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Viewer's Guide to the 2014 NBA Draft Lottery

By David Locke

Jazz fans have been waiting for this day for months, and now the NBA Lottery has finally arrived. The lottery will begin at 6 p.m. MT and will be broadcast on ESPN. Here are a few tips—a lottery viewer’s guide, if you will—on what to expect (and hope for) from a Utah Jazz perspective.

1)     You want to hear every team announced in their designated order. So you want to hear: Phoenix,  Minnesota, New York, Denver, New Orleans, Cleveland, Detroit, Sacramento, Los Angeles Lakers and Boston (in that specific order).

2)     If a team is not announced in the correct order, it has two impacts. First, it means one of the top three picks have been filled by that team. Secondly, it pushes the Jazz down a spot. So if one team goes out of order, then the Jazz are sitting at the No. 5 spot. If two teams have gone out of order, the Jazz have been pushed to the No. 6 spot.

3)     Paying attention to how many teams have jumped up into the top 3, the big moments come in the two picks prior to the Jazz originally designated pick. The Jazz are at No. 4 but are most likely to go No. 5, so watch the No. 5 pick. If a team behind them has already jumped up and the Jazz are not selected with the No. 5 pick, then they are in the top 3. If two teams have jumped up, then the pick to watch is the No. 6 pick.

4)     If no teams jump in front of the Jazz and you don’t hear the Jazz at No. 4, they are in the top 3.

5)     Here are some odds to follow as the night goes on:

  • At the beginning of the night, the Jazz have 34 percent chance of a top 3 pick and a 10 percent chance of getting the top pick.
  • If no team is out of order after pick No. 12, Utah’s odds are still 34 percent for the top 3 and jump to 10.5 percent for the top pick.
  • If no team is out of order after pick No. 10, Utah’s odds are 35.4 percent for the top 3 and 10.8 percent for the top pick.
  • If no team is out of order after pick No. 8, Utah’s odds are 40 percent for the top 3 and 12 percent for the top pick.
  • If no team is out of order after pick No. 7, Utah’s odds are 48 percent for the top 3 and 14 percent for the top pick.
  • If no team is out of order after pick No. 6, Utah’s odds are 69 percent for the top 3 and 20 percent for the top pick.
  • If everything is in order and the Jazz are not called on for pick No. 5, the odds are 78 percent for the top 3 and 23 percent for the top pick.

 

 

 

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