AUBURN HILLS – The Pistons aren’t likely to match last year’s 44 wins – it would require them to go 17-8 in the season’s final 25 games – but they are likely to not only make the playoffs again but comfortably so, relatively speaking.
Says who?
Says ESPN.com, Basketball-Reference.com and TeamRankings.com. All three websites, using proprietary and slightly different projection models, come to essentially the same conclusion.
ESPN is most bullish on their odds, coming in at 74 percent. Basketball-Reference’s model carries the least favorable projection, yet still gives the Pistons a 68.5 percent shot – better than two in three. Team Rankings comes in at 69.1 percent. Two of the three, Basketball Reference the outlier, have the Pistons with the sixth-best odds in the East – better odds than both Chicago and Indiana, currently ahead of the Pistons in the standings. Basketball Reference has the Pistons with the seventh-best odds in the East.
It’s fair to guess that it’s largely an assumption based on remaining schedules. And the Pistons, by most accounts, have the easiest schedule among the half-dozen or so teams vying for the final few playoff spots. That factor doesn’t do much to inspire confidence from Stan Van Gundy, though, who has insisted all season that outcomes for his team are based far more on performance than opposition.
“I don’t know if I’ve ever understood that. It never seems to work out that way,” he said of trying to determine where wins and losses might come. “It’s always tough to beat the better teams; I get that part, but I don’t know. You’ve got to play the game ahead of you. I don’t look at that and I don’t look at it with other teams, either.”
The Pistons hit the All-Star break with a 27-30 record that has them holding the No. 8 position. But they’re just one game behind Chicago for seventh and one game ahead of Milwaukee and the cutoff line. A total of six games separates the seven teams currently slotted sixth (Indiana) to 12th (New York).
“We’ve got 10 or 11 teams in the East that there’s not a whole lot separating them,” Van Gundy said. “On any given night, anybody can win and any of those teams can beat teams ahead of them and lose to teams behind them. That’s sort of whre everybody is.”
Miami’s recent 13-game winning streak saw the Heat surge from 11-30 and a legitimate shot at a top-three pick to what Stan Van Gundy last weekend called “almost a sure-fire playoff team.” Then the Heat lost consecutive games to almost sure-fire lottery teams Philadelphia and Orlando before bouncing back Wednesday with a big road win at Houston.
The Heat are 10th, two games behind the Pistons. One rung below them is Charlotte, in a 1-11 tailspin and facing a brutal six-game road trip coming out of the All-Star break.
It starts at The Palace, which means the Pistons not only help themselves with a win but do grave damage to the Hornets’ chances of recovery by opening the “second half” – actually, less than a third of the NBA season – with a win over Charlotte.
Here’s a look at the seven teams in contention for the final three playoff spots with record, the number of home and road games remaining and their strength of schedule according to PlayoffStatus.com:
6. INDIANA (29-28; 12 home games, 14 road games; second-most difficult schedule among Eastern Conference teams) – The Pacers have managed to compile a winning record (29-28) despite a point differential of minus-0.9, worse than all teams from 6-12 except the Knicks, who are on the fringe of contention with a 23-34 record. But the Pacers have already won the season series with the Pistons with a 3-0 record.
7. CHICAGO (28-29; 13 home games, 12 road games; sixth-most difficult schedule) – The Bulls got a big win on Thursday over Boston on two late Jimmy Butler free throws. For all the turmoil and speculation about Fred Hoiberg’s job security and factions within the locker room, the Bulls have two go-to scorers in Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade to help win tight games. The Pistons are Bulls are 1-1 on the season with one game remaining in each other’s arena.
8. DETROIT (27-30; 13 home games, 12 road games; 15th-most difficult schedule) – The Pistons come into the break having won 9 of 15 games and 6 of 9. In Wednesday’s win over Dallas, Reggie Jackson broke out of a February malaise to score 22 points while hitting 8 of 12 shots and striking a proper balance between attacking and facilitating. His return to form, now that Van Gundy has everyone healthy, is as big as any factor for the Pistons over the final seven weeks.
MILWAUKEE (25-30; 13 home games, 14 road games; third-most difficult schedule) – Losing Jabari Parker was a blow, but getting Khris Middleton back can essentially wipe it out if he gets back to form. He showed signs of that against the Pistons earlier this week. Middleton’s 3-point shooting and his ability to post up in pick-and-roll sets when the Bucks induce switches to get him on smaller defenders gives their offense another dimension. Replacing Parker’s minutes with Michael Beasley and Mirza Teletovic gives Milwaukee plenty of scoring and 3-point shooting, too.
MIAMI (25-32; 14 home games, 11 road games; fifth-most difficult schedule) – The Heat continue to be a strong defensive team under Erik Spoelstra with the league’s No. 6 rated defense. As injuries stripped the Heat of some of their younger players (Justise Winslow, Josh Richardson), veterans given greater opportunity like James Johnson and Dion Waiters flourished.
CHARLOTTE (24-32; 12 home games, 14 road games; 10th-most difficult schedule) – On Dec. 30, the Hornets were 19-14 and tied with Boston for the third-best record in the East behind only Cleveland and Toronto. Since then, Charlotte is 5-18. There hasn’t been a real run of injuries to explain the tailspin. The road trip coming out of the All-Star break could prove the breaking point or a turning point for Steve Clifford’s team.
NEW YORK (23-34; 12 home games, 13 road games, eighth-most difficult schedule) – Not unlike Chicago, the distractions are great in New York – peaking with the recent dustup between owner James Dolan and folk hero Charles Oakley. The potential to pull it together starts with Carmelo Anthony and Derrick Rose playing at consistently high levels. Their margin for error is perilously thin, but there’s still a pulse with the Knicks.