Whether the Pistons are pointed in the right direction, Reggie Jackson’s play and future and the wisdom of trying to trade Aron Baynes are menu items in this week’s edition of Pistons Mailbag.
Bob (Albany, Oregon): What do you think of the general manager telling the coach that his young core is well suited to run? Ish had the team zipping and Reggie can run, also. That said, as the trade deadline nears it seems Stan Van Gundy should be looking at moving Baynes, if only to open up minutes for Boban and Ellenson. Even if they miss the playoffs, the Pistons are headed in the right direction. Your thoughts?
Langlois: Lots to chew on there in a few sentences, but let’s start with your suggestion that Van Gundy should direct the team to run. All I can tell you about that is he is constantly urging them to pick up the pace. Smith’s instincts – and his strength – are to get out in transition and look for early scoring opportunities, but Jackson isn’t quite as apt to push the pace. If you see a game in person – or even if you’re watching on TV – focus on Van Gundy when the Pistons grab a defensive rebound. You’ll see him frequently motioning with his arms to push up court. As for trading Baynes, as always it would depend what the offer is. But I’ve gotten suggestions they should move him for anything they can get – a second-round pick from a good team, even, meaning a pick 50 or later, most likely – and I don’t see the wisdom in that. Van Gundy believes – and the numbers back him up – that Baynes is an important to winning games. He’s consistently had one of, if not the best, plus/minus rating on the team this season and a similar defensive rating, for however much that metric can be trusted. Van Gundy’s focus is on righting the ship and making a playoff push; trading Baynes for a second-round pick surely can’t aid that pursuit. If the next five games before the All-Star break and the Feb. 23 trade deadline trend badly, maybe Van Gundy grudgingly concedes a playoff chase is improbable. I think him reaching that conclusion is very much a long shot, though. And yet he’s every bit a realist, which leads to your last point about the Pistons being headed in the right direction. I think he’d say that in general, that’s undeniably true. The Pistons have gotten markedly younger and better since he took over with a roster filled with desirable pieces on sound contracts. But if nothing changes between now and April 13 – if, in other words, the Pistons continue to win a few, lose a few and don’t become a consistently sound defensive team – then they’ll be blunt in their self-appraisals when Van Gundy convenes his cabinet and examines the season, the roster and the future. I’m not suggesting they’ll make a radical course alteration in that instance, but they’ll almost certainly identify the root causes of the stagnation, if that’s what it appears to be, and work to find personnel solutions.
Luke (@LukeWolthuis): Do you think Stan’s talk to Reggie Jackson about starting the second half with more energy would work?
Langlois: I’ll quote Jackson on this one, who said after Monday’s win over Philadelphia, “I don’t really base things off just one time happening, so I’ve got to see if it happens again.” Early returns were encouraging, but one game is not a trend.
Jeff (Utica, Mich.): Would it be better to trade Marcus Morris, who is the team leader, or Reggie Jackson, our “point guard of the future.”
Langlois: Not enough information. What’s the return? I don’t think Stan Van Gundy feels an urgency to trade any particular player, only to make deals that enhance the roster and the future. Morris is a tricky one given that he’s due to make $5 million each of the next two seasons, a paltry sum by the standards of current NBA starting players (or fringe rotation players not on rookie contracts, for that matter). If they were to trade him, my guess is it would be for a player still on a rookie contract – much easier to make the salaries match for trade purposes under CBA parameters, in other words – and probably one nearing the end of that deal for a team unable to sign him to a bigger contract or uncertain it wants to do so. It would be tougher to deal Jackson without having a starting point guard ready to take his place. They don’t grow on trees.
Banjo Buddha (@Discomfort_): Is Stan Van Gundy worried that the Reggie/Drummond pick and roll is not as effective as previously thought to be? If so, do you think even with his better play as of late, this means Reggie will be traded before the start of next season?
Langlois: I looked up Jackson’s pick-and-roll numbers last week, expecting to see fairly significant drop-offs from last season. The numbers didn’t reflect what the eye test suggested I would find. The number of possessions they employed a Jackson pick and roll was down ever so slightly (10.8 per game from 11.3), but the frequency of running them as a percentage of possessions was up ever so slightly. The number of points per possession was also up a tick, the number of points per game derived down 0.2 tenths of a point. Bottom line: It’s still a staple of their offense and it’s roughly as effective as it was a season ago. The biggest difference – also backed up by the eye test – is that Jackson isn’t getting as many free throws as a result of pick and rolls. And his assists coming out of pick and rolls are down. It’s fair to say it hasn’t been quite as good as it was last year. Whether that’s a hangover from Jackson’s injury or teams adjusting to defend it differently, who knows? Do I think Reggie Jackson will be traded because of that trend? Nope. If he’s traded – and I think the chances remain remote – it will be because Stan Van Gundy finds what he considers a better fit elsewhere.
Peter (Jackson, Mich.): Any chance the Pistons could swing a trade with Denver for Gary Harris? He would function as a replacement for KCP in the starting lineup next season and would be a great addition off the bench this year.
Langlois: I’ve not heard any indications Denver is looking to move on from Harris, their starter at shooting guard. He’s a year behind Caldwell-Pope in service time, so he has one year left on his rookie contract before he’ll be a restricted free agent – which Caldwell-Pope becomes this July. He’s a fairly similar offensive player to Caldwell-Pope, though Harris doesn’t shoot nearly as many shots from the 3-point line – 34 percent of his attempts are triples while Caldwell-Pope shoots 45 percent of his field goals from the 3-point arc. What would Denver reasonably want? Stanley Johnson? I’m not sure I see a match that would interest both sides. They have so many young players there now, I’m not sure another No. 1 pick holds much appeal.
Darrell (Detroit): How’s this for a blockbuster deal: Since the Cavs are desperate for a playmaker, how about trading Jackson and Baynes to Cleveland for Kevin Love? Not only can Jackson back up Irving, he can also play scoring guard. He’ll easily get starter’s minutes. And Baynes would be the only true center on the Cavs and could easily have better numbers than Tristan Thompson at 30 minutes per game. The Pistons will be stacked at the four spot, but that’s a good problem to have when one of the power forwards is Kevin Love. Ish Smith’s stretch earlier in the season showed he’s more than capable of running the team and the Pistons had the No. 2-ranked defense with Ish at the helm and Beno Udrih as the backup.
Langlois: I don’t know that the Cavs are desperate for a playmaker so much as LeBron James has expressed his desire to add one. But even if you assume that James has general manager powers – and I don’t buy it; influence, yes, but not executive power – I don’t believe he’d sign off on dealing Love. (Yeah, I saw the report he’s pushing for a Love-Carmelo Anthony deal. I don’t endorse that idea, but he’s long mused about playing with him.) I think the Cavs would like to acquire a point guard to replace what they had in Matthew Dellavedova – someone capable of safeguarding the basketball but who doesn’t require having the ball in his hands on every possession. What they need isn’t someone of the level that would require sacrificing a piece as integral to their offense (and rebounding prowess) as Love.
Jacob (@JacobExum77): Why not try to trade Baynes and get something for him before he leaves in the summer?
Langlois: I’ve had a variation of this question a few times now. The answer remains the same. The Pistons go into tonight’s game with the Lakers four games under .500 and clinging to the No. 8 spot in the playoff race. Aron Baynes has been a part of every one of Stan Van Gundy’s best defensive units all season. The defense has been the biggest variable for the Pistons in wins and losses. They need every win over the season’s final 30 games to enable a playoff drive and they need all hands on deck to get their defense to a consistent level. Trading Baynes – assuming the “something” they get in return doesn’t promise the same degree of immediate help – surely doesn’t help a playoff chase this season. You have to be realistic about the return you’d expect. If some team were to offer a No. 1 pick, I’m guessing that would give Stan Van Gundy and GM Jeff Bower something to consider. But if it’s a future No. 2 pick (and given the likelihood that the team offering the pick would also be a playoff contender, meaning their own No. 2 pick isn’t very likely to be one in the 30s, where the odds give you a much better chance of landing a player who’ll carve out a significant career), is that worth diminishing the odds of a successful playoff bid? Not from my perspective.
Odor (@odor31): Boban hasn’t played in the last six games, his longest DNP streak so far. Is there a reason for not even getting garbage minutes?
Langlois: Stan Van Gundy is respectful of veterans when it comes to putting them in games for the last few minutes. He talked specifically about Beno Udrih and that situation just this week. “You’re at the six-, seven-minute mark, they’ve got a chance to go in and play. You’re at 2:47 and it’s just tough. I’ll do it when absolutely necessary to get guys out of the game or I’ll do it with rookies. But I won’t really do it with veteran-type guys very much.” With Andre Drummond and Aron Baynes, there just aren’t minutes for a third center. And for now, Van Gundy has determined that what Baynes brings – by the numbers, he’s been their best defensive player – is more important to the Pistons than Boban’s production as a scorer and rebounder.