In their past forays into the lottery, the players the Pistons picked were going to be measured against guys picked ahead of them. Greg Monroe’s career against that of DeMarcus Cousins and Derrick Favors. Brandon Knight’s against Kyrie Irving’s. Andre Drummond against Anthony Davis. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope against Ben McLemore.
Players who played the same position, who were considered peers from AAU ranks up through college and into the draft process.
This time, Stanley Johnson will be measured against a player picked after him – a player the Pistons could have taken instead. Stanley Johnson’s career will be measured forever – or at least until one decisively proves better than the other – against that of Justise Winslow.
But that wasn’t the comparison in the minds of Stan Van Gundy and his inner circle that shaped Thursday night’s decision to draft Johnson at No. 8 and leave Winslow to Miami, two picks later.
As if this drama needs another compelling element, consider that Johnson was Van Gundy’s choice and Winslow was taken by his NBA mentor, Pat Riley. The bit of intrigue we’ll likely never know: What would Riley have done with the pick at No. 8?
And how do we know the choice didn’t really come down to Johnson or Winslow for the Pistons? Because Van Gundy said so.
“I understand the comparison for Justise,” he said, “but that’s not really the comparison that it came down to for us.”
Van Gundy said he didn’t want to talk in specifics about the Pistons draft board, but we can safely assume two things: Johnson was higher than No. 8 and Winslow wasn’t next after Johnson, wherever he was.
Van Gundy said that Johnson and Emmanuel Mudiay, in some order, were the next two players on the Pistons board at their pick. He also said that once Sacramento passed on Mudiay for Willie Cauley-Stein, they knew they’d get Johnson because they were certain Denver would grab Mudiay. It’s doubtful Cauley-Stein held a top-eight value on Detroit’s board, given Van Gundy’s frank admission leading to the draft that picking a backup center at eight would be unlikely.
Sometimes teams take a player and can’t mask tepid feelings about him. That wasn’t the case Thursday night. Van Gundy, Jeff Bower, assistant GM Brian Wright – the guy who heads up draft scouting – all appeared thoroughly pleased.
When I asked Wright what differentiated Johnson from the group of small forwards tightly bunched on media draft boards – not just Winslow, but Kelly Oubre, Sam Dekker and Mario Hezonja, who went fifth to Orlando – he said: “A lot of things, but the one thing that really stood out with us was the mentality. I think you’ve heard it from him. He’s very confident. Wants to be great. And I think he’s going to bring that to our team right away.”
It was those media draft boards – and, frankly, mostly ESPN.com – that precipitated the impression that Winslow was the superior prospect. Van Gundy ascribed it to nothing more substantive than Winslow’s NCAA tournament run with Duke, which won it all while Arizona lost in the elite eight.
“Justise is a very good player and a great kid and competes very hard,” he said. “The main reason people ask that question is because he’s from Duke and they won the national championship. I’m just being honest. It’s not like people sat down and analyzed their games. I’m not going to get into anything that would negate Justise. I think he’s a really good player. We just thought Stanley was the best player on the board.”
Johnson’s a little taller and about 20 pounds heavier. He has a slightly longer wing span. Nobody knocks his motor, toughness or competitive edge. He led his Arizona team in scoring and was a narrow second in rebounding. Van Gundy called him the best rebounding wing player in the draft. He gets to the foul line more often than Winslow. They’re both fierce transition players. They both handle the ball well. They both shot the 3-pointer well as freshmen, yet both had their shots questioned by evaluators.
In short, there’s not much that separates them on the surface of it. It’s amazing there seemed to be such confidence among those who don’t evaluate players for a living that there was a gap between them.
After their high school careers ended – and that was barely a year ago – the two major recruiting websites, Rivals and Scout, both ranked Johnson the best small forward in the 2014 class and No. 3 overall, ahead of Winslow. What’s that worth? About as much as what the media guys who work for ESPN and rank college players is worth, I guess.
Here’s something to consider: What if Johnson had gone to Duke and Winslow to Arizona? What if Johnson had played next to Jahlil Okafor and Winslow next to Kaleb Tarczewski? What if Johnson’s point guard had been Tyus Jones? What if Duke had to come through the tougher West regional that Arizona had to navigate?
Would the public sentiment have swung as surely to Johnson’s side over the past few months as it wound up doing to Winslow’s?
None of that matters now. Johnson and Winslow will dictate who was right on draft night in the months and years ahead. And it will all start on July 6, when the Pistons and Heat meet in a Summer League game in Orlando. That ought to generate some ratings for NBA TV
I have no idea who’ll be the better pro. But it’s going to be fun watching it play out.