Month One All-Stars

The question is not whether Giannis deserves to be an All-Star. The question is whether he deserves to start as an All-Star.

This is where we are one month into the season. To emphasize, we are just one month into the season, but Giannis has been playing at a star level since last February (after the last All-Star Game). So the Bucks are on a path to have their first All-Star since Michael Redd in 2004. To put that in perspective, the team’s current head coach made five All-Star appearances as a player since the last Bucks player made it.

Reminder on the rules.

Twelve roster spots for each conference. The fans vote in the starters – three frontcourt players and two guards. (You are a fan. Vote for Giannis, starting in December. Go to games and vote. Vote online. Vote as many times as you think are you allowed to vote, and then vote more. Commit meaningful voter fraud. Condemn people you know until they vote for Giannis.) Coaches then pick seven reserves – three frontcourt players, two guards and two wild cards.

The following is not a prediction. It is strictly based on performance to date in the East.

FC: LeBron James
FC: Giannis Antetokounmpo
FC: Jimmy Butler
G: DeMar DeRozan
G: Kemba Walker

Last year, Giannis was listed as a frontcourt player. This season, good luck trying to track what position he is playing – he often starts at point on offense, defends forwards on defense, and recently has been finishing games at center – but the box scores are still putting him at forward (since the third game of the season, anyway).

If Giannis is a frontcourt player, then LeBron/Giannis/Butler stand above the rest. LeBron is closer than ever to averaging a triple-double, with career highs in rebounds (8.4) and assists (9.7). He might be the MVP right now. Giannis led the Bucks in points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals after one month of basketball (Dellavedova is now a few ahead in assists). Butler (hold on, he is shooting 42.6 percent on threes?) has taken another significant step forward – he is a superstar.

DeRozan made it painfully clear to Bucks fans on Friday how he is averaging roughly 30 per game this season. Kemba (who a few years back was basically Brandon Knight, statistically) is hitting everything now, and he has been the best of a strong bunch of point guards in the East.

FC: Al Horford
FC: Kevin Love
FC: Carmelo Anthony
G: Kyrie Irving
G: Isaiah Thomas
WC: John Wall
WC: Andre Drummond

The Celtics have been fantastic with the do-everything Horford (blowing past career highs in assists and blocks per game so far) on the floor. Yes, Love scored 34 in the first quarter the other day, but this was not a one-night thing – his per-minute numbers are starting to look an awful lot like his final season in Minnesota. Melo is roughly the same player as he was last year, which is roughly the same player he has been the past 10 years, which is to say, an All-Star (albeit less clearly so).

You could make a case for Kyrie starting over Kemba – in any event, Irving is playing the best (well, best regular season) ball of his career. Only five guys in the league have made more free throws than Thomas, which makes him an efficient high-volume scorer despite field goal and 3-point percentages that don’t stack up with the other point guards here.

Washington is off to a dreadful start, and that does not reflect well on Wall, but his numbers are better than ever, and he seems to be just about the only non-problem there. Drummond has plateaued offensively, but he is the anchor of one of the best defenses in the NBA and remains a dominant rebounder; his place on this roster is tenuous, but he gets the nod in a tough final cut.

Kristaps! Porzingis was the most difficult omission – he is putting up 20 a night, blocking shots, hitting threes, and will own New York by next season if not sooner. No one is more likely to move up than Paul George, who has not been exceptional enough to miss six games out of 18 and still make it. Before a couple relative duds in the last week, Hassan Whiteside would have been on the team, and the league’s leading rebounder (and Miami’s leading scorer!) is still a fair choice.

Then we have three all-around types for three teams pushing toward the top of the conference. Nicolas Batum brings everything together for the Hornets, but he is nursing an injury and needs to get that field goal percentage into the 40s and then some. Kyle Lowry is a nightly ball of fire for Toronto, but like Batum, must bump up his field goal and 3-point percentages. Paul Millsap is a touch off the pace of his previous three All-Star campaigns of the last three years, which is still just about good enough to make it.

Dwyane Wade carries 12 straight All-Star appearances and improbably re-introduced a 3-point shot to his arsenal, but too many guards have passed him by. Dwight Howard also has been good, but he is already a couple years removed from making the squad and is unlikely to break back in. For some reason, Brook Lopez leads the 3-point-happy Nets in threes made, but he does not rebound and the team defense is a disaster. If you combined Bradley Beal and Avery Bradley into one player – Bradley Bradley – that would perhaps still not be enough. Serge Ibaka has been the best player on, well, the Magic. Sorry for mentioning Serge Ibaka.

In the check-back-next-year file we have Joel Embiid and Jabari Parker.

While Giannis has been one of the five best players in the conference over the first month, the fan vote is still liable to make things dicey. Let’s say the same five from last year gets voted in by the fans (LeBron, George, Carmelo, Wade, Lowry). This would be unfortunate, but it is possible. Butler, DeRozan and Irving would seemingly be obvious picks by the coaches.

That would leave four spots available among Giannis, Kemba, Horford, Love, Wall, Thomas, Drummond, Porzingis, and the rest. Porzingis is also likely to garner a massive turnout, potentially pushing a would-be starter to the reserve pool.

Giannis – who still calls Khris Middleton (remember him?) the best player on the team – is clearly a star to those of us watching in Milwaukee. Might as well make it official.