Training camp opens in less than three weeks and anticipation is building for the 2015-16 Pistons season, sparking questions about the roster and lineup combinations in the latest edition of Pistons Mailbag.
Atiba (Beaver Creek, Ohio): Kudos to SVG for putting together what I’m sure will be a playoff-worthy team for many years to come. For core pieces, I love Jackson, KCP, Johnson and Drummond. For now, I like Ilyasova but he is 28 and will be 30 as a free agent in two years. I’ve been keeping an eye on OKC and with the signing of Kanter, Durant on his last year and Westbrook coming up the year after, how likely is it that we can land Ibaka without sacrificing the core? He’s only 25 and would make the perfect power forward to pair with Drummond.
Langlois: Oklahoma City isn’t shipping away a player of that quality for less than equal value, but what that might be depends almost entirely on how the Thunder view themselves, Atiba. Right now, they’re among the top three or four contenders in the West – probably right there with San Antonio and defending champion Golden State. Where they’ll view themselves a year from now depends mostly on what happens with Kevin Durant’s free agency. If OKC is able to keep him, there would be very little probability of the Thunder looking to deal Ibaka. If Durant leaves, all bets are off. They could still view themselves as contenders, though, building around Westbrook. Or they could see a Durant exit as a near-certain sign that Westbrook is likely to follow and decide to dismantle. That would mean looking for some combination of young talent and draft picks in return. The Pistons have all of their future No. 1 picks, so they might have a chance to put something together. But I’d wager confidently that they’re not planning on that scenario – or any similar scenario – as a Plan A. Smart teams make good deals because they put themselves in position to take advantage of other teams’ urgent needs spurred by desperation. If the Pistons keep making great use of every asset – winning trades, capitalizing on draft picks, signing free agents to smart deals – they’ll be in position to acquire a player at some point who slots in next to Drummond, Jackson, Johnson and Caldwell-Pope as franchise building blocks. Three of those were their own lottery picks and it’s critical to get those right. Jackson came for two nice role players – Kyle Singler, a second-round draft hit, and D.J. Augustin, a smart free-agent signing, plus two future second-rounders – and that’s the kind of trade that might someday yield the power forward you would consider a fit with the young core.
Dawn (@TDreamer7): My favorites – Tayshaun and Jonas and Moose – are gone. Give me someone new to spark my interest to watch.
Langlois: ESPN put out a list a few weeks back listing Andre Drummond No. 4 and Reggie Jackson No. 6 among players likeliest to make a first All-Star game appearance this season. They’re going to be an entertaining pair of guys to watch, Dawn, and their talents are such that they’ll make each other better. My hunch is that playing with four out, one in almost exclusively this season – as opposed to the double-post sets that featured Drummond and Greg Monroe the last few seasons – is going to make the offense more efficient. And a more efficient offense with better shooting generally makes for a more fun team to watch. Within that framework, I think you’ll find new favorites emerge, separate and apart from the guys who consistently put up big numbers as Jackson and Drummond are likely to do. Stanley Johnson surely is a guy who has the qualities to endear himself to Pistons fans. He plays with a certain confidence, swagger and toughness that has been a characteristic of many Pistons fan favorites over the years. But so do guys like Aron Baynes, Marcus Morris, Ersan Ilyasova and Steve Blake. In fact, Stan Van Gundy told me earlier this summer that he thought all of those key additions brought one common element: toughness. There probably isn’t a fan base that doesn’t appreciate that quality, but I’m not sure there’s one that relates to it to a greater degree than Pistons fans do. Baynes, because he’s flying a little under the radar and because he’s a genuinely outgoing sort, has a chance to especially connect with Pistons fans.
James (Kirkland, Wash.): With the news that Stanimal and Dre will be living together this season, has Tom Gores thought about the possible value in a reality TV series? Given his connections to Hollywood through his brother, I’d think it was a no-brainer. OK, probably a distraction. Are there any other players on the roster that are living together? Any chance we could see a mini “MTV Cribs” sometime this season on Dre and Stanley’s bachelor pad?
Langlois: Drummond extended the invitation and Johnson was appreciative but undecided as of a few weeks ago. He was also checking out apartments. NBA players certainly have the wherewithal to get their own place and the vast majority of them do so. Every now and then – because they generally have off-season homes elsewhere and because even during the season they’re gone so much – a few thrifty teammates decide to share quarters. I endorse your idea, though – those two would provide some pretty entertaining moments. They’re serious about what they do for a living but they’re also young guys – Johnson 19, Drummond just turning 22 – with a ton of energy who enjoy interacting with the public and are savvy with social media. I’ll keep you posted if I hear of any hijinks they have planned.
Ralph (Syracuse, N.Y.): I’ve read that Adonis Thomas has signed a contract with some guaranteed money. What happens if he makes the roster? Will he earn the rookie minimum even though he has some past NBA experience?
Langlois: Thomas is considered to have one year of NBA service, Ralph, based on his time with the Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers on 10-day contracts in the 2013-14 season. So if his contract terms call for him to make the minimum, it would be the one-year veteran minimum, not the rookie minimum.
Bryan (@Bryan_10s): Lose Monroe and it’s going to equate to winning more games? Pistons have sold enough snake oil the last few years.
Langlois: I don’t recall Stan Van Gundy, Jeff Bower or anyone else guaranteeing more wins than a year ago, but they felt good about what they were able to add to the roster this off-season, Bryan, especially given the cost. Yeah, losing Monroe stings, but it’s not like it wasn’t anticipated. They made the June trade for Ersan Ilyasova on the probability that Monroe was going elsewhere. Let’s remember why the Pistons rightly anticipated Monroe would sign with another team. They knew Monroe’s best position was center – and they knew Monroe himself saw it the same way – and it was going to be difficult to get maximum effect from both Monroe and Andre Drummond as long as they were teammates. It’s one thing to have them both on the same roster on rookie contracts, when you can pour resources into other players that give you the opportunity to play a variety of ways. It’s another when you’re on the cusp of paying both maximum deals. It wasn’t a huge sample size, of course, but the Pistons went 7-4 when Monroe was hurt late last season despite the fact their depth was severely depleted and Reggie Jackson was just starting to settle in and become comfortable as the point guard. From that team that went 7-4, they’ve added Ilyasova, Marcus Morris, Stanley Johnson, Aron Baynes and Steve Blake and lost only the Caron Butler-Tayhsaun Prince small forward tandem. I don’t think it’s a stretch to believe a team with the improved depth, 3-point shooting and greater fit this one figures to have could win more than last season’s 32. I don’t think they’re going to start 5-23 again and I don’t foresee a 10-game losing streak after the trade deadline based on deals that radically alter the makeup of the roster. But we’ll see. Every season takes unforeseen twists and turns.
GPM (@GPMasters): With 18 players on the roster, who are the unlucky three?
Langlois: Let’s start with this: The roster doesn’t have to be down to 15 until the day before the season starts, so this situation might resolve itself. Trades are always possible, especially as injuries occur during the preseason. Barring a trade, Stan Van Gundy won’t make a decision until he’s seen what he needs to see. That might come before preseason games start, it could come midway through the eight-game preseason schedule or it might not come until the eve of the regular season. As for which players are on the roster bubble, first count the players who are locks: Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Marcus Morris, Ersan Ilyasova, Jodie Meeks, Stanley Johnson, Brandon Jennings, Steve Blake, Aron Baynes, Anthony Tolliver, Spencer Dinwiddie and Joel Anthony look safe with a good number of them virtual locks. It’s hard to envision a scenario in which second-round rookie Darrun Hilliard isn’t retained. That leaves one roster spot for Adonis Thomas, Reggie Bullock, Cartier Martin and Danny Granger if the latter comes to camp. Thomas’ contract is partially – not fully – guaranteed, setting him apart from the others. I don’t think that ultimately will factor. Tom Gores has consistently shown he’s willing to financially support Van Gundy’s roster decisions, no more graphic example necessary than the decision to waive Josh Smith and pay him the more than $30 million still remaining on his contract last December. The differences in salaries this time will amount to pennies compared to that outlay. If nothing else changes between now and late October and it indeed comes down to one roster spot for that cluster of four wing players, it will be determined solely on merit.
Kevin (Lansing, Mich.): I know a lot of people are comparing Stanley Johnson to Metta World Peace, but I’m kind of seeing Glenn Robinson there. Is that a fair comparison? I’m also wondering if Jodie Meeks could beat out KCP for the starting two? I feel that Meeks-Morris and KCP-Johnson combinations would be really interesting.
Langlois: The comp Stan Van Gundy volunteered earlier this summer to a young Jimmy Butler seems about as close as anything. But Johnson is a unique player and that means comps aren’t really easy to conjure. I had a flashback to a young Adrian Dantley – a player whose game evolved tremendously over the course of his NBA career – at times when I watched him use his strength, quickness and innate sense of how to use leverage to his advantage in Summer League play. I think Johnson’s game also is due to evolve significantly over the course of the next five years. I don’t think we really know yet what will emerge as his strengths. But all signs are very encouraging as far as Johnson growing into a very nice part of the team’s future. As for Meeks beating out KCP, Van Gundy will have an open mind. The locks to start are Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson and whichever combination of players plays off of them best will be the favorites to start. But Caldwell-Pope is the superior defender and he plays a position where a premium is placed on one-on-one defense against the caliber of player in other teams’ starting lineup. There will be plenty of chances for Johnson and Caldwell-Pope to be on the court together, particularly late in games with the Pistons protecting a lead and Van Gundy looking for some defensive stoppers.