Jaquez Jr. was leading the entire series in drives before his Game 4 injury, and Jovic was shooting the leather off the ball in key stretches while holding up on switches. Now we get to see what they do with this overload of information now readily available.

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Coup’s Takeaways: Boston Leads Wire To Wire As Miami’s Season Ends In First Round

1. Miami made their adjustments in Game 2. Boston countered in Game 3. The question coming into Game 4 was whether further adjustments were coming from either side, or if the best adjustment was going to have to be doing the things you’re already doing and doing them better.

It looked like the HEAT may have made one interesting tweak, opening in their zone coverage on the very first possession of the game, but it appeared to be more of a show than a tell as they returned to their man-to-man the possession after. Miami was also taking more threes through the first six minutes than they had in Game 3 when Boston made more of a concerted effort to pressure the ball and close out to shooters, but the shot profile became much more two-point dominant after that stretch. The good news was that Tyler Herro was managing Boston’s increased ball pressure in rhythm, setting himself up for three early scores on drives and another lob to Bam Adebayo. The bad news was that Derrick White was tossing fireballs around, hitting all variety of three pointers on his way to 22 first-half points on 6-of-9 from three.

After Boston scored 34 in the first quarter, again breaking Miami’s zone with threes, the HEAT settled things down in the second with their switching as Boston was unable to generate consistent makes no matter how many mismatches they hunted. Miami’s offense, however, struggled even more, 3-of-16 from three even including two early makes, their mid-range game coming up mostly empty. Only 19 in the quarter for the visitors, but only 12 for the HEAT, Boston leading by 17 at the break. Kristaps Porzingis leaving the game with a calf injury, doubtful to return, changed the look of the game, but Miami was already working uphill.

With Al Horford starting the second half, a quick 5-0 burst from Boston put the lead at 22. Miami was making them work for it, no doubt, as their switching held up, but consecutive White cuts down the middle for dunks as Jrue Holiday drew two in the post followed by a Jaylen Brown fast-break dunk eventually had it at 23. At 4-of-22 from three, Miami could neither find the makes nor the clean takes. Boston let Adebayo shoot one, though and a three from him and a burst from Patty Mills kept thing manageable at 22 before the end of the period, 81-59 headed into the fourth of a physical, grind-it-out night.

Some jumpers started to fall as the Celtics missed inside, the lead down to 15 with eight to play, but Boston immediately responded with a clean corner three from Holiday and a Tatum dunk down the middle. Back to 15 soon after, another couple jumpers falling, an Adebayo layup in transition forcing a Boston timeout with 5:21 to play, Miami within 13 – close enough to challenge Boston’s late-game offense. Right after that came a dead-ball flagrant foul on Adebayo against Tatum, a White floater after that pushing it back to 17 as time began running short. A few minutes of prevent offense later, Boston takes the game, 102-88, and the series lead to 3-1. Game 5 is Wednesday in Boston.

2. Much to the chagrin of everyone wearing white in the building, the story of the evening was Derrick White, his 38 points on 26 shots a clear standout on a night when just about nobody else had it going on either side – Tatum and Brown combining for only 37 points on 32 shots.

Some of it was spot-up threes, but so much of White’s night came on what would otherwise be All-Star level shots, drives and pull-up jumpers off the dribble including a heartbreaker in the first half, a hand in his face as the shot clock expired. As it has been for most of this series, Boston has had a clear plan and even clearer aggression whenever Miami toggled into zone, and tonight it was White taking an immediate, but not rushed, three as soon as he got a catch in the wing seam of the zone. With White also hounding ballhandlers on the other end, finishing with three blocks on top of it all, he’s the player of the night and then some. While Miami was missing crucial playmakers in Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier, as they have all series, it was Boston’s fourth-leading player in usage rate, at less than 20 percent during the season, who had the Celtics working with a double-digit lead for most of the evening.

3. If there’s any silver lining to a game like this, there’s some solace to take in the fact that Miami’s switching scheme, which they’ve been using ever since Spoelstra’s adjustment in Game 2, has held up relative to the explosive scoring potential Boston has showed all season long. This was a 93-possession game, neither team playing much in transition as has been the case all series, Miami creating the pace that fits their style and playing with ball-pressuring physicality to match what the Celtics have been bringing on the other end. Boston only finished with an Offensive Rating of 108.5, well below their season average, Miami pushing them into the upper paint for most of their off-the-bounce looks with plenty of possessions going up against the clock. Granted, the Celtics missed quite a good looks in the paint after driving mismatches of their choosing, but some credit for that is due Miami’s help defenders for waiting until the right moments to collapses without allowing obvious kickout passing lanes.

If nothing else, Miami’s available players, beyond those like Adebayo (25 points on 22 shots) who have proven their defensive bonafides beyond a shadow of a doubt, have shown themselves capable of the physical style of defense required in postseason play. It doesn’t change the results, and Miami has a most difficult task ahead of them, but that’s not nothing given what they’re missing on offense. This group must be great defensively to give themselves a chance, and for the most part they have been.

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Coup’s Takeaways: HEAT Make Late Push But Derrick White Pushes Boston Into 3-1 Series Lead

1. After all that historic shooting in Game 2, Miami hitting a franchise postseason record 23 triples en route to that double-digit victory, the question on the minds of many was how much of that performance was sustainable.

Boston, it turns out, wasn’t interested in finding out. After leaving most anyone not named Tyler Herro or Duncan Robinson enough airspace to get shots off in the previous contest, helping well off to jam up pick-and-rolls, the Celtics came out with a different gameplan. No more helping one pass away, particularly out of the corners, and the ball pressure was dialed way up. The HEAT started off cold offensively, 1-of-10 from the floor and 0-of-4 from three, but they weren’t comparable shots to those they had made so many of before. Contested was the word of the day.

Fortunately for Miami, Boston wasn’t getting much better through most of the first quarter, only scoring 21 points themselves, the HEAT’s defense holding strong while the offense produced just 12. Yet as soon as the second quarter began, the lead began to stretch, Boston opening the period with back-to-back threes against the zone from Jayson Tatum and Sam Hauser, and with Payton Pritchard pressuring ballhandlers into a couple messy turnovers, Boston held strong up 16-18 points until another late run pushed the lead into the 20’s. A 24-point game at the break after a 42-point quarter for the Celtics, Miami scoring just 39 points overall with an Offensive Rating of 84.8 while Boston was 8-of-21 from three with four players in double figures.

Better offense to open the third helped cut into the lead a little bit, Jaime Jaquez Jr. getting downhill and Herro canning a three, but a handful of easy Boston scores kept it from being much of a run. Miami turned up their own ball pressure, the Celtics mostly handling it well as the lead hung around 20, and for as much as the HEAT were scoring reasonably well they were still being pushed into the mid-range as they were in Game 1, the length of Porzingis a hinderance at the rim. Boston by 26 after three, another pair of deep shots coming against the zone when Adebayo (20 points on 18 shots) got his rest.

Not much to say about the fourth quarter, Boston holding strong as they took a 2-1 series lead with a 104-84 victory.

2. Comparing Miami’s offense from Game 2 to Game 3 is somewhere on the apples-to-oranges spectrum, the shot profile from their previous victory entirely unlike the shots the HEAT were getting tonight. Many came into this game wondering if Boston would adjust, much less how, and the answer was clearly less.

Miami’s shooters didn’t have the same space and Herro didn’t have remotely the same reads, no shooters open on the wings as he came off screens and handoffs. Instead, it was all ball pressure all the time from Boston’s side and while there remained some help on Herro’s actions it was softer, less deliberate and certainly not pre-loaded as it had been before. The difference in Miami’s process was that their three-point shot volume was nearly cut in half, what had previously been a catch-and-shoot three became upper paint attempts off the dribble. Herro, for example, only took two two-pointers in Game 2, but in Game 3 he had taken seven through three quarters of play. The HEAT can certainly shoot better than 12-of-31 in the upper paint, but their rim rate remained low with just eight attempts. Credit Boston for being willing to alter their gameplan just as the HEAT did before Game 2. Now we see how Miami adjusts.

3. The HEAT’s big defensive adjustment going into Game 2 was to put Adebayo on Tatum and switch everything, which led to Boston’s halfcourt offense slowing down as they settled for chasing one-on-one matchups. Still, their halfcourt offensive rating in that game was a flat 100, still above average.

Tonight, that number was 113 before starters were pulled with a few minutes to go. It wasn’t because Boston caught fire from three, shooting just 29.7 percent on 37 shots – though their makes against the zone were particularly harmful, as they came in bunches and led to short runs both times Adebayo sat – but until the late game when Tatum and Jaylen Brown (44 combined points on 36 shots) started draining the clock a little, there was more verve to the way Boston was moving in the halfcourt, a calm but intentional approach as they committed just five turnovers. No one player dominated the ball, White and Porzingis getting early touches as their efficiency (34 points on 23 shots) proved the difference after Boston’s role players came up mostly empty in Game 2. Boston ended the night with a 122.6 Offensive Rating despite fairly average shooting across the board. With their switching approach the HEAT will likely live with, unless they adjust, some one-on-one scores, but there are some possessions – transition scores, backdoor cuts in the halfcourt, White putting back a missed free-throw – that will surely be a point of emphasis in the coming days.

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Coup’s Takeaways: Celtics Adjust Their Defense, Take 2-1 Series Lead

The Miami HEAT tied their First Round series with Boston, 1-1, Wednesday night, holding Boston to 40 points in the second half as they shot a franchise playoff best 23-of-43 from behind the arc. Here are the main reasons for how they did it.

First, the shooting. Before we get to the adjustments Miami made we have to talk about the ones Boston didn’t. Nothing about this is normal, folks. Miami has as many playoff games (5) with 50 percent shooting from three in the past two seasons as two franchises, Houston and Utah, have in both regular seasons combined. The HEAT have four playoff games where they’ve made at least half their threes against Boston alone the past two seasons, and no other team has done it more than once against anyone in that stretch. Miami just became the fifth team, ever, to make 23 threes in a postseason game. This is wild, mythmaking, stranger-than-fiction on-court material

But as with anything there is a reason it happens, and there’s a reason it happens to Boston. You can dissect and analyze individual closeouts all you want, the Celtics are giving Miami’s role players those shots.

Last year, after having success with it in the previous Conference Finals, the Celtics went back to their strategic well and opted to sag off Caleb Martin to allow Robert Williams III roaming freedom on the backline of the defense. In the same spot a year later, Martin knew what scheme was coming his way.

“I just knew from the jump, I automatically triggered my brain to last year and the playoffs and knew exactly how they were going to guard me,” Martin said last May. “So I've been preparing myself the minute we beat the Knicks and we were preparing for Boston. I just automatically started trying to re-circuit my brain to the looks I would get and how guys are going to help off of me and preparing to be ready and confident and assertive.”

Martin proceeded to torch the coverage, shooting 49 percent from three across seven games, including 6-of-14 as Miami took the opening two matchups in Boston.

“One thing Caleb told me was, ‘This is not last year,’” Bam Adebayo said after Game 2 that year. “That really resonated with me because they did the same thing to him last year. I feel like he felt like it was disrespectful.”

As Boston cycled out personnel, bringing in Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis, it was worth wondering whether they would adjust their treatment of Martin. During the regular season, nothing much changed. Boston had Porzingis and Horford roaming off Martin. Coming into this series, you could see the same thing coming once again. Miami couldn’t make the Celtics pay in Game 1, shooting 32 percent from three, but the looks were there – Boston was clearly willing to live with giving up some catches in space in order to bring in a third defender on Tyler Herro’s pick-and-rolls, as we discussed after Game 1.

“We’re all smart basketball players,” Martin said after Game 2. “We’re going to take the ones that are there. That’s part of their gameplan, too, they’re going to leave certain guys open. You play into the gameplan if you hesitate to shoot.”

It wasn’t just Martin, either. Boston was treating just about everyone who wasn’t Herro or Duncan Robinson the same. With the paint largely inaccessible, the perimeter looks were going to be there. Herro just had to see them, and guys had to make shots. Instead, they rode historic on that fury road.

“We knew a couple of us were going to get some open shots,” Haywood Highsmith said. “They was leaving us open and stuff, so we just let it fly.”

Just as in Game 1, the help came early on Herro as he cleared Adebayo’s handoffs and screens, Jaylen Brown even helping off the strong side corner to jam Herro up.

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Celtics Game 2: Helping To Herro

“Just starting off, the guys that we wanted to shoot,” Jrue Holiday said. “Not that we let them, but it wasn’t like a get out to them and make them put it on the ground, it was kind of like protect the basket and get a good closeouts. They started knocking them in.”

The effect became even more pronounced as the night wore on. Watch the extreme degree to which Holiday, Porzingis and Derrick White help off Martin, Haywood Highsmith and Delon Wright in the fourth quarter.

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Celtics Game 2: Shooters Left Open

“That’s how they’re scheming us so far,” Spoelstra said. “Packing the paint and putting an extra defender in front of Tyler or Jaime or whoever was attacking the paint. Those are the available shots you have to trust whether it’s a make or a miss.”

Of Herro’s career-high 14 assists, around nine of them, depending on your definition, were of this variety, making the help reads –third defenders coming his way, often one pass away – and finding his shooters.

Miami’s Shot Quality from three in Game 2 was an expected effective field-goal percentage of 53.4, which would have been Top 5 among all teams in the regular season. But if you take Robinson and Herro out of the equation, the two shooters who consistently saw attention at the arc, then everyone else had a Shot Quality of 55.7. Overall, Miami shot 61.5 percent on 26 three-point attempts Second Spectrum logged as uncontested or lightly contested. In Game 1 that number was 37.5 percent on 24 attempts. Both attempt totals are in the Top 6 for Miami this season, and the HEAT shot 40.6 percent on those shots, lightly contested or uncontested threes, all year, No. 4 in the league.

“Guys that we want shooting the ball was hitting them, we seemingly couldn’t get them to miss,” Jaylen Brown said.

There’s the math aspect to this, of course. Erik Spoelstra noted between games that they needed to be more competitive in that area. Allowing an offense like Boston’s to take so many more threes than you is a tough hill to sled. But, again, these are also the shots being presented. Miami’s shooters were more willing to shoot, but they were also shots they were being given.

“I just did not want to get annihilated in that department the way we did before,” Spoelstra said of the three-point disparity from Game 1.

Whether Boston adjusts remains to be seen given that they’ve applied a similar philosophy across multiple years against Miami. Counting on average-ish shooters to miss some shots isn’t bad science, so to speak, but science doesn’t always account for the magic that can happen in individual games. At some point the things that could theoretically happen are actually happening. And yet Boston also won three straight games after they went down 3-0 last year, with minimal adjustments. If changes are made, less help coming Herro’s way could open up the paint, and with just five makes in the restricted area in Game 2 Miami could probably use a little bit in the paint. Even without many paint points, however, Miami scored 112.8 points per 100 plays in the halfcourt, their fifth highest mark of the season.

On a related note, for years Boston has been the one team that appeared to have a bit more sway than others over opponent three-point percentages, consistently ranking Top 10 in an area that has in many ways been governed, to a degree, by luck and variance. Much of that was due to these same ideas, a willingness to leave certain shooters over others, but a team’s control over that could also be drawn into question. Still, whatever was real or myth, there’s a certain irony in the team that had found answers for one of the more unsolvable aspects of the game being on the wrong side of those same percentages in the games that matter most.

“There are certain guys on the floor that you would rather shoot than others, that’s any NBA game you play,” Tatum said. “But guys are in the NBA for a reason. Everybody is capable.”

Maybe the answer to all of this is Miami’s shooters get more comfortable when they know what shots are coming their way. Maybe this will never happen again. We can’t hand wave this type of performance anymore, though. Magic or not, it’s happening for very practical reasons and the HEAT have spent two years now doing everything possible to take advantage. It might be rare, special, incredibly unique, memorable and even funny, but it’s not a miracle if you’re the one that can make it happen.

The story of Miami’s defense this season, especially as it relates to Adebayo, is that as their personnel has changed Erik Spoelstra went away from his switch-heavy scheme and dedicated his team to drop coverage as their base pick-and-roll look. You can read about that story here, so we won’t dwell on it too much. One thing was worth remembering about those changes, though. For as much as Miami was diversifying their portfolio to better survive – they turned in yet another Top 5 defense despite 35 different starting lineups, largely due to Adebayo’s multi-coverage capabilities – they never buried their ol’ reliable.

“That’s probably our most comfortable scheme, but we always got that,” Martin said about switching pick-and-rolls earlier this year.

“For us, we think switching is normal,” Adebayo said.

After cycling through just about every coverage in their arsenal in Game 1, giving up 1.27 points per possession across 54 screens while their zone was lightly toasted by three point shooting, Spoelstra returned to the coverage his group once used more than any other team.

In Game 2 Miami switched 41 pick-and-rolls, allowing 0.72 points per possession. The occasion marked the most switches Miami had made in any game all season.

There was a clever wrinkle to the scheme. Rather than putting Adebayo on Porzingis as was the matchup for most of Game 1, Spoelstra went to the same well he did in Miami’s second Play-In Game against Chicago, asking Adebayo to go from defending DeMar DeRozan at tipoff one week to Jayson Tatum the next. Rather than aiming to switch Adebayo on to Tatum, Adebayo started possessions in position to switch off him - Adebayo wasn't logged as the closest defender on any of Tatum's 20 attempts - Nikola Jovic assigned to Porzingis ready to switch should Boston want to run one of their more common actions.

Why is that a good thing? Wouldn’t you want Adebayo on Tatum? Part of what made Boston’s Game 1 offense so dangerous is that Tatum did much of his work early, finding cross matches in transition or running to specific corners against the zone to post up a desirable matchup. That wasn’t going to happen with Adebayo on Tatum, who now had to come get the ball and spend time running a pick-and-roll to find a matchup, time that he couldn’t then use to get off the ball and go get position at the elbow or on the block. Miami would switch a different matchup onto Tatum, sure, but Tatum would then be left attacking from the top of the arc or the wings, much more manageable for a gap-shrinking HEAT scheme that prefers you playing breakthrough-and-conquer with multiple sets of eyes, arms and feet pre-loaded in your path.

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Celtics Game 2: Bam On Tatum Switch

Of course the weakness of the switching scheme, and part of why Miami went away from it in the first place over the past year, is that Adebayo can’t literally be everywhere no matter how brilliant his defense is. Boston has plenty of ballhandlers, plenty of pick-and-roll combinations with which to find matchups they want. They found those matchups just fine, they just couldn’t capitalize on them, 32 Celtics isolations – four off their season high – producing just 0.83 points per, 11 Boston post-ups producing 0.80 points per as Herro held up while Porzingis missed shots over the top.

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Celtics Game 2: Herro On Porzingis

The other tweak was that Miami brought less deliberate help in general. They still played the gaps as they should, but there were no early doubles coming as they did in Game 1, the defense bending but not tilting, rotating but not in rotation. That’s how you hold the Celtics, perhaps the most prolific shooting team of all time, to just 32 attempts from deep, just their fifth game all season with fewer than 33 tries.

“They switched and they didn’t double as much,” Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla said.

You can’t switch without having some faith in your defenders. In Game 2, Miami went back to their old ways, in a good way, Adebayo was his dynamic self, and Spoelstra trusted everyone else to guard their yard as Boston’s offense stagnated. It worked, and now we see how Boston reacts.

After Game 1 it was clear that Boston had every intention not to bring help on Bam Adebayo’s isolations and post-ups, and we noted that while it can be a bit of a trap to take all that single coverage and make it too much of your overall offense – something you could argue is exactly what happened to the Celtics tonight – there is a benefit to knowing Adebayo will have self-creation opportunities whenever you need them.

And you never need them more than in the fourth quarter, when the game is slow and percentages matter more than 48-minute efficiency.

Sure enough, in Game 2, Adebayo was more of a screener than a scorer – his 36 screens tied for sixth-most this season – sprinkling in post-ups but only using one isolation in the first quarter. But in the fourth, there was that option, Adebayo attacking Al Horford with no help coming as Boston attempted to stage a comeback.

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Celtics Game 2: Bam 4th Q Island

“He was great when we needed to get it settled and went right to his spots and was able to get some relief points for us,” Spoelstra said.

And rather than going back to that same look over and over, Miami got out of it just as quickly, the damage done as Adebayo went back to screening for Herro and doing his damage on the pocket pass. Adebayo finished only 2-of-2 at the rim, one of those a lob from Herro, but 7-of-10 in the upper paint and mid-range combined. Through two games, Adebayo has produced 1.42 points-per across 12 post-ups.

“Any time the game gets crazy and they go on a run, we find the ball in Bam’s hands,” Herro said. “He’s just our settle guy. We know he’s going to make the right play or find a hole in the defense to find a shot for himself.”

Any time the game gets crazy and they go on a run, we find the ball in Bam’s hands. He’s just our settle guy. We know he’s going to make the right play or find a hole in the defense to find a shot for himself.

Adebayo (probably) won’t keep shooting this well on tough turnarounds and fadeaways, but the value is in knowing that until Boston adjusts their coverage those shots are always there when Miami needs them most.

-The HEAT only played three possessions of zone, with Love playing just six total minutes as Jovic played the backup five in the second half.

-Boston wound up scoring 100 points per 100 halfcourt plays, per cleaningtheglass.com, a good number for most teams but well below their own rate of 106.5 during the regular season.

-Bringing it back to math again, Miami and Boston each made 37 field goals, with Boston attempting five more. But the HEAT made 11 more threes, 11 extra points over the two pointers the Celtics made, and won by 10.

-Through two games now, Miami has produced 1.21 points per pick-and-roll and 1.19 points per handoff. Both numbers would have led the league by a significant margin.

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Practical Magic: The Reality Behind Miami’s Historic Shooting In Game 2, A Defensive Return To Old Reliable And Bam Adebayo Left Alone Again

1. It’s always been said in at least a little jest that the best adjustment you can make in a playoff series is to come out and make half your threes, but after the HEAT literally did just that in three games during the Eastern Conference Finals last season, it’s not so much of a joke anymore.

After attempting just 14 threes in the first half of Game 1 while Boston launched 30, Miami has since been trying to correct that math problem and came out firing in Game 2, 14 of their first 18 shots coming from the arc, with eight makes, as they took a one-point lead after the first quarter. Adjustments also came on defense, Bam Adebayo starting out on Jayson Tatum and less help coming on Boston’s one-on-one attacks, but it was the shooting more than anything else that created any separation.

Things started to tilt Boston’s direction early in the second, Miami’s zone still struggling with five deadly shooters on the floor at all times, and you could feel things starting to slip a bit. Those feelings never lasted for more than a few moments, the HEAT always with a three in response – seven combined from Tyler Herro and Caleb Martin in the first half – to manage momentum. The HEAT’s increasing reticence to bring early defensive help was pushing down Boston’s catch-and-shoot looks, but the paint became more vulnerable as a result, Tatum and Jaylen Brown barreling down the lanes as the Celtics outscored Miami 28-10 in the paint. It remained Miami’s advantage, even with some turnovers going the other direction, but three straight Brown (33 points on 23 shots) threes to end the half stole the lead right back. Boston by three at the break despite Miami setting a new season high for threes in any half with 13.

More threes coming in the third, many of them quite open with Adebayo creating an open one for Herro in the corner with a tough screen, Haywood Highsmith on the catch at the top of the arc, a run-capping pick-six putting Miami up 10 with 4:10 remaining in the third. This time it was Jovic getting the backup five minutes, Boston’s offense stuck in the mud right until it wasn’t with Tatum getting going. Still just an 18-point quarter for Boston, Miami up to 19 threes for just the fourth time this season as they held on to a six-point advantage going into the fourth.

Boston kept slow rolling it on offense, missing good looks but initiating late in the clock, a pair of misses at the line from Tatum (28 points on 20 shots) a good illustration of how things were going for them. More threes for Miami, Highsmith and Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Delon Wright all off the catch, puts the HEAT up nine with five minutes to play. Down to six with 3:15 to play, Derrick White keeping Boston alive with a tough three over Adebayo, Herro in control with the ball in hands the whole way. Miami never wavered, Martin (21 points on 12 shots) sticking the shot of the night from the left wing for his fifth three, and this one didn’t even qualify for clutch designation. Miami takes it, 111-101, and ties the series with the next two in Miami.

2. We’ll get to the shooting in a moment, because it was unbelievably important, but first a note about the defense. Through the first two quarter Boston was just fine, their shooting coming and going but their interior attack pacing them, 17 rim attempts to Miami’s two, as they overtook the HEAT’s perimeter approach for that three-point lead at the break.

Slowly, in the second half, things started to shift. Those driving layups becoming short floaters and fallaway jumpers, shots that rimmed in rimmed out, early attacks bogged down as the Celtics held the ball, chasing matchups against the clock. With Adebayo on Tatum or Brown requiring time-killing actions to shake Adebayo off and generate a matchup, and Porzingis unable to post-up smaller players, Miami’s adjustment not to help as quickly and definitively on those one-on-one attacks played a big part. Even as Tatum and Brown scored, Boston wasn’t earning those defense-tilting opportunities that turn into so many threes, and as the game slowed down it worked more and more in Miami’s favor. In the end, for all the shots Miami made they only scored 53 points in the second half on their own. It was holding Boston to 40 in those final two periods, and just 32 attempts from three, that secured this one. Though of course all those run-stopping Miami makes helped, too, with Boston forced into the halfcourt.

3. Over the past two seasons, Miami now has four postseason games against Boston with at least 50 percent shooting from three. No other team has more than one such game, against anyone. That is, frankly, unbelievable. It was unbelievable when Miami rode that shooting to the NBA Finals last season, and it was unbelievable tonight, with such balanced shooting up and down the roster. And that’s what makes it such a cool sports story. This stuff isn’t supposed to happen, yet here is Miami, making it happen.

It'll be worth a deeper dive into Miami’s franchise postseason record 23-of-43 from the arc, five players hitting at least three including the youngsters Jaquez Jr. and Nikola Jovic along with defensive stalwarts Highsmith and Martin, but for now there are a few points worth ruminating on. First, Adebayo (21 points on 13 shots) deserves a ton of credit for how his screens created good looks, especially for Herro (24 points on 7-of-13 shooting, 6-of-11 from deep), as does Herro who took the extra pressure Boston was throwing at him and finding the open spots in the defense when his pullup jumper wasn’t available. With 14 assists, there’s a case that this was the best playmaking game of Herro’s career.

There’s also a bit of schematic choice at play, just as there was last season. Last year Boston sagged off players like Martin and Martin punished them with an incredible series. Tonight, Boston wasn’t closing out hard on most shooters who weren’t Herro or Duncan Robinson (with a couple tough makes), their help off those shooters jamming up the paint for potential drives – Miami was 5-of-8 in the restricted area – but creating comfortable space to take advantage of. Last year Boston didn’t adjust their gambit much as they came back to force Game 7 only to get burned again by Martin in that same game. We’ll see how and whether they adjust to this performance, and what that might open up for Miami moving forward. On top of it all, Boston still chose to single cover Adebayo’s isolations, and Adebayo answered with four huge scores in the fourth, all in the upper paint and mid-range, as he capitalized.

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Coup's Takeaways: Herro, Adebayo And Historic Shooting Take Game 2 In Boston

The Boston Celtics lead the series, 1-0, with Game 2 coming up Wednesday at 7 pm before things shift to Miami for Game 3 Saturday at 6pm.

The Boston Celtics took Game 1 of this First Round series in decisive fashion, leading wire-to-wire and by more than 30 for a stretch. But as is so often the case with series openers, the final score is far less instructive than the tape. There’s no doubt Miami is fighting an uphill battle in this series, especially without Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier and with Duncan Robinson (15 minutes) limited, but for all of Boston’s offensive firepower it’s how they’re choosing to defend Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro that may be the most interesting early notes.

The story of the past couple months for Miami has been more and more teams following the examples set by teams like Dallas and New York and their defensive schemes, either sending doubles at Adebayo and Jimmy Butler or loading up early help on their post-ups and isolations across the lane. Some of what made those tactical decisions was the sometimes awkward spacing with Adebayo and Butler on the court together, but the Celtics have rarely schemed the HEAT in such a fashion, opting for years to trust their individual defenders while staying home everywhere else as much as possible.

As expected, they’re treating Adebayo much as they always have. Boston will bring a third player into the lane to ensure he doesn’t get a free roll to the rim, but with both Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford in drop coverage the Celtics appear willing to concede the occasional pocket pass at the elbows or on the baseline out of an empty-corner set. Most crucially, on Adebayo’s one-on-one forays, either isolations or post-ups which often end up being the same things logged differently in various databases, there is no help coming. Adebayo attacking Horford looks the same as it did two years ago, and the same is true of the Porzingis matchup.

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Celtics Game 1: Bam Single Coverage

“I came into the game being aggressive,” Adebayo said. “That’s it. If you’re not going to double me, I’m going to try and go score.”

It’s important to note that these are not bad matchups for Adebayo. His repertoire – every pivot and fake and spin and reverse you can imagine – has evolved to the point where he can create a look against most anyone. He’s scored on both defenders before, and he can do it at volume – he produced a respectable 10 points on 10 combined isolation and post-up possessions in Game 1, per Second Spectrum’s tracking data. They are also inherently static possessions, the rest of the Boston’s defense locked in on their men, and Adebayo’s comfort zone is more in the upper paint than in consistently getting right to the rim against defenders with size playing a foot or two back.

Why this might be so crucial in this series is because of how much more Miami requires shot creation from Adebayo without other on-ball options in Butler and Rozier. In the past, with Butler soaking up postseason-level usage, Adebayo could shoulder the burden for bursts, going at Horford for four straight minutes in a third quarter on the road, a change-of-pace to keep the offensive train on the tracks. But with injuries being what they are and Miami’s creation options depleted as a result, more is required. Using Sunday’s numbers as an example, a point-per-possession while you’re trying to hold a lead late in a game is different than a point-per-possession when you’re down double digits and the offense has already been pushed off the arc and away from the rim.

“I have a lot of thoughts on that end,” Erik Spoelstra said. “You have to give them credit for taking us out of some things. I think they’re willing to live with some of those one-on-ones to be able to keep bodies on some of our other guys.”

The question, then, is how efficient Adebayo will have to be with his one-on-one work to force an adjustment from Boston, or if that limit even exists. Boston didn’t bring a ton of doubles this season, but they weren’t bottom of the league. If Adebayo scores on five straight isolations at some point in this series, will Boston change its coverage, even if only temporarily? Any avenue toward tilting the defense, any option for getting two defenders on the ball, is one worth exploring, but it’s also difficult to spend long stretches searching for those answers when you need immediate production as you try and keep up with a dynamic offense.

One positive in all of this is that if Miami can force clutch minutes in this series, Boston’s predilection for single coverage means Adebayo should have straightforward shot creation opportunities available to him in moments when any good, comfortable shot has greater value – when single-shot percentages can carry more weight than big picture efficiency. If Adebayo has the opportunity to create and take two ~45 percent shots to take a lead in the final minute of a playoff game against a 64-win team, that’s something everyone would probably be happy with. Whether or not Boston would change their first, second and third quarter philosophies in those situations remains to be seen.

On the other side of the high-usage coin is Herro, who has the unenviable task of being the lead ballhandler going up against a team replete with strong individual defenders. As Herro does not lean toward one-on-one play as heavily as his All-Star teammates – he uses about a quarter as many isolations as Butler, half as many as Adebayo – Boston’s core scheme is more about the pick-and-roll game.

Here's the stat to know. In Game 1 Herro ran 20 pick-and-rolls and 10 handoffs. Of those 30 actions, he only shot the ball, turned the ball over a total of nine times, about a 30 percent usage rate, down from a 40 percent usage rate on his own actions during the regular season. Some of that is Herro having more playmaking responsibility with who is currently available, some of that dealing with two guards, in Jrue Holiday and Derrick White, who double as two of the best screen navigators in the league. When your defender can consistently skinny up and around picks and is always on your tail, it’s tough to find comfortable space.

But Herro has seen defenders like these before, and he’s certainly seen drop coverage like this before. No matter how well Holiday and White are fighting through screens, Adebayo is a good enough screener to create space for Herro to get into the space created by the coverage. If that’s all it was, Herro would be able to get to the same shots he was getting in last week’s Play In games against Philadelphia and Chicago.

Boston, however, isn’t defending Herro’s pick-and-rolls two-on-two as a team like Milwaukee would have done in the past. While they’re staying home on Adebayo’s isolations and post-ups, there’s a clear third defender pinching in at the elbow, not always to get in front of the ball but to be enough of a nuisance to force Herro to pick it up, turning what could have been a shorter floater, or even a layup, into a tight window for a long jumper.

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Celtics Game 1: Herro Third Man

It’s a similar idea to how Miami defends so many guards, with their coverage of Trae Young in the playoffs a couple seasons ago a well-known example. Boston’s intention, then, appears to be to make Herro more of a playmaker, Adebayo more of a scorer.

“[They were] just applying pressure and making things difficult,” Herro said. “Not allowing me to get comfortable really from the beginning.”

Whether or not Spoelstra and his staff are happy to live with what Boston is happy to give up remains to be seen. Miami had less than two days between their win-or-go-home game against Chicago Friday and an afternoon game Sunday in Boston, so with a couple days off before Wednesday’s matchup they’ll have the opportunity to reassess. For now it’s only important to note how Adebayo and Herro are being defended within the context of who is available, because whether or not those coverages change could define both this series and the developmental tracks for both players moving forward.

We had a pretty good idea going into this one that Boston was going to be a tough team to zone. They almost always have five good-to-great shooters on the floor, for one, but they also don’t panic against the coverage, avoiding most of the pratfalls which plague other teams. There’s a reason Miami only used their change-of-pace scheme for 15 possessions across three games with Boston.

But zone has been Miami’s primary look when Adebayo rests, their way of keeping the ball out of the paint while they capitalize on the five-out spacing provided by Kevin Love on the other. They don’t necessarily need it, but it’s not a luxury, either. The zone, and the clock-killing full-court pressure that comes with it, is part of their identity. Yet in Game 1 Miami used just nine possessions of zone, as logged by Synergy Sports, and Boston produced 1.55 points-per against it.

Some of what was just Porzingis being a tough player to zone, his ability to shoot in the middle of the floor drawing attention – and creating space for others – where Miami might otherwise be happy to leave a less efficient center to work.

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Celtics Game 1: Porzingis Zone Touch

At other times Boston opted to attack out of the wings and corners, Jayson Tatum posting up the low man of the zone and forcing two to the ball as Sam Hauser reaped the benefits on the weakside.

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Celtics Game 1: Tatum Zone Doubles

“Last year it was a lot easier because they didn’t have Porzingis and I think our zone made a lot of problems for them,” Nikola Jovic said. “It can make a lot of problems this year too but with Porzingis in the lineup, who can stretch the floor and shoot it over anyone, it’s just really hard to guard him. Sam Hauser shot all those threes off great ball movement they had.”

But what was most interesting about Boston’s zone approach, and this is a benefit to having so many reliable ballhandlers in the rotation, is that they treated Miami’s full-court press as part of that zone rather than an initial level to beat. Most teams focus on the press break to ensure they get the ball across the halfcourt line before eight seconds elapse, and then they go into their zone offense. The Celtics, meanwhile, were getting into their zone offense as they broke the press, putting players into optimal positions before the zone could congeal into its intended shape.

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Celtics Game 1: Boston Early Zone Offense

As with Boston’s three-point heavy approach they’re always susceptible to a cold spell, but as much as Miami’s zone allows threes it’s not intended to allow open, ball-movement-derived three. The HEAT want to induce against-the-clock stagnation, and if Boston’s strategy make the secondary scheme unviable that’s a significant blow to Miami’s arsenal. Keep an eye on how much zone the HEAT use in Game 2, as well as the minutes distribution between Love and Jovic – Miami went to some small-ball looks – at the backup center spot.

Miami was at a math disadvantage in the first half, getting outscored by 27 points at the three-point line not just because they had only made three but they had also attempted just 14 from the arc while Boston was 12-of-30. That’s not going to be a winning formula, especially when you aren’t compensating with rim attempts (seven in the first half) or free-throws (six for both the half and the game). With Boston also winning the turnover column (only three) and collecting a handful of offensive boards to give them seven more field-goal attempts, that’s trouble.

The second half was much more manageable, Miami taking 23 threes to Boston’s 19, attempting six more shots overall. Boston still attempted 12 more threes overall, Miami at 43 percent frequency from the arc and Boston at 53 percent, but the HEAT earning more and more catch-and-shoot looks as the game wore on is a good sign. Granted some of those came from Delon Wright with Boston giving him space to shoot – there’s no easy way to look this up, but Wright has to be one of the first 30+ year olds to match his previous career high in threes, five, in a single postseason quarter as he did in the fourth – but with Porzingis and Horford sometimes assigned to Wright, Caleb Martin or Jaime Jaquez Jr. in order to help off into the paint, Miami is going to need some threes from low-to-medium volume shooters.

“That was pretty crazy,” Wright said. “I don’t think I’ve ever hit that many in a row. I just have to take the open shots they give me.”

Still, you might not see Miami take 14 or fewer threes in a half very often going forward. Whether or not they’ll take more threes, or if they should even be trying to take more, than Boston is an entirely different question. The HEAT’s ability to scale up their three-point volume has been a topic since preseason, and though they were rarely healthy enough – Rozier would certainly help in this category – to get a real sense of what their true shot profile should look like, the fact is that Boston averaged 42 attempts per game and Miami only attempted 40 threes nine times all season.

There’s a real danger in trying to force shots you aren’t comfortable with. As much as Miami will want to keep their volume at a decent pace, pushing too hard in a direction that isn’t natural for the personnel on hand can also take you out of your game. Boston has so many shooters, and can tilt the defense by going matchup hunting consistently enough, that they are going to get their looks, with Miami’s defense having a say in how contested those looks are. Trying to beat a historically great offense at their own math game by trying to outdo their idealized shot profile sounds like trying to sprint through quicksand. The better path is to play your own game, and Miami’s second half, with a 116.7 Offensive Rating, was procedurally closer to it.

-Keep an eye on how much help Jaime Jaquez Jr. is drawing in Game 2. He scored 16 points on 8-of-16 shooting against mostly single coverage, with Boston failing to stop the ball on one coast-to-coast drive and losing him on another rim cut, but there were hints of help coming his way in the second half that we might see more of going forward. Granted some of that may be Holiday using the defensive freedom granted to him, but Jaquez Jr. had a usage rate of 25 percent and has often been used as a secondary creator since Butler’s knee injury. When you have the ball in your hands that much, defenses start thinking about adjustments.

-Both teams turned in below-average drives, only 34 for a Miami team that averaged 50.8 per 100 possessions, 30 for a Boston team that averaged 40 per 100. Not super surprising, given the quality and styles of defenses, and the fact that this was a very slow-paced game at just 88 possessions apiece.

-In addition to Jovic at center, we also saw some Adebayo-Love minutes in the fourth quarter when Miami was trying to cut into the lead. That pairing was +3 in 4.5 minutes.

-Boston did not run much this season, playing in transition only 14 percent of the time, but that frequency dropped to 5.7 percent in Game 1. Miami’s press and their own low turnover rate likely influenced that, but the cost – transition defense and offensive glass crash rate are always linked – may have been just five offensive boards to call their own.

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Coverage Consideration For Tyler Herro And Bam Adebayo, Boston's Heads Up Zone Approach And The Pythagorean Problem

1. An inauspicious start for Miami, Boston jumping out to a 9-0 and eventually a 17-2 lead getting a little bit of everything inside and out. But Boston’s greatest strength, their historic shooting, can also leave them vulnerable for extended stretches, so while the Celtics were taking nearly 70 percent of their shots from the arc, a cold stretch gave Miami a little life, Bam Adebayo working the mid-range against Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford as his team tried to work transition opportunities out of long rebounds. Only a five-point game after one quarter, Miami at a disadvantage when it comes to shot profile, getting pushed into more mid-range shots than usual.

There’s a reason Miami only used 15 possessions of zone in three games against the Celtics this year. Kevin Love made the most of his stretch, scoring seven points on 3-of-3 shooting, but with five shooters on the floor the Celtics were producing open looks against the zone, Sam Hauser setting up on the weakside as he drained four catch-and-shoot looks to push Boston up double digits again. No fear from either Nikola Jovic or Jaime Jaquez Jr. – still working his shoulders into chests and spinning his way towards the rim – and Adebayo continued to do his job as Boston elected to single cover his isolations, but those threes kept Miami at a math disadvantage, with Jayson Tatum’s mid-range work keeping things moving along. Down 15 at the break, Boston with a 130 Offensive Rating, was a workable score, especially with the HEAT just 3-of-14 from deep, but with Boston pulling in some offensive boards to win the possession battle, keeping turnovers down, Miami was looking for something more than make-or-miss to keep them attached.

Jaquez Jr. kept coming in the third, weaving his way through the entire Boston defense for a coast-to-coast layup, but Boston’s offense wasn’t slowed as they hovered right around their season averages from deep, open look after open look. You could find bright spots on Miami’s part, but even as they were successful in slowing the game down a bit they were having trouble keeping up on the offensive end. Before the end of the third, a Derrick White three had the Celtics up 32, Miami’s Offensive Rating sitting below 90 after just two field goals in the last eight minutes of the period.

Three straight threes from Delon Wright to open the fourth as they played it out, Miami earning easy cuts and open looks to cut the lead. By the time Wright hit his fifth three, tying his career high, the lead was down to 15 with four minutes to go. Soon after an Adebayo three made it 14 to make it interesting, but time ran out soon after, Boston taking Game 1, 114-94.

2. Boston shot 44 percent from three and are now 37-1 this season when topping 40 percent. Such is their offense. What Miami is going to want to take a look at on tape – we don’t have Shot Quality data yet as of this writing – is what kind of threes they were giving up. Tatum (23 points on 18 shots, 10 assists) only shot 1-of-8, after all, so this wasn’t one of those instances where he’s unconscious going one-on-one, getting to his stepback. Aside from a Porzingis step-back in the second half, most of Boston’s deep looks were of the catch-and-shoot variety, especially true whenever Miami was in zone. Part of the HEAT’s upset in last season’s Eastern Conference Finals was getting the Celtics to turn in a number of cold shooting nights, and as much variance exists in those deep shots the defense absolutely has a way to influence the make-or-miss. The good news was that after being at a major math disadvantage in the first half, trading mid-range looks for Boston’s threes, Miami’s deep volume started climbing in the second half to get them to a 43 percent frequency. You aren’t always going to get Delon Wright matching his career high, five threes, in a single quarter like he did in the fourth, but the HEAT’s profile looked a bit more to their standards, particularly without Jimmy Butler, later on.

To that note, however, the crux of this matchup might be in how Boston is choosing to defend Adebayo right now – which so far is the same as they always have. Adebayo played well, scoring 24 points on 17 attempts including 9-of-15 shooting on non-rim two pointers, but many of those were static possessions, Adebayo attacking one-on-one and the Celtics choosing to defend one-on-one. In other words, where many teams have opted to send a variety of help coverages at Adebayo and Butler in previous months, the Celtics take the opposite tactic, living with what Adebayo can create for himself rather than tilt their own defensive shape and risk getting into rotations. With Miami’s lack of available shot creation at the moment, they’ll need more of this from Adebayo, but it will be interesting to follow whether or not Boston ever adjusts if he sustains this efficiency.

3. Jaime Jaquez Jr. scoring 16 points on 15 shots wouldn’t be something to write home about during the regular season, but on the road in your first playoff game against a No. 1 seed that’s about as encouraging a performance as you can get. Yes, there were some possessions where Boston simply didn’t pick up the ball as Jaquez Jr. got right to the cup, or where the defense lost him on a cut, but there were also possessions where Jaquez Jr. initiated contact, kept his dribble alive and got himself to the rim or, at the very least, into the paint.

Just as we’ll be watching how Boston defends Adebayo, whether they make any adjustments on Jaquez Jr. – do they bring more help on his drives rather than play him one-on-one, do they adjust how they navigate screens against his pick-and-rolls – or not is important not just for this series for but the rookie’s big picture development. Just as Adebayo had to evolve his game after teams like Milwaukee gave him a very specific defensive look years ago, defensive choices against Jaquez Jr. during this and any other series will help define what he needs to become moving forward. A great start to his postseason career on the offensive side of things. Now we see how how the scouting report changes.