Pistons Mailbag - April 22, 2015

How the Pistons go about getting back over the off-season in the draft and free agency dominates the conversation in this week's Pistons Mailbag.

Samuel (Ann Arbor, Mich.): I was surprised that Boston got into the playoffs and as the No. 7 seed. It's a team I would have expected to be destined for a top-five lottery pick. Rondo was traded and Sullinger was hurt for a decent chunk of time. What was their key to success and why couldn't a team like the Pistons, with much more apparent talent, make the playoffs?

Langlois: Boston has depth and versatility and a coach, Brad Stevens, who did a very good job of putting it all together. Probably not a lot of separation from the best player on the roster to the back end of the rotation, but the Celtics were a pretty good team, especially at the offensive end. All of their big guys – Sullinger, Brandon Bass, Kelly Olynyk, Tyler Zeller – can step away from the basket and shoot. The development of Avery Bradley gave the Celtics a big boost. He's always been a superb defender but he's now developed a reliable 3-point shot. A perimeter of Bradley, Marcus Smart, Jae Crowder and Evan Turner gave the Celtics size and the versatility to switch defensively. Then landing Isaiah Thomas gave Boston tremendous scoring punch off its bench. And ex-Piston Jonas Jerebko added to the versatility, playing at both forward spots. Boston has seven extra first-round picks coming over the next four drafts, so the Celtics are going to have a chance to land an elite talent or two to augment its depth with a franchise cornerstone. Stan Van Gundy likes his outlook with the Pistons, though, with a young core of Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. He thought depth was going to be a strength for the Pistons this year, but injuries meant it wasn't the case except for their 12-3 stretch in January, before Brandon Jennings went down. Before that, the backcourt depth was caught short by Jodie Meeks' early-season injury that cost him the first 22 games. Then the depth took a further hit when the Pistons made their trade-deadline deals, shipping out three rotation players (D.J. Augustin, Kyle Singler, Jonas Jerebko) and getting back two (Jackson, Tayshaun Prince.) The Pistons have the means – between their lottery pick, a high second-rounder and, mostly, lots of cap space – to restore their depth this off-season. Remember, it's a lot easier to build the back end of the roster than it is the front end. The Pistons have a better front end of the roster than Boston. It's the back end that enabled Boston to make the playoffs this season.

Ku (Detroit): When Brandon Jennings comes back from injury, if (more like when) he outplays Reggie Jackson, will he be given back the keys to the franchise? Or is he virtually a backup no matter what he can do? People are talking about Reggie's numbers looking like All-Star numbers over the last 10 games, but the way he's getting these numbers is not efficient. I believe Jennings will outplay Jackson and prove he's a much better fit alongside KCP and Drummond. So (1) can Jennings take his starting spot back that has apparently been given to Jackson; (2) when he does outplay him, will Van Gundy bring him back or let him walk and (3) do you think the Pistons are going to overpay for Jackson?

Langlois: Let's look at comparable stretches, Ku – Jennings at his best and Jackson at his best. For Jennings, it was the 16 games he played after the Pistons waived Josh Smith. In those games, he averaged 19.7 points, 7.0 assists and 2.3 rebounds a game, shooting .439 from the field and .390 from the 3-point line on 6.6 triples and 3.9 free-throw attempts per game. In Jackson's last 16 games of the season, he averaged 19.9 points, 10.9 assists and 4.9 rebounds a game, shooting .480 from the field and .400 from the 3-point line on 2.8 triples and 5.1 free-throw attempts per game. Jennings committed 34 turnovers to Jackson's 60, so there's Jennings' advantage. He also didn't have to play quite as many minutes as Jackson, who didn't have the luxury of being backed up by D.J. Augustin. (Remember, Augustin finished some of those big Pistons wins during their 12-3 run, including the win at Dallas on the second night of a back to back after Jennings' dramatic game-winner at San Antonio the night before.) Also, Jackson didn't have the 3-point shooting depth around him that Jennings did. The Pistons went 12-4 in Jennings' 16-game spurt, 9-7 over Jackson's final 16 – again, I think you can chalk up the difference to the difference in Pistons depth and 3-point shooting at the time of their great January stretch. If Jennings comes back healthy, the Pistons are going to be in a great place at point guard for one season, at least. Because it's likely that Jackson will sign a long-term contract this summer and Jennings is entering the final season of his deal, odds favor Jackson being Pistons point guard beyond 2015-16. But Jennings' health, as Van Gundy has discussed, is in question. An Achilles is not the relatively sure thing to recover from that a clean ACL tear, for instance, is today. Jennings relies on his quickness and change-of-direction ability to create scoring chances. The hope is that the fact he doesn't carry a ton of weight will help, but nobody really knows how quickly or how much he'll be able to contribute next season. So his health is the key to your first question. As for (2), the ball will be in Jennings' court – he'll be an unrestricted free agent in July 2016, so it's not really Van Gundy's decision to make. As for what Jackson will command on the market, I think it's fair to say the Pistons understood the range when they traded for him and are satisfied they can come to an agreement that doesn't make them uncomfortable.

Scott (@brodiegames): Who are the Pistons likely targets to upgrade at small forward in the off-season? Do you expect it comes from the draft or free agency?

Langlois: You can look at the lists of top free agents and do your own deductions, Scott. By consensus, the top unrestricted free agent at small forward appears to be Atlanta's DeMarre Carroll. He's got good size and toughness for the position, plays defense and has developed a 3-point shot. He's in a good situation in Atlanta, so it would appear to make sense for both sides to keep it going. Then there are a number of restricted FAs at small forward: Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris top the list – no-doubt starters and top-tier talents – but the likelihood of their teams not matching virtually any offer is small, Leonard and Butler especially. Guys like Kyle Singler and Jae Crowder are quality players who could start or come off the bench. But as Stan Van Gundy has said, in order to get a restricted free agent you have to overpay. Offer a fair-market deal that the player finds attractive enough to commit to an offer sheet and all you've really done is conduct the negotiations for the original team – in all likelihood, it will match and keep its player. Teams vulnerable to luxury-tax concerns might be scared away by an offer sheet, but with the cap expected to go up significantly by July 2016 it won't be the issue it might have been in the past. Is a small forward more likely to come from the draft or free agency? They might get one of each, depending on what Van Gundy's front office decides to do with Caron Butler's option. I just don't think you can count on your starter coming from the draft.

Steven (@steven_welling): If the Pistons don't move up in the lottery, whom do you think will be there top two or three players to target?

Langlois: Fun to speculate, but keep in mind that's all it is. Teams guard their scouting intel zealousy. What we know of Stan Van Gundy is he puts a premium on character and smarts. He also likes shooters and the Pistons need to replenish their 3-point shooting depth after trading D.J. Augustin, Kyle Singler and Jonas Jerebko. If he can get all of that in one package, that's an ideal candidate to be the pick. The consensus top four for this draft are Jahlil Okafor, Karl-Anthony Towns, D'Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay. If the Pistons stay at No. 8, they'll probably be picking from a pool of about 10 players that might include, but might not be limited to, a group of small forwards (Justise Winslow, Stanley Johnson, Kelly Oubre, Mario Hezonja), stretch-four types (Frank Kaminsky, Kristaps Porzingis, Bobby Portis, Myles Turner) or hybrid forwards (Trey Lyles, Sam Dekker, Kevon Looney). Kentucky big man Willie Cauley-Stein is also a top-10 prospect and, though not necessarily a great fit with Andre Drummond, if he's viewed as the best talent at their spot I have no doubt they'd grab him. If Greg Monroe leaves, Van Gundy is going to be in the market for a backup center and Cauley-Stein would seem ideally suited to step immediately into that role and give the Pistons a potentially elite rim defender with the lateral quickness to smother pick-and-roll plays, too. If the Pistons' assessment of the draft comes relatively close to the consensus of the most credible draft sites, then this draft meshes with their needs pretty well. Other than Russell and Mudiay, it doesn't appear to be a draft rich with backcourt talent among the top 15 players. The Pistons are pretty well set at guard with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jodie Meeks, Reggie Jackson (assuming his restricted free agency resolves as anticipated), Brandon Jennings (assuming his Achilles rehab goes well) and Spencer Dinwiddie.

Buk (Bangkok, Thailand): With the pending increase in the salary cap, do you think more teams will be willing to "overpay" for restricted free agents? I don't see why the Pistons wouldn't make a huge offer to someone like Jimmy Butler. The worst-case scenario is that they lose out on a few free agents they probably weren't going to get anyway while forcing the Bulls to match. What's the downside to this strategy?

Langlois: Every front office will have mapped out its payroll structure for each season going out five years, Buk. And every front office will account for the expected bumps in the cap. I don't know that there's any way possible to "overpay" an All-Star-level player, which Butler is, in today's dollars against the expectation for what that player would get on the open market in two or three seasons. In other words, a team with a player of Butler's ilk about to hit free agency would have a lot more of a decision on its hands if it had to match a max contract without the expectation that a max contract two years from now will be for significantly more money. If you're going to get a restricted free agent by "overpaying," it's probably going to be for a player a level or two below Butler. The downside, of course, is teams that extend offer sheets agreed to by restricted free agents have the amount of the first-year salary of the offer sheet tied up for the three-day period the original team has to decide if it will match. When you say the worst-case scenario is that "a few" free agents they probably weren't going to get anyway will be gone, well, that's a pretty unattractive scenario. If the Pistons make a list of attractive small forwards, there probably will be only a few that they decide are both compatible and realistic. Giving other teams a 72-hour head start while they case unrealistic options very likely will count them out of the running.

Nathan (Zeeland, Mich.): How plausible would it be to draft a stretch big – I'm thinking Frank Kaminsky or Kristaps Porzingis – let Monroe walk and go hard after Draymond Green?

Langlois: Lots of moving parts on a one-sentence question, Nathan. Start with how realistic it is to have a shot at Kaminsky or Porzingis: very on Kaminsky and less than 50-50 on Porzingis. Kaminsky is ranked 13th by ESPN.com and 10th by Draftexpress.com. There is almost zero chance the Pistons draft 10th or lower when they'll enter the May 19 lottery in the No. 8 slot. Porzingis is No. 8 according to Draft Express and No. 5 by ESPN. Those rankings can and likely will go up and down a time or two between now and June 25, but Porzingis has consistently been ranked a handful of spots higher than Kaminsky throughout the season. As for the "let Monroe walk" part of the equation, again, the ball is in Monroe's court. The Pistons have made it known, through Stan Van Gundy's public comments consistently on the matter, that they want Monroe back. They'll make their best pitch. Monroe's agent, David Falk, has said he expects a quick resolution – like, in the first 24 to 48 hours – on Monroe. So the Pistons will at least have a chance to move on quickly if Monroe goes elsewhere. Whether Green is on their list of fall-back options, who knows? I remain skeptical that coveted restricted free agents are getting away from their original teams.