Behind the Numbers

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Jim Eichenhofer

A look at three key numbers related to Saturday’s 2:30 p.m. Central game in the Smoothie King Center between Oklahoma City and New Orleans (Bally Sports, TNT, WRNO 99.5 FM):

51/44/82: Brandon Ingram percentage shooting splits during the 2023-24 regular season in home games, compared to his rates of 48/27/79 on the road. That makes the eighth-year starting small forward and 2020 Western Conference All-Star an outlier among his teammates, many of whom inexplicably shot the ball noticeably better in away games – leading to New Orleans finishing with a 39.7 road three-point percentage (second among the 30 NBA teams). The Pelicans shot 36.8 percent on treys in the Blender, which ranked just 17th. Four of Ingram’s top six scoring games during the regular season occurred in Louisiana, topped by his 41-point barrage vs. Toronto on Feb. 5, featuring 8/11 accuracy from beyond the three-point arc.

4-3: Round 1 Game 3 records over the last two NBA playoffs of lower-seeded teams, in the seven instances in which they started a series down 0-2 (through Thursday’s action). New Orleans will try to follow in the Thursday footsteps of Philadelphia and Orlando, who lost a pair of road games apiece to open Eastern Conference series vs. higher seeds New York and Cleveland, respectively, but posted victories in returns home for Game 3. The 76ers lost a brutally heartbreaking Game 2 in the final seconds at Madison Square Garden, but then prevailed 125-114 in Pennsylvania to get back in the series against the Knicks. Meanwhile, Orlando couldn’t buy a perimeter bucket during its first two games in Ohio against the Cavaliers, but the Magic were red-hot Thursday in Florida, rampaging to a 38-point victory. Among those three Round 1 Game 3 losses by home teams that trailed 0-2 over the past two springs, two have come vs. 2023 NBA champion Denver, which took a 3-0 edge over Minnesota a year ago, then seized the same series lead on the Lakers last night.

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Willie Green on Game 3 adjustments vs. OKC Thunder 4/26/24

3: Among New Orleans’ five lowest-scoring games of this season (a total of 86 outings, including four play-in and playoff contests), three have come against Oklahoma City, a credit to the Thunder’s defense and ability to contain the Pelicans. However, New Orleans still has not had both Ingram and Zion Williamson available for any of the five head-to-head meetings against OKC, enabling the Thunder to hone in more intently on the club’s available primary weapons. The Pelicans have only been limited to 92 points or less in five instances in all of 2023-24, but tallied exactly 92 points in each of the first two games of this playoff series, as well as a season-low 83 on Jan. 26 vs. OKC. Subpar three-point shooting by NOLA has carried over from the regular season, after it went just 36/116 (31 percent) in the three Thunder meetings between Nov. 1 and March 26.

Josh Giddey, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren

Notes: All five Thunder starters contributed double-digit points in Game 2, combining to shoot an outstanding 40/66 from the field (61 percent). Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams totaled 23/36 shooting (64 percent) and were 4/8 on three-pointers. … Oklahoma City’s last playoff-series triumph occurred in 2016. The Thunder have not clinched a playoff series on the road since the second round of the 2014 postseason (won Game 6 at the LA Clippers).

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Trey Murphy III & Jose Alvarado on Game 3 vs. OKC Thunder 4/26/24

CJ McCollum, Herb Jones, Brandon Ingram, Trey Murphy, Jonas Valanciunas

Notes: Four of the five Pelicans starters registered double-digit points in Game 2, combining to shoot a solid 28/55 (51 percent). However, the bench struggled from the field at 5/18 (28 percent) and total turnovers (18) were extremely costly. … New Orleans’ most recent playoff-series victory occurred in 2018 (first-round sweep over Portland). The Pelicans have never clinched a playoff series on the road, wrapping up Round 1 deciders in the Smoothie King Center vs. Portland (2018) and Dallas (2008).

RESTORE HOME FLOOR ADVANTAGENew Orleans would love a repeat of its most recent performance in the Crescent City, a 105-98 verdict over Sacramento in an April 19 play-in elimination game. Since Feb. 1, the Pelicans are 6-4 in home games played by Ingram, who was sidelined for the team’s entire 1-5 homestand that bridged March and April.REGAIN DEFENSIVE IDENTITYA consistently swarming, aggressive New Orleans team defense have not looked like that in this playoff series against Oklahoma City. The Pelicans averaged 8.3 steals per game during the regular season (ranking third in the NBA), but only came up with 4.0 in Paycom Center this week. New Orleans was sixth in forcing turnovers (14.2) in 2023-24.MATCHUP TO WATCHIt’s imperative that New Orleans wins the bench battle, after OKC held the upper hand in the Sooner State to begin the series. Naji Marshall, Larry Nance Jr. and Jose Alvarado were major difference-makers last week in the play-in win over the Kings that pushed the Pelicans into the playoffs.

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Behind the Numbers: Thunder at Pelicans, Game 3 (4/27/2024)

A look at three key numbers related to Sunday’s 8:30 p.m. Central game in Paycom Center between New Orleans and Oklahoma City (Bally Sports, TNT, WRNO 99.5 FM):

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2024 NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Pelicans Game 1 HYPE

135, 19: Career playoff games for New Orleans’ projected starters, then the tally for Oklahoma City’s first string. Generally speaking, a 1-8 playoff series in the NBA often features a veteran-laden No. 1 seed against an inexperienced, young upstart as the lower seed, but the opposite is relatively the case in this Pelicans-Thunder matchup. CJ McCollum leads New Orleans with 63 career playoff games, followed by 54 from Jonas Valanciunas, accounting for a big chunk of the Crescent City’s postseason resume. The remaining 18 games from current Pelicans starters is comprised of six games apiece for Herb Jones, Brandon Ingram and Trey Murphy (all from a 2022 series vs. Phoenix the Suns won 4-2). For Oklahoma City, the only starters who’ve appeared in the playoffs are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (13 games) and Lu Dort (six games), both members of the 2020 Thunder squad that faced Houston in the Orlando bubble. Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are in their third, second and first NBA seasons, respectively. Incidentally, New Orleans deep reserve Cody Zeller played in 21 playoff games for Miami in just the 2023 postseason alone (32 total in his NBA career).

4, 6: Defensive efficiency rankings among the 30 NBA teams for Oklahoma City and New Orleans, respectively, during the regular season. The Thunder (111.0 points allowed per 100 possessions, via NBA.com) and Pelicans (111.9) have relied heavily on defensive prowess to make big jumps record-wise from last season, when Oklahoma City went 40-42, while New Orleans was 42-40. Both defenses are highly disruptive, pestering ballhandlers and getting in passing lanes to force turnovers. The Thunder led the NBA in steals per game (8.5); the Pelicans were third in that category (8.3). For the most part, the three-game season series between these clubs also reflected an advantage for the defense over the offense – neither team topped 110 points in either of the first two matchups, before Oklahoma City prevailed 119-112 in the March 26 meeting.

8: Wins separating first-place Oklahoma City (57-45) and No. 8 seed New Orleans (49-33) in the Western Conference standings. That’s the smallest gap in a West 1-8 series since 2010, when the LA Lakers (57-25) faced Oklahoma City (50-32) in the quarterfinal round. By comparison, the last time the Pelicans made the playoffs they were also an 8 seed, but entered the bracket with 28 fewer wins than their first-round opponent, Phoenix (New Orleans went 36-46 in 2021-22, while the Suns were 64-18). A season ago, the gap was 11 victories between Denver (53-29) and Minnesota (42-40), but that was an extremely rare case of a West top seed winning under 55 games. Even in the Covid-shortened campaigns of 2019-20 and 2020-21, the differentials were 17 and 14, respectively.

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Jose Alvarado | Pelicans-Thunder Game 1 Shootaround | 2024 NBA Playoffs

Notes: This combination is 4-1 this season when including the play-in triumph over the Kings. … Murphy is 16-8 as a starter. Sunday will be his first playoff start; he came off the bench in all six games in his rookie year vs. Phoenix. … New Orleans’ defense finished second in the NBA in three-point percentage allowed (34.9), an area that could be pivotal vs. Oklahoma City’s offense, which led the league in three-point percentage. … Only five Pelicans players appeared in all three regular season games against the Thunder, including McCollum, Jones, Valanciunas, Larry Nance Jr. and Jordan Hawkins.

Notes: This combination went 46-17 during the regular season, one of 12 starting lineups used by Mark Daigneault, compared to 16 used by Willie Green. … Seven Thunder players appeared in all three regular season games against the Pelicans, including every starter, plus reserves Cason Wallace and Isaiah Joe. … As was the case for New Orleans in the three-game season series, several of Oklahoma City’s highest-volume three-point shooters struggled with accuracy – Holmgren and Gilgeous-Alexander shot 24 and 25 percent from distance, respectively. Giddey was a positive outlier at 46 percent.

CONTAIN DRIVESGilgeous-Alexander is the NBA’s most persistent and effective driver, preferring to get into the paint instead of relying on jumpers. But he’s not the only Oklahoma City threat to penetrate, with Williams and Giddey also capable of steering past a defender to score or dish to a teammate. That’s one reason the Thunder led the NBA in three-point percentage (38.9). Eight OKC players shot 39 percent or better from the arc.DOMINATE ON THE BOARDSOn paper, rebounding is the biggest season-long edge New Orleans (No. 10 in percentage) holds over Oklahoma City (No. 28), but that wasn’t always the case in the head-to-head meetings. When the Thunder beat the Pelicans 119-112 on March 26 in the Blender, the visitors enjoyed a 45-37 advantage in boards, topped by nine each from Holmgren and Giddey, along with seven by backup center Jaylin Williams (not to be confused with starter Jalen Williams).MATCHUP TO WATCHMurphy and Jalen Williams are two young players who could catch the attention of national TV audiences over the next two weeks, as rising talents. Murphy has six games of playoff experience under his belt from his rookie year, but he’s filling a much larger role now, replacing Zion Williamson as a starter. Santa Clara product Williams is OKC’s second-leading scorer.

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Behind the Numbers: Pelicans at Thunder, Game 1 (4/21/2024)

A look at three key numbers related to Sunday’s 2:30 p.m. Central game in the Smoothie King Center between the Los Angeles Lakers and New Orleans (Bally Sports, ESPN, WRNO 99.5 FM, KGLA 105.7 FM):

1: New Orleans magic number to clinch a playoff berth entering Sunday’s extremely consequential Western Conference matchup against Los Angeles. A win by the Pelicans (49-32) – or a loss by 48-33 Phoenix at Minnesota – will seal the No. 6 seed for the Crescent City and an automatic trip to the playoffs. However, if New Orleans loses Sunday – combined with a Phoenix win in Target Center – the Pelicans will be the West’s seventh seed and host a Tuesday play-in tournament game against the same Lakers squad. There is nearly as much at stake Sunday for Los Angeles (46-35), with a win guaranteeing the No. 8 seed and a Tuesday play-in tournament game in either New Orleans or Phoenix. If the Lakers lose, they potentially could make a costly drop to either ninth or 10th place, depending on the results of Sunday games played by Sacramento (45-36) and Golden State (45-36). LA would lose every tiebreaker against the Kings or Warriors, putting them in the 9/10 play-in elimination game. Both of those Northern California teams are hosting 2:30 p.m. games Sunday against out-of-contention opponents.

10, 4: Times in franchise history that a New Orleans player has appeared in all 82 games of a regular season, then the times a player has started all 82 games in a campaign. By starting at center Sunday, Jonas Valanciunas would make it 11 and five in those categories, the latter putting him in the same exclusive company as Robin Lopez (2012-13), Emeka Okafor (2009-10) and Jamaal Magloire (2002-03 and 2003-04), who incidentally also played the “five” position. The other Pelicans/Hornets players with “perfect attendance” in one season apiece over the club’s 22-season history are Darius Miller, E’Twaun Moore, Rasual Butler, Jannero Pargo, P.J. Brown and Jamal Mashburn (fact via Pelicans TV statistician Tommy Cooper). Durability is nothing new for Valanciunas, who’s played in 234 games for New Orleans (out of a possible 245) over his three seasons.

24.2: Brandon Ingram scoring average in his 15 career games vs. the Lakers, the forward’s highest offensive production against any opponent over his eight NBA seasons. Ingram (left knee bone contusion) is listed as questionable to play in Sunday’s game, making it possible that he’ll be in uniform for the first time in 3.5 weeks. During the Pelicans’ 129-109 victory over the Lakers on New Year’s Eve, Ingram was right around his normal point tally vs. the NBA franchise where he spent his first three seasons, registering 26 points on 10/18 shooting, including 4/7 three-point accuracy. He was also a factor at the other end of the floor, blocking two shots and coming up with three steals (tied for his season high in thefts).

D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, LeBron James, Rui Hachimura, Anthony Davis

Notes: James (ankle) and Davis (eye) are listed as probable. Jarred Vanderbilt (foot) and Christian Wood (knee) are out. … This starting combination is 17-6. Darvin Ham has used 19 different starting lineups this season. … The Lakers can finish eighth, ninth or 10th in the West. They’ve made the playoffs three times in the previous 10 seasons, with all of those appearances coming since 2020 (won NBA title in Orlando bubble). … Sunday’s outcome will dictate Los Angeles’ travel itinerary this week, with a win meaning the Lakers stay on the road as a No. 8 seed, facing New Orleans or Phoenix. A Sunday loss could yield a Wednesday home game as a No. 9 seed, or a Wednesday road game as a No. 10. On the plus side travel-wise, if the Lakers are 10th, their away tilt would be in same-state San Francisco.

CJ McCollum, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy, Zion Williamson, Jonas Valanciunas

Notes: Ingram (knee) and reserve forward Naji Marshall (shoulder) are questionable. … This starting combination is 8-5, intact for the entire 4-0 road trip. Willie Green has used 16 different starting lineups this season. … The Pelicans can finish sixth or seventh in West. They’ve made the playoffs three times in the previous 10 seasons (2015, 2018, 2022). … New Orleans is guaranteed at least three more home games. If it wins Sunday, it advances to the playoffs. If it loses, it could still advance to the playoffs (if Phoenix also loses Sunday), or (if Phoenix wins) have a Tuesday play-in game in the Blender (then either a Friday play-in home game, or a minimum of two Crescent City dates in Round 1 of the playoffs).

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Game Rewind: New Orleans Pelicans vs. Golden State Warriors 4/12/24

LOCKED IN FROM THE ARCThe Pelicans and Lakers have been among the NBA’s hottest-shooting teams in April, with New Orleans ranked second in three-point percentage (42.4). The Lakers are eighth (37.3). During a road back-to-back at Sacramento and Golden State on Thursday and Friday, the Pelicans became the first NBA team all season to sink 20-plus treys in consecutive games while shooting at least 50 percent in both instances. That’s only been done seven times in NBA history.HUSTLE GAMEThe Pelicans’ pair of defeats this season to the Lakers were two of their poorest defensive showings of 2023-24, but in their Dec. 31 win by a 20-point margin, New Orleans swarmed to nine steals and six blocks. The Pelicans also won offensive rebounding 12-4, creating a significant 25-7 edge in second-chance points.MATCHUP TO WATCHMcCollum has been on a tear from three-point distance lately, on Friday becoming the first New Orleans player ever to make eight-plus three-pointers in two straight games. Meanwhile, deliberate southpaw Russell has also been lighting up the scoreboard from downtown, a vital element of the Lakers’ improved play. McCollum is fourth in the NBA in average three-point makes (4.0) since the All-Star break; Russell is sixth (3.5).

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Behind the Numbers: Lakers at Pelicans (4/14/2024)

A look at three key numbers related to Thursday’s game in Golden 1 Center between New Orleans and Sacramento (9 p.m. Central, TNT, WRNO 99.5 FM):

3: New Orleans magic number to clinch a playoff berth by finishing in sixth place in the Western Conference. The Pelicans (47-32) could accomplish that feat as early as Friday at Golden State, but for it to occur, they’d need to beat the Kings and Warriors over the next two nights in a road back-to-back, while also having Phoenix (47-33, seventh place) lose Friday in Sacramento. Otherwise, New Orleans’ postseason seeding won’t be decided until Sunday’s 2:30 p.m. home game vs. the Lakers (unless the Pelicans go 0-2 in Northern California, plus the Suns win Friday, which would wrap up the No. 6 seed in the other direction for Phoenix). That Lakers-Pelicans game was picked up by national television this morning, with ESPN choosing to broadcast it among several potentially consequential Sunday games in the West (such as Phoenix-Minnesota).

0: Times in New Orleans franchise history that it has defeated the same opponent five times within a regular season, which will be the case if the Pelicans beat the Kings on Thursday. Of course, it has not been possible for any squad to go 5-0 in a season series since prior to 2004-05, when the Charlotte Bobcats became the NBA’s 30th franchise, creating the current scheduling format of never facing a conference foe more than four times within the same 82-game campaign. Pelicans-Kings is actually one of several five-game season series across the league in 2023-24 that resulted from matchups in the inaugural In-Season Tournament; it’s been exceptionally positive for New Orleans, which has defeated Sacramento by margins of 36, five, 10 and 33 (average of 21.0 points). Coincidentally, Boston also has a chance to go 5-0 this season vs. New York, in the first half of TNT’s doubleheader (NOLA-Sacramento is the nightcap).

26-15: New Orleans best road record in franchise history, set by the 2007-08 Hornets, who coincidentally also had a mid-April multi-game trip to California that stopped in Sacramento (a 94-91 loss on April 12, 2008). The Pelicans are 26-14 in away games this season, meaning they will break the franchise mark if they win at least once over the next two nights. New Orleans is playing 42 road games this season (only 40 games in the Blender), another new scheduling wrinkle caused by the introduction of the In-Season Tournament. Early in 2023-24, the Pelicans didn’t look like they were headed to anything resembling a stellar road record, beginning the regular season at just 4-7 through Dec. 7. However, since a Dec. 13 victory in Washington, New Orleans has been the NBA’s best road team (22-7, just ahead of the LA Clippers at 22-8).

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Postgame wrap: Pelicans 133, Kings 100

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NBA In-Season Tournament quarterfinal postgame wrap: Pelicans 127, Kings 117

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Postgame wrap: Pelicans 117, Kings 112

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Postgame wrap: Pelicans 129, Kings 93

Notes: Brandon Ingram (knee) is out. Naji Marshall (shoulder) is questionable. … The above combination is 6-5, the second-most common of 16 starting lineups used by Willie Green this season. New Orleans has two other groups that have combined to go 30-17, including a 25-15 record from its most common first unit. … The Pelicans only need to win once over their final three games to guarantee no worse than a No. 7 seed in the West. … Golden State-Portland is the only other relevant Thursday game on the scoreboard for the Pelicans. The Warriors (44-35) are three games behind NOLA with three games remaining for both squads, including Friday’s meeting in Chase Center.

De’Aaron Fox, Keon Ellis, Keegan Murray, Harrison Barnes, Domantas Sabonis

Notes: Kevin Huerter (shoulder) and Malik Monk (knee) are out. Murray (calf) is questionable. … This combination is 7-6, one of only seven different starting lineups used by Mike Brown this season. The Kings’ most common went 27-19 and is a repeat of the group that led Sacramento into the 2023 playoffs, the franchise’s first postseason appearance in 17 years. … Sacramento still has a chance to earn the West’s No. 6 seed, but would need to win each of its final three games (going 48-34) combined with New Orleans going 0-3.

STAY HOT AGAINST SACRAMENTODespite only six Pelicans players appearing in all four head-to-head games against the Kings this season, they’ve thoroughly dominated the series. Three top offensive weapons (Williamson, Valanciunas, McCollum) have shot at least 60 percent from the field vs. Sacramento, while McCollum (67 percent) and Ingram (56 percent) have been on fire from three-point range, though Ingram won’t play Thursday, his 11th consecutive DNP due to injury.MATCHUP TO WATCH, PART IBoth teams have a rising young talent at one of the forward spots, with Murphy currently filling in as a starter for Ingram, while Murray (listed as questionable) is a Kings fan favorite – whenever he sinks a three in Golden 1 Center, the home crowd yells “MUR-RAY!” after the PA guy bellows “KEE-GAN!” Murphy is 10/20 from the field and 6/14 from beyond the arc in his two games this season vs. Sacramento.MATCHUP TO WATCH, PART IINew Orleans’ sixth-ranked defense will try to contain Sacramento’s potent inside-outside duo of Sabonis and Fox, who both had a strong case to be named All-Stars in February. Sabonis is averaging 19.0 points and 10.5 rebounds vs. NOLA, while Fox has shooting splits of 36/20/71, a major departure from some of his spectacular outings in previous seasons against the Crescent City.

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Behind the Numbers: Pelicans at Kings (4/11/2024)

A look at three key numbers related to Sunday’s game in Footprint Center between New Orleans and Phoenix (5 p.m. Central, Gray Sports, WRNO 99.5 FM):

11-3, 7-2: New Orleans road record since Feb. 1 (best in the NBA) and the All-Star break (tied with Denver for the league’s No. 1 post-break mark), respectively. Entering Sunday’s game in Arizona on a four-game losing streak – all at home – the Pelicans’ best hope for a much-needed turnaround might be the way they’ve played on the road over an extended period. Among New Orleans’ 11 away victories since Groundhog’s Day, 10 have come by a margin of at least eight points (the lone exception: a one-point triumph at San Antonio on Feb. 2, via Zion Williamson’s game-winning layup). Granted, the Pelicans were much closer to full strength rotation-wise for the vast majority of their recent road contests and won’t have second-leading scorer Brandon Ingram (knee) available Sunday against the Suns. Meanwhile, Williamson (finger), Jose Alvarado (oblique) and Naji Marshall (shoulder) are all listed as questionable. New Orleans is 1-3 in the last four Alvarado road DNPs, but 11-2 in his last 13 road appearances.

7-3, 8-2: New Orleans’ current losing streak is the third time this season it has lost at least three games in a row. Following the previous two skids, the Pelicans went on to go 7-3 (starting Nov. 14) and 8-2 (starting Jan. 31) over their next 10 games, bouncing back from difficult stretches in excellent fashion. New Orleans will need to produce something similar over its final handful of regular season games to have a chance to earn a top-six seed in the Western Conference, or at the very least, finish in the top half of the play-in tournament bracket. Sunday’s contest is a virtual must-win to remain in top-six contention, because if Phoenix prevails, it will essentially have a three-loss edge on New Orleans with only four games remaining for each team (two-game standings lead, plus the tiebreaker). If the Pelicans become a play-in tournament participant, the West’s seventh seed should be coveted, given that every No. 7 has reached the playoffs since the NBA introduced its current play-in format in 2021 (conversely, no 10th seed has ever qualified).

126.0: Phoenix offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions) in its two head-to-head games against New Orleans this season. The Suns boast the NBA’s eighth-best offense, so prolific scoring shouldn’t come as a big surprise, but they’ve been significantly better vs. the Pelicans than over the course of their entire season (117.1 offensive rating, about a half-point better than New Orleans’ 116.5, which ranks 12th among the 30 teams). The Pelicans will need to do a much better job of containing Devin Booker (50-plus points in each of his last three matchups with the Crescent City) and the Suns as a whole. New Orleans’ defensive efficiency in 2023-24 is 111.9, good for fifth-best in the NBA.

CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy, Jonas Valanciunas

Notes: This combination became the 16th different first unit used by Willie Green this season. … New Orleans still has a chance to move up and become a top-six seed in the West if it wins Sunday, but the recent four-game losing streak has also brought pursuers much closer in the standings. The eighth-place Lakers (45-33) are just a half-game behind NOLA and host Minnesota at 9 p.m. Sunday. Ninth-place Sacramento (44-33) trails by a game and visits Brooklyn at 6:30. No. 10 Golden State (42-35, three games behind) hosts Utah at 7:30, then visits the Lakers on Tuesday in what will be a critical game within the play-in seeding race.

Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, Grayson Allen, Kevin Durant, Jusuf Nurkic

Notes: The Suns have battled injuries all season, causing Frank Vogel to use 21 different starting lineups. However, Phoenix is 20-11 with this most common combination and has been able to rely on it much more heavily in recent weeks, after Beal and Booker had stretches of injury DNPs. … The Suns can’t be ruled out of earning homecourt advantage in the first round, because they are only three games behind the fourth-place LA Clippers (49-28) and face the Clips in consecutive games on Tuesday and Wednesday, the latter in Crypto.com Arena.

ROAD SHOWCan New Orleans quickly return to recent form on the road? Its home/road splits have been stunning, but perhaps at least partly being due to the level of competition differing greatly. Since March 1, the Pelicans are 4-6 at home, but 6-1 on the road. The significant caveat is that five of those Blender defeats were against opponents currently in playoff position, while three of the away victories came vs. out-of-contention foes.BOOK STUDYPriority No. 1 for the Pelicans’ defense may be to not allow Booker to take over the first quarter (and first half), the way he’s done twice this season in the Crescent City, not far from where he attended high school in Mississippi. He also scored 58 points the last time Phoenix hosted New Orleans, in December 2022. Somehow the All-Star guard must be kept at least somewhat in check.MATCHUP TO WATCHGetting Alvarado back would be a huge boost to New Orleans’ bench, which still ranks second in the NBA in plus-minus, despite the catalytic point guard being sidelined for five consecutive games (and eight times since the All-Star break, with the Pelicans going 2-6 in those). The NOLA second line probably needs to come up with a big-time effort Sunday in order to register what would be a momentous win. Phoenix’s bench is 21st in plus-minus.

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Behind the Numbers: Pelicans at Suns (4/7/2024)

A look at three key numbers related to Saturday’s game in the Smoothie King Center between Boston and New Orleans (4 p.m. Central, Bally Sports, WRNO 99.5 FM):

21-5, 19-7: Records for Boston and New Orleans, respectively, since Jan. 30, the day after the Celtics rallied from a 17-point deficit to beat the Pelicans in TD Garden by a 118-112 margin. Those are the NBA’s two best marks over that span (Oklahoma City is also 19-7 during the same two-month timeframe). In even more recent terms, these pair of clubs boast the second- and third-best March records (behind only 13-1 Houston), with the Pelicans going 10-3 and the Celtics at 11-4 (despite consecutive losses this week in Atlanta). Also in March, Boston leads the NBA in three-point percentage (41.9), while New Orleans is fifth (38.1). The Celtics have the NBA’s top point differential this month (+15.0); the Pelicans are third (+9.9), with the red-hot Rockets in between (+11.3).

19-9: New Orleans record against the Eastern Conference this season, with only two games remaining (Saturday vs. Boston, Wednesday vs. Orlando). With the West returning to its multi-decade dominance over the East in 2023-24, the Pelicans have taken advantage of their interconference schedule to the greatest degree since they went 21-9 in those matchups during the 2017-18 campaign. It also marks one of the bigger differences between the current Pelicans and the last time they made the playoffs in 2022 (just 11-19 vs. the East). New Orleans has won at least once against every East squad this season except Chicago (0-2), Boston (0-1) and Orlando (0-1), with sweeps over (in order of today’s standings) New York, Philadelphia, Brooklyn, Toronto, Charlotte, Washington and Detroit. That’s a 10-0 record vs. the East’s five teams outside play-in position.

5-4: Currently 45-28, Pelicans record required over the final nine games to get to 50 wins for the second time in franchise history. Coincidentally, 5-4 is also the remaining split for New Orleans of home games and road games on the schedule. Third-year head coach Willie Green was asked recently if 50 victories was a goal for the Pelicans, to which he responded “I like that number.” Green and the Crescent City would also enjoy finishing at least 50-32 after 82 games for a few other reasons, including that it would guarantee at least a top-eight seed after New Orleans entered the play-in tournament as a No. 9 seed each of the last two years. A 50-win campaign would also come close to locking up a playoff berth, considering that seventh-place Phoenix (43-31) would need to go 7-1 to get to 50 victories, while eighth-place Sacramento (42-31) would require a 9-0 finish to post 51 (the Kings don’t have the tiebreaker on the Pelicans, so 50 wouldn’t be enough to surpass them).

BOSTON (57-16, 1ST IN EAST)Thursday loss at AtlantaDerrick White, Jrue Holiday, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis

Notes: The Celtics have clinched the No. 1 seed in the East and are poised to wrap up homecourt advantage in the entire NBA postseason, likely in the next week or so. They have at least six fewer losses than every team in the West, with only nine games remaining apiece for Boston, Minnesota (51-22) and Oklahoma City (51-22). … This starting combination has gone 26-8 this season. A separate lineup has nearly the exact same winning percentage at 10-3, with Al Horford in place of Porzingis at the center spot.

NEW ORLEANS (45-28, 5TH IN WEST)Thursday win vs. MilwaukeeCJ McCollum, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy, Zion Williamson, Jonas Valanciunas

Notes: Jose Alvarado (oblique) and Brandon Ingram (knee) are out. Dyson Daniels (knee) is probable. … The Pelicans are one game behind the fourth-place Clippers (46-27), who won Friday at Orlando, but otherwise it was a productive evening for New Orleans in terms of making progress toward securing a top-six seed (Phoenix, Sacramento and the Lakers all lost Friday and are in West slots 7-9). … This starting combination has gone 4-2 this season. The team’s most common group is 25-15. ... Murphy is 11-4 as a starter. Oddly, all of those losses have been at home, compared to an 8-0 road record, including six away victories by double-digit margins.

BEST IN THE GAMEBoston’s bench ranks No. 1 in the NBA in plus-minus, outscoring opponents by an average of 3.5 points per game (that’s 256 points over the course of the entire season). New Orleans is second in the stat, at plus-2.7, which equals an edge of 194 points over its 73 games played. The Pelicans won’t have catalyst Alvarado on Saturday due to injury, but Naji Marshall and Larry Nance Jr. rank first and 12th, respectively, in individual total plus-minus among reserves in March. Marshall is actually tied with Boston’s Sam Hauser atop that list at plus-93. The Celtics have two other subs (Luke Kornet, Payton Pritchard) in March’s top 10.BOARDS IN THE BLENDERThese pair of top-10 rebounding teams (Boston is fourth in percentage, while New Orleans is ninth) played to a draw Jan. 29 in Boston, with both grabbing exactly 40 boards inside TD Garden. The Pelicans held a slight edge in offensive rebounds at 9-6, with six different players grabbing at least one. Known more for their scoring than rebounding, Tatum (11) and Brown (10) reached double digits in boards.MATCHUP TO WATCHFirst-Team All-Defense candidate Jones and the Pelicans’ fifth-ranked defense will have their hands full Saturday against the Celtics and the NBA’s No. 1 offense. Tatum is sixth in the league in scoring at 27.3 ppg, while Brown ranks No. 18 at 23.3, two spots in front of Williamson (20th, 22.8).

behind-the-numbers-celtics-at-pelicans-3-30-2024

Behind the Numbers: Celtics at Pelicans (3/30/2024)

A look at three key numbers related to Sunday’s game in Little Caesars Arena between New Orleans and Detroit (2 p.m. Central, Bally Sports, WRNO 99.5 FM):

30, 14, 7: Combined points, rebounds and assists in Friday’s 111-88 win over Miami for New Orleans’ Jose Alvarado (17-7-6) and Naji Marshall (13-7-1) off the bench. The pair of undrafted reserves burned the Heat – a franchise accustomed to unearthing those kinds of hidden gems – with the Pelicans winning Alvarado’s 31 minutes by a staggering 27 points. In Marshall’s 23 minutes, New Orleans was a plus-26. Alvarado noted in the locker room afterward that Jimmy Butler’s Feb. 23 public comments, in which Butler vowed to beat the Pelicans for a second time, “backfired” on the Heat. Among other things, Butler told reporters last month that Miami would win and is “the better team.” With Brandon Ingram (knee) sidelined Friday and Zion Williamson scoring his fewest points of the season (four on 2/7 shooting), New Orleans used significant contributions from its motivated second unit to answer an intense 11-point defeat to Miami one month ago. Friday’s win improved the Pelicans to 33-16 this season when Alvarado plays (10-11 in all other games), including 16-4 since Jan. 31. They are 38-20 when Marshall plays (5-7 in other games).

5: New Orleans players among Willie Green’s nine-man rotation during a Nov. 2 win over Detroit who did not play in Friday’s victory at Miami. While injuries and roster changes will give the Pistons a much different look Sunday than how they appeared back in November inside the Blender, the same will be true to an extent for the Pelicans. When New Orleans posted a 125-116 triumph over Detroit and improved to 4-1 on the regular season, Matt Ryan made his first NBA start, while Jordan Hawkins was the starting shooting guard. Kira Lewis Jr. (since traded), Dereon Seabron (now on G League duty) and Dyson Daniels (sidelined by knee injury) were three of Green’s four reserves who logged double-digit minutes Nov. 2 (the fourth was Larry Nance Jr.). Ingram was out vs. Detroit due to injury but went on to play in the next 34 consecutive games; Williamson was also a DNP, due to it being the second game of a back-to-back.

15-1: New Orleans record this season when it shoots at least 45 percent from three-point range in a game. The Pelicans are also 23-5 when making at least 40 percent of their trey attempts. They connected on a 50 percent rate Friday in Miami by shooting 18/36, continuing an odd trend in which they’ve been noticeably more accurate on the road (39.2 three-point percentage, ranked third among the 30 NBA teams entering Saturday night) than in home games (36.9 percent, ranked 17th). Although New Orleans is a slightly more experienced team compared to last season, and that could explain a portion of its big improvement on the road (23-14 current away record vs. 15-26 in 2022-23), a more tangible factor is markedly better performance in perimeter shooting. The Pelicans shot 35.3 percent on threes in road games last season, ranking 17th. They were ninth in home games (37.5), representing the opposite of what’s taking place in ’23-24.

Notes: The Pelicans entered Saturday’s action with a two-game lead over sixth-place Dallas (41-29) and seventh-place Phoenix (41-29), with the latter margin guaranteed to change by a half-game in one direction or the other, because the Suns are visiting San Antonio. Eighth-place Sacramento (40-29) is also in action Saturday, visiting Orlando. … This first unit has gone 2-1 this season. It previously split a pair of home games coming out of the All-Star break vs. Houston and Miami. … Starting small forward Ingram (knee) and defense-first reserve Dyson Daniels (knee) are out. … If the season ended right now, the Pelicans would face the fourth-seeded Clippers in Round 1 of the West playoffs.

Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Troy Brown Jr., Tosan Evbuomwan, James Wiseman

Notes: The Pistons entered Saturday’s action with the same record as Washington in the East. The Wizards were scheduled to face Toronto. … First-year Detroit head coach Monty Williams – who led New Orleans for five seasons from 2010-15 – has used 30 different starting lineups this season. A rookie, Evbuomwan made his second NBA start Friday, in only his 10th game in the league. He suited up for four Memphis games prior to coming to the Motor City. … Jalen Duren (back) is questionable. Simone Fontecchio (toe), Taj Gibson (hamstring), Quentin Grimes (knee), Isaiah Stewart (hamstring), Ausar Thompson (medical) and Stanley Umude (ankle) are out.

KNOW YOUR PERSONNELFrom a scouting perspective, the Pelicans may want to toss aside the game tape from their Nov. 2 victory over the Pistons, because Detroit is a vastly different squad. Two starters from that game, Thompson and Stewart, are sidelined for the season, while a third (guard Killian Hayes) was waived in February. One Detroit sub from Nov. 2 to keep an eye on is guard Marcus Sasser, who was excellent in the Blender (19 points, 5/8 three-point shooting).MATCHUP TO WATCH, PART IOn Thursday, Williamson (2019) faced fellow No. 1 overall draft pick Paolo Banchero (2022) for the first time in the NBA. On Sunday, Williamson is scheduled to do the same vs. No. 1 overall draftee Cunningham (2021). On Nov. 2 in the Crescent City (a DNP for Williamson due to rest on the second night of a back-to-back), Cunningham registered 22 points and 11 assists.MATCHUP TO WATCH, PART IIThe two head coaches – Williams and Green – worked together on the same staff and helped lead Phoenix to the 2021 NBA Finals, the Suns’ first trip there since Charles Barkley was their best player. Williams and Green coincidentally met in the playoffs the next season, with Phoenix prevailing 4-2 over New Orleans. On Sunday in his hometown of Detroit, Green can improve to .500 vs. Williams in regular season matchups, having gone 4-5.

behind-the-numbers-pelicans-at-pistons-3-24-2024

Behind the Numbers: Pelicans at Pistons (3/24/2024)

A look at three key numbers related to Saturday’s game in the Smoothie King Center between Portland and New Orleans (6 p.m. Central, Bally Sports, WRNO 99.5 FM):

67: Zion Williamson total points in games this week vs. Cleveland and the LA Clippers, the first time during the 2023-24 regular season that he’s registered consecutive outings of 30-plus points (his most recent previous instance was December 2022, when he had 43- and 36-point nights vs. Minnesota and Philadelphia). No matter how you sort the Duke product’s numbers lately, it’s clear the two-time All-Star power forward is hitting his stride, averaging 29.3 points over the last four games, while shooting 63 percent from the field. He’s also averaging 8.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.5 blocks during that span. Based on the Basketball Reference “game score” metric – which calculates the total impact a player has on a specific game – four of Williamson’s 10 best performances of this season have taken place since March 8, a 3-1 stretch for New Orleans that includes wins over Philadelphia, Atlanta and the Clippers.

14.7: New Orleans average point differential in seven head-to-head games vs. Portland since CJ McCollum joined the Pelicans in a February 2022 trade. McCollum has gone 6-1 against his former NBA franchise in those matchups, including blowout wins by 34 and 33 points (as well as three others by double digits, part of a 103-point aggregate advantage). Not coincidentally given the club’s direction following the trades of McCollum and longtime backcourt partner Damian Lillard, the Trail Blazers have clinched their third consecutive losing season, after they had qualified for the Western Conference playoffs eight consecutive years. Currently in the No. 5 spot in the West standings, the Pelicans are trying to seal a 10th playoff appearance for McCollum in his 11 NBA seasons, with the lone miss coming last spring.

23-12: Speaking of former Trail Blazers – albeit one who was in Portland for a much shorter stint than McCollum – Larry Nance Jr.’s return to the court from injury in late December has been an underrated element of New Orleans’ surge in the standings. New Orleans has gone 23-12 since Nance missed 13 straight November/December games due to injury, compared to just 6-8 in his first 14 appearances of 2023-24. Nance, who tried to play through not being entirely healthy in October/November, used his time off to get back to 100 percent physically. Nance scored 12 points during Friday’s critical victory over the Clippers, including two points, two rebounds and two assists in the fourth quarter, thriving in the dunker spot. Nance and NOLA’s bench helped put away LA by registering 18 of the hosts’ 30 fourth-quarter points.

Scoot Henderson, Dalano Banton, Kris Murray, Toumani Camara, Deandre Ayton

Notes: On a lengthy Trail Blazers injury list, Malcolm Brogdon (elbow), Shaedon Sharpe (abdominal) and Robert Williams III (knee) are out. Jerami Grant (hamstring) and Jabari Walker (hip) are doubtful. Matisse Thybulle (ankle) is questionable. Anfernee Simons (knee) and Rayan Rupert (ankle) are probable. … Portland has the NBA’s fifth-worst record, likely headed for an ideal pre-lottery slot at the mid-May event. Charlotte (17-50) is just behind the Blazers in the overall league standings.

Notes: The Pelicans will submit their official injury report prior to the league-mandated 1 p.m. local deadline for the second game of all back-to-backs. … The Pelicans moved to within two games of the fourth-place Clippers (42-24) by virtue of Friday’s victory, while clinching the tiebreaker based on the season series (3-1). ... New Orleans has a 1.5-game lead over No. 6 Sacramento (38-27). The Kings host New York at 9 p.m. Saturday in Golden 1 Center. … The Pelicans’ most common starting lineup is 24-14 this season. Along with two other combinations, New Orleans has gone 32-17 (8-9 in all other games).

SHUTDOWN MENTALITYIn the only previous meeting of the season between New Orleans and Portland on Feb. 10, the Pelicans held the Trail Blazers to a meager 84 points and 6/21 three-point shooting, in a low-scoring road victory. New Orleans will try to repeat that defensive success against a young, rebuilding opponent that’s also missing several key components due to injury.LIMIT SECOND CHANCESPortland’s top category of effectiveness may be its offensive rebounding, ranking fourth in that stat at 12.8 per game (only Atlanta, New York and Utah grab more). Meanwhile, New Orleans is 14th in defensive rebounding percentage (72.1). The Blazers won total rebounding by a 42-36 margin in the Feb. 10 contest, with 11 offensive boards.MATCHUP TO WATCHAt center, Valanciunas (16 points, nine rebounds at Portland on Feb. 10) starts against Ayton, who’s in the midst of one of the best statistical stretches of his career. The former No. 1 overall draft pick from Arizona has averaged 29.0 points and 16.8 rebounds over his last four games, shooting 61 percent from the field.

behind-the-numbers-trail-blazers-at-pelicans-3-16-2024

Behind the Numbers: Trail Blazers at Pelicans (3/16/2024)

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