By Josh Cohen
January 27, 2011
ORLANDO -- Whenever players from the same NBA Draft class compete against each other, I can’t help but analyze and evaluate the crop of talent from that particular draft.
On Friday when the Orlando Magic clash with the Chicago Bulls in an Eastern Conference showdown, there will be a few of these to examine.
Dwight Howard (No. 1) and Luol Deng (No. 7 by Phoenix) were each lottery selections in the 2004 NBA Draft, while Derrick Rose (No. 1) and Ryan Anderson (No. 21 by New Jersey) were each chosen in 2008.
Though, indisputably, Howard and Rose have transformed into two of the best No. 1 picks of the last 10 years and were the absolute correct decisions by both the Magic and Bulls, it’s always fascinating to forecast what would be different if teams were permitted a mulligan in drafts.
Indubitably, for example, if the Detroit Pistons were allowed a re-pick in the 2003 NBA Draft, they would choose Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh with the second overall pick instead of Darko Milicic.
Similarly, if the L.A. Clippers could erase their Michael Olowakandi selection with the No. 1 pick in 1998, they certainly would. Perhaps as a substitute L.A. would opt for Vince Carter, Paul Pierce or Dirk Nowitzki.
In addition to free agency, draft decisions are essential in the development of an NBA franchise.
One can argue that the Magic and Bulls, irrespective of their respective lottery luck, are two of the better drafting teams in NBA history. I’m not trying to suggest that good fortune and destiny are not to credit, but it still comes down to making the appropriate decisions.
Orlando, for one, aptly chose Shaquille O’Neal first overall in 1992, made a brilliant front office decision when it swapped Chris Webber for Penny Hardaway in 1993, ended up with the Rookie of the Year in 2000 with Mike Miller and judiciously opted for Howard rather than Emeka Okafor in 2004. The Magic also acquired Jameer Nelson that year in a draft-day trade with the Nuggets.
Chicago, in spite of making a pretty sizebable mistake when it dealt Elton Brand away to the Clippers for Tyson Chandler in 2001 and also choosing Jay Williams in 2002 when eventual superstars like Amar'e Stoudemire were on the board, has generally made intelligent draft-day decisions.
In spite of some pressure at the time to elect either Sam Perkins, Charles Barkley or even the barely remembered Melvin Turpin, the Bulls elegantly chose Michael Jordan with the third pick in the 1984 NBA Draft. A few years later, Chicago completed one of the most lopsided trades in NBA history when it acquired the rights to Scottie Pippen from Seattle in exchange for Olden Polynice in 1987.
After six NBA championships, a few years of rebuilding and some lottery luck in 2008, the Bulls avoided pressure from some critics and selected Rose rather than Michael Beasley. One year earlier, they wisely disregarded critics who claimed Joakim Noah would never transform into a successful NBA player.
Other players such as Jamal Crawford, who was acquired by the Bulls from the Cavaliers after he was drafted eighth overall in 2000, and Ben Gordon (2004) were also sharp choices by Chicago despite both not staying with the franchise. Crawford, for instance, is the reigning Sixth Man of the Year.
While the Magic and Bulls have normally enjoyed draft-day success, it is not like that for many other teams. Just ask the Portland Trail Blazers (choosing Sam Bowie over Jordan in 1984 and Greg Oden over Kevin Durant in 2007).
The point is: Yes, every team makes mistakes with some of their selections, but ultimately, all that matters is picking the right guy when it counts most. Sure, Chicago is probably a little upset it opted for Marcus Fizer in 2000 or Williams in 2002, but those poor decisions are quickly forgotten when you attain players like Rose, Deng and Noah.
Therefore, what if we can go back in time and redo NBA Drafts. What star players would be on different teams and which teams would be in a totally different circumstance with their respective franchises?
I looked back at each draft between 2000 and 2008 and decided to project how each draft would turn out if they were redone.
The projections, however, are not based on the needs of the team at the time of that draft. They, in contrast, are simply ordered based on how the players have performed since entering the league. For instance, in 2003, the Detroit Pistons probably didn’t have a spot for Dwyane Wade with the second pick since Richard Hamilton controlled that position at the time. But in these projections, the selections are based on the quality of the player, not how they would have fit with each individual team at the time.
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