The logic behind the trade for Ersan Ilyasova, the rest of the off-season Pistons shopping list and what the No. 8 pick in the draft could deliver is grist for the mill in this week’s edition of Pistons Mailbag.
Tom (Watervliet, Mich.): Why would Milwaukee trade Ersan Ilyasova to Detroit for what the Bucks received? Was it for cap space? This is a Detroit fan’s dream to get a player who should help for nothing they were counting on.
Langlois: Bingo – cap space. Unless the terms of the contracts being swapped are the same – both in total cost, in years committed and in annual value – you can’t really evaluate trades strictly on a talent-for-talent basis, Tom. Milwaukee understands it didn’t get equal value in return for Ilyasova from the standpoint of what Caron Butler and Shawne Williams can contribute next season. But the contracts of both players have team options, which means Milwaukee can cut them – as is fully expected – and use the cap space to get other things done. The Bucks are probably in the market for a big man – remember, the guy they planned on to be their long-term answer in the middle, Larry Sanders, is no longer there – and they also need cap space to retain restricted free agent Khris Middleton. With their future at power forward tied closely to Jabari Parker, they couldn’t justify paying Ilyasova $8 million next season when they had other needs to address. It’s another great example of why managing cap space well, as the Pistons have clearly done under Van Gundy and Jeff Bower, puts you in position to add valuable players on favorable terms. Other examples under Van Gundy: Getting D.J. Augustin on a very team friendly deal, without which the trade for Reggie Jackson isn’t possible, and the deal to take Anthony Tolliver off of Phoenix’s hands, a player who gives the Pistons quality depth behind Ilyasova at power forward.
Eric (Huntsville, Ala.): With the acquisition of Ersan Ilyasova, I think it’s clear we go with a small forward in the draft. If Winslow is there, take him. If not, take Johnson.
Langlois: The odds probably favored the Pistons taking a small forward in the draft even before the Ilyasova deal, Eric. Stan Van Gundy and Jeff Bower have said they’ll take the best player available while adding an important caveat: If they like two or a group of players equally, they’ll go for need. The way the draft sets up, it sure appears the strength of the draft will be in small forwards at No. 8. It could be Justise Winslow or Stanley Johnson, but it also could be Mario Hezonja or Kelly Oubre or Sam Dekker if the Pistons like them as well. Now, if the Pistons think a power forward (Kristaps Porzingis? Frank Kaminsky? Myles Turner?) or a shooting guard (Devin Booker?) is the best player, I still would expect them to go that way and fill the roster need at small forward via free agency or trade. But I think if you were betting, smart money would say small forward is the bet.
R.J. (Newark, N.Y.): With the Pistons needing more shooting, would they look at a guy like Devin Booker from Kentucky who is listed at 6-foot-6 and is said to be the best shooter in college? If he added more muscle and weight could he play small forward for the Pistons?
Langlois: We profiled him as one of the possibilities for the No. 8 pick, R.J., so, yeah, I think he’s a guy they’ve looked at long and hard. Could Booker give them minutes at small forward? Someday, sure. Immediately, probably not. He’s the youngest player in the draft – he won’t be 19 until Oct. 30 – and he’s going to have his hands full at one position initially. But as he matures and gains strength, he could play there situationally. We know Stan Van Gundy loves shooters – and the analytics surely support him on that – but there is a maze of considerations that will inform their decision on draft night. I wouldn’t put Booker in the top two or three most likely to be drafted, but my jaw wouldn’t drop if he’s the guy, either. I think he’s going to be a very good NBA player. Seems like he has a good head on his shoulders from what I saw of him at the NBA draft combine last month in Chicago.
Johnny (Shelby Twp., Mich.): Can we expect to see Quincy Miller in Summer League play this summer? What other players do you see playing?
Langlois: Yes, absolutely, Summer League will be big for Miller. If the Pistons indeed draft a small forward with their No. 1 pick, then Miller most likely would be their starting power forward in Summer League. He’s gained almost 20 pounds this off-season, he told me recently, so it’s probably destined to be his best position anyway. If he shows he can hit a reasonable percentage from the 3-point line and defend a variety of forwards, he’s got a great chance to stick on the 2015-16 roster. Stan Van Gundy likes his ability to shoot, his length and his athleticism. Showing he can translate that into production will be his ticket to a roster spot.
Noble Nags (@Nagstradamus): Do you think we will have a new power forward or will Greg Monroe be back next year?
Langlois: While both Stan Van Gundy and Jeff Bower have said publicly that their trade for Ersan Ilyasova doesn’t close the door on a reunion with Monroe, the likelihood isn’t great – and the Ilyasova acquisition probably doesn’t happen three weeks before free agency if the Pistons weren’t already inclined to believe that. Even bringing back Monroe now is problematic in that he would command a great deal of their cap space and doing so would leave the Pistons with no clear way to obtain a small forward – and keep in mind they almost surely are in the market for not one but two small forwards.
Isaiah (@isaiahfreedman3): If you were the Pistons and had to choose between Winslow and Hezonja, who are you taking?
Langlois: Instead of ending your question with “who are you taking?” I wish it would have ended with “what are you doing?” Because then the answer would be “celebrating.” I think those two guys are both destined to be outstanding NBA players. They’re not the only two, of course, and Stan Van Gundy said on Tuesday that the front office is relatively confident that whomever is there at eight will be someone they can throw into the rotation next season. But if you believe the consensus buzz from scouts, these two guys have a legitimate chance at stardom. And that’s where I put my faith.
Chris (Auburn Hills, Mich.): The Pistons need to draft Justise Winslow. Your article on him was right. No one checks off the boxes for the Pistons like he does. The Pistons need some “Justise” when last season we had our “Wins-Low.” The writing is on the wall. Thoughts?
Langlois: Points for creativity, Chris. He has all the ingredients to be a very good player. I’m not inside Pistons draft HQ, but when it’s all said and done I wouldn’t be surprised to find out someday he was the guy they were hoping to get simply because he seems to fit most everything Stan Van Gundy values. The only caveat there: Do the Pistons believe he can shoot it from the NBA 3-point line enough to give them the three shooters Van Gundy wants to put around Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson? Of the small forwards in the draft, Mario Hezonja is the one who seems to promise that more than the others. But does he measure up to Winslow in other areas in eyes of the Pistons? I don’t know the answer to that.
Rick (@Young_Dodger_B): SVG mentioned backup center is still a need. Do you think it will be addressed via draft or free agency?
Langlois: The answer is … yes! Actually, Stan Van Gundy said, “We know where our focus has got to be – the small forward spot and backup centers.” Centers – plural. It’s possible that the Pistons draft a center at No. 38 – someone like Syracuse’s Rakeem Christmas if he’s still available, a player who worked out for the Pistons. But I don’t think Van Gundy would want to entrust the No. 2 center position – the guy who’ll play 12 to 18 minutes a night behind Andre Drummond – to a second-round rookie. So if the Pistons land a small forward with the eighth pick and it’s somebody Van Gundy sees as at least capable of serving as the backup and in the rotation, then the No. 2 priority in free agency – right after getting a high-caliber free agent at small forward to compete with their lottery pick – will be a quality backup center. One candidate could be Joel Anthony, who filled the No. 3 center role ideally last season and expressed his interest in returning. If Van Gundy has a more appealing role this time around – the No. 2 center – it would seem like a logical reunion. Van Gundy said Tuesday they’ll probably have six big guys on their roster. If you count Drummond, Ersan Ilyasova and Anthony Tolliver in that group, then he needs three more from somewhere. Two of them – maybe the No. 3 center and a more traditional power forward – would quite possibly be veteran (or rookie) minimum contracts with the No. 2 center possibly getting a heftier deal.
Hevvy (Harper Woods, Mich.): Even though Greg Monroe is an unrestricted free agent, can the Pistons still get something for him if and when he signs with another team?
Langlois: A sign-and-trade is possible, Hevvy – something more than a long shot, but something less than the likeliest outcome. It probably would take a team that (1) can’t sign Monroe with cap space, so would need to purse a sign and trade; (2) has a strong case to make to entice Monroe over other offers; and (3) has a player it would be willing to deal to get Monroe who appeals to the Pistons. That adds up to a lot of moving parts and whittles the number of possibilities to a scant few. But a sign and trade isn’t necessarily more attractive – and, probably, it is more limiting – to the Pistons than merely converting the cap space a Monroe departure would mean into a player they like better from the much wider pool of free agents at large.
Josh (@bob_effert): Do you see a scenario where the Pistons trade up and draft Winslow?
Langlois: Not really, Josh. Even if the Pistons are high enough on Winslow that they’d consider moving up to eliminate the possibility that he’d be gone before they pick, it would take them having the type of disposable asset to lure another team into the deal. I’m not sure they have that. I’m pretty sure Stan Van Gundy wouldn’t part with a future No. 1 pick to move up a few spots and just as sure a future No. 2 pick wouldn’t do it. Do they have another player outside of their young core – Drummond, Jackson and KCP; throw in Ersan Ilyasova now, too – they’d be willing to deal who would have that type of attraction? Jodie Meeks? Maybe, but a team would be taking on another nearly $7 million against their cap so … maybe not. I think the Pistons wind up staying at eight, but I think it’s more likely they move down than up.
Lemar (Ann Arbor, Mich.): If Matt Barnes is cut soon, any chance Stan Van Gundy takes a flier on him for veteran insurance at small forward? I think he made $3.5 million last year. That’s friendlier than Caron Butler and I think we could get him at around the same price if he were willing to come here.
Langlois: I’ve felt Barnes has been a little undervalued for several seasons now, Lemar. That said, the Pistons might shoot a little higher in free agency. They’ll have almost $19 million to spend if Monroe signs elsewhere or they renounce him. That doesn’t mean they’ll be eager to overspend, of course, but they’ll probably hit free agency intent on getting somebody at small forward with a track record as a starter and a little more future in front of him. Barnes will turn 35 next season and, even though he's coming off a career-high 30 minutes a game for the depth-challenged Clippers, he’s probably better suited to fewer minutes than you’d want from a starter at this point of his career. And then you’d be really leaning on the No. 8 pick to essentially job share at small forward and he might not be ready for that, initially. Remember, if it’s somebody like Justise Winslow or Stanley Johnson, they’re 19-year-olds with one year of college basketball on their resumes. But I wouldn’t rule Barnes out. Definitely a name to keep in mind if Charlotte waives him, as has been speculated, though at the price and given Charlotte’s roster I struggle to see the logic for the Hornets in waiving him. If they don’t see a fit, he shouldn’t be a hard guy to trade.
Eric (Lansing, Mich.): Dwyane Wade could opt out of his contract with the Miami Heat. Do the Pistons have a shot at him?
Langlois: Other than a history with Stan Van Gundy, there’s almost no appeal from either side here, Eric. The Pistons need a small forward. Unless they had another move up their sleeve, signing Wade leaves them with a glut of shooting guards and no small forwards. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope can give you situational minutes there, but you’d run him into the ground with something more than that. And if Wade were to leave Miami – I’ll believe that when he’s pulling another jersey over his head – it is almost certain he’ll be involved with the handful of teams best positioned to win a title next season.
Aaron (Houston): What do you think the odds are of swinging a sign-and-trade deal with Oklahoma City, Monroe for Enes Kanter? I think Kanter is a better fit due to his shooting range and most likely will carry a cheaper price tag.
Langlois: Non-existent odds, Aaron. WhileMonroe’s best position is center, he still ranked as well above average at power forward. Kanter – my view here – has less positional versatility than Monroe. And he’s long been regarded as a subpar defender, a major reason Utah cast its lost with Rudy Gobert and made Kanter available in trade, though – yes – Kanter’s pending free agency also played a big role. Besides, just like in the Wade scenario above, the Pistons can’t put the bulk of their available resources this summer in any position other than small forward. Kanter is going to get a very big deal – maybe as big as Monroe’s.