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Q. I've read a few post-season reviews of what Larry and the front office have done with those trades this summer, and even though most of them recognize we have quite a lot of talent, I could sense a lot of doubt and uncertainty, predicting the Pacers to win just over 45 games.
I wonder what's your take on this, with PG in his prime, Myles Turner about to blow up and the addition of proven veterans like Big Al, Young, Brooks and All-Star caliber talent Teague. To me (I'm biased, obviously), it looks like we got what it takes to take it to the Finals.
— Onra
A. So far I'm going with 50 wins as a (very) early prediction for next season, if the team has good health. That could change before the season begins, but it seems reasonable now.
Last season's team won 45 games. I believe the off-season trades have improved the overall talent level somewhat, but the best argument for a better season are improved play from Paul George and Myles Turner. George has his comeback season behind him and seems poised to take his game to another level coming off his Olympic experience. Turner is so young he can't help but get better, but he's putting in the work regardless. People rave about his work habits and he apparently played well as a member of the Select team that scrimmaged against the Olympians.
The coaching change also could have a positive impact. That's not meant to be a swipe at Frank Vogel. Teams usually get a bump from the change, as everything seems fresh again. Nate McMillan is a proven head coach and is familiar with the returning players, so he won't need much of a breaking-in period.
I won't predict a trip to the Finals, though. Cleveland likely comes back with nearly the same team that won last season's championship, and other teams such as Boston appear to have improved. And, the downside to all the Pacers' newness is that they haven't established chemistry. It usually takes awhile, so we'll see how quickly the players adapt to one another.
Q. Paul George has improved in each season of his career (aside of his short return after injury). If he wins an MVP award and gives the Pacers their first NBA title, where would he rank all-time in franchise history? Higher than Reggie Miller?
— Surya
A. Becoming the league's MVP award and leading the Pacers to a championship? That should be enough to get George elected Mayor, if he wants it. Or, at least, a statue outside of Bankers Life Fieldhouse.
George already ranks as one of the greatest players in franchise history. I realize Mel Daniels and George McGinnis were league MVPs in the ABA and members of championship teams, and Miller's playoff history is unrivaled in the history of this and most other franchises, but George has the most complete game of anyone who has worn the Pacers uniform.
He's bigger and more athletic than Miller, and a far better defender. That's not meant to downgrade Miller, and George will have to continue proving himself in the playoffs, but he has more physical tools than Miller, who maxed out for a skinny guy who lacked great quickness and jumping ability. McGinnis had the best season a Pacers player has ever had in 1974-75, but his peak was short-lived and he admittedly was turnover prone and didn't put as much into defense as George. I find it nearly impossible to compare George with Daniels, given the difference in their positions and eras.
Q. In a previous posting of your Mailbag, July 29, you answered a question regarding Pacers' depth stating that Al Jefferson would be part of the reserves, backing up Turner in the post. Why would we not want to start this lineup:
1 - Jeff Teague
2 - Paul George
3 & 4 - Thad Young and Myles Turner
5 - Al Jefferson
Lavoy Allen could be used as the backup to Jefferson. This would allow Turner to show off his shooting that Larry so highly praises. I guess I see him as a version of Kevin Durant.
— Michael
A. That's a legit proposal, and I think that lineup (with Turner at 4) will be used some regardless of who starts. I'm going by the statements from Bird and McMillan that Turner will start at center next season, but we were reminded last season that starting lineups can be changed. Frequently if desired.
McMillan will make adjustments as necessary, and he could play Jefferson and Turner together against bigger teams. I'm more a fan of picking your best five and sticking with that and letting other teams adjust to you, but you have to have established talent and chemistry to do that.
I don't compare Turner to Durant. They're different kind of athletes. A better comparison for a hopeful Pacers fan might be with Turner and LaMarcus Aldridge.
Q. What kind of role player do we need the most?
— Circle City (via Twitter)
A. A really good one, who comes at a bargain.
Oh, you mean what skills are needed off the bench next season. I'm going with 3-point shooting. The Pacers' current roster only includes one player who shot 40 percent from the 3-point line last season. That, surprisingly, was Jeff Teague in Atlanta. He has a career 35.5 3-point percentage, though, so we'll have to see if last season was a fluke or evidence of improvement.
Paul George and C.J. Miles shot 37 percent and Aaron Brooks shot 36 percent for Chicago. I can see George shooting better next season, because he has his comeback season behind him and his confidence should get a boost from his Olympic experience. Still, it seems the team could use another consistent perimeter shooter. Myles Turner is capable of becoming a threat, but he is likely to be playing center. That doesn't mean he can't step out to the 3-point line, and I'm sure he will some, but he'll still be needed closer to the basket at times unless he's paired with another center.
Q. What is the percentage you give for the Pacers making another trade this offseason?
— Jose (via Twitter)
A. I have a feeling Larry Bird and Co. would like to do another deal, but aren't desperate.
Most likely, there have been discussions here and there, but Bird considered the asking price for whatever they were talking about too high. Whether or not the other team comes down is impossible to predict. This is the time of the year when teams wait for one another to blink and give in. Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. But just because it's August doesn't mean trade conversations have dried to the point tumbleweeds are rolling through the phone lines. Remember, Bird completed a trade for Luis Scola on July 27 of 2013 after he finally agreed to include a future first-round draft pick. (The Suns drafted Bogdan Bogdanovic with it, but he has yet to play in the NBA.) And, Donnie Walsh completed the trade for Jermaine O'Neal on Aug. 31.
I don't want to cop out and go with 50 percent. So let's go with 60. But that doesn't mean it necessarily would be a major deal.
Q. Is there any truth to the rumors the Pacers are trading Ellis and Stuckey for Gay?
— Robert (via Twitter)
Q. Any more discussions about the Pacers trying to trade for Rudy Gay? Maybe for one of our better guards and a second rounder?
— Brian (via Twitter)
A. Well, this gets a bit tricky.
Are the rumors true? Have there been more discussions? Yes, there have been rumors the Pacers have talked about trading for Gay. Are the rumors founded in reality? If so, have they continued talking? I don't know. I haven't asked Larry Bird about it, and if I did he wouldn't tell me, or if he did tell me it would be off the record and I couldn't pass it along here without violating a trust.
It seems a possibility, because the trade makes sense for both sides. And, that particular rumor didn't come from one of those websites that can be traced back to some mother's basement. But, that doesn't mean whatever talks might have taken place ever became serious.
Sometimes you just have to say you don't know. I know fans love the rumor mill and love to speculate, and I don't blame them. But from a journalistic viewpoint, a general manager or team president is never going to let that kind of information out unless he has the assurance of secrecy, because teams never want to let a player know they're trying to trade him, for obvious reasons.
The rumor might have been totally unfounded, or perhaps was briefly discussed before one side told the other to take a hike. Often you don't find out if there was anything to such a rumor for months, or even years. Or, you never find out. I've asked Donnie Walsh a few times about deals that he tried to make, or nearly made, and he never lets on. Even today, he doesn't want a former player finding out there had been a desire or willingness to trade him.
Come to think of it, Walsh did tell me he once made a substantive offer for Larry Bird toward the end of Bird's playing career, one that made the Celtics stop and take notice. And he did tell me he tried to trade for a draft pick that could have been used on Calbert Cheaney. But he never let on who he was offering. I could make an educated guess, but it would be strictly a guess.
If a trade for Gay happens, we'll know the rumors were well-founded. Even if it doesn't, it might have been close to coming off. Maybe we'll know for sure someday.
Q. Do you know why Ian Mahinmi is not on the French Olympic basketball team? I've watched him in previous international tournaments.
— Brian (via Twitter)
A. Mahinmi's free agent status prevented him from participating in the qualifying tournament in July, as he had to be available for negotiations and to sign a contract.
Other players who had to miss that tournament are on the Olympic team, however. So, I can only assume that if was asked to participate he declined, to be with his family or rest. He last played for France in the 2010 FIBA Championship, so I'm not sure of his desire to continue playing in international events.
Q. I am a fan from Cincy. A couple of years ago during the pre-intro highlights, when showing early Pacers video, you could hear a voice saying, “And the Pacers have won back-to-back ABA championships.” The voice is familiar and Marty Brennaman (Hall of Fame Reds announcer) was a Pacers play-by-play guy back then.
Was that the voice of Marty?
— Greg
A. Brennaman was the Pacers' television play-by-play voice in the 1983-84 season. That rules him out as the voice you've heard, as he did not work ABA games and the clip you are hearing probably is from a live broadcast.
Here are two links that might provide an answer. In each one, the first voice you hear is that of Joe McConnell, the radio voice from 1972-77. I think he has to be the voice you're hearing, because he called the game when the Pacers won in '73, which was a back-to-back championship. Link 1 » Link 2 »
Thanks to Dean Heaviland, Vice-President of Game Operations, for digging these out.
Q. Why not sign Lance Stephenson? He is a scorer, distributor, and solid defender. I think he is an upgrade over Monta Ellis. We tried to sign him for 44 million two years ago and now we may be able to get him for peanuts. Well, NBA salary peanuts.
— Kelley
A. Larry Bird has stated Stephenson, or someone representing Stephenson, called him, and he talked with that person. But Bird also said it was highly unlikely he would sign Stephenson, and since it hasn't happened by this point it seems even more than highly unlikely.
There's no room on the roster for Stephenson at the moment. If there was, bringing him back would be dicey. Interesting, but dicey. My position was that it would be a good idea only if you got Stephenson at a bargain price and signed him for one season. It would be very difficult to re-create the circumstances that allowed him to flourish three seasons ago, because the roster has changed do drastically. Paul George and Lavoy Allen are the only current players who has played with Stephenson (and Allen barely played with him, as he was acquired at the trade deadline in Stephenson’s last season in Indiana and played sparingly that year).
I'll be curious to see where Stephenson winds up next season. He might have to sign for the minimum somewhere, go overseas, or try out for a team without a guaranteed contract.
Q. I was wondering if any consideration was given to former Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau during the search. Nothing against Nate. Just thought Thibs would have done a great job with the young guys.
— Scott
A. I don't know if Bird had interest in Thibodeau or not. But if he did, timing was not in his favor. Minnesota locked up Thibodeau two weeks before the Pacers' season ended and it was announced Vogel would not receive a new contract.
Q. Leaving the draft out of the picture for a moment, it looks like we've basically lost five players and gained five players. At this point, we've lost George Hill, Ian Mahinmi, Jordan Hill, Solomon Hill, and now Shayne Whittington. But we've gained Jeff Teague, Al Jefferson, Thaddeus Young, Jeremy Evans, and Aaron Brooks. Just looking at these two sets of five players, do you think the Pacers have upgraded their roster overall? It seems pretty clear to me that it's certainly an offensive upgrade, but what about defensively? I think a lot of the players we lost were solid defensively, but I'm not familiar with the defensive reputations of the newcomers. What do you think?
— Sam
A. You are wise to wonder about the defense. Most people only consider offense when comparing players. And yet we keep being told defense wins championships. That doesn't seem as true as it once was with so many prolific 3-point shooters. Some teams are nearly impossible to guard these days, it seems.
It's also difficult for me to compare the outgoing and incoming players. But on the whole, I'd say the Pacers have lost something defensively. George Hill and Solomon Hill were well above average, and I don't think any of the new players can match them for defense. The hope is that the offensive improvements will make up for whatever was lost on defense.
Q. I am just wondering why no one ever thinks that maybe C.J. is better for the role of Pacers' starting shooting guard? He can shoot, and he does not need the ball to be effective, and he has played this position before. He is hard-working and also plays defense. And, Monta Ellis definitely can dominate the ball when leading the bench play.
— Chih-Yang
A. I agree, Miles deserves consideration as a starting shooting guard. He's made for the position, and would seem to pair well with Teague in the backcourt.
Miles is coming off a hard-luck season. He got off to a great start in the small-ball lineup, volunteered to guard opposing teams' power forwards, took a beating for that, had other injuries, and didn't get healthy again until late in the season.
He played well when healthy, except for the playoff series with Toronto, when he never found a groove. His stats, though, indicate he would be effective as a starter. In the 24 games he started last season, he averaged 14.2 points while hitting 42 percent of his 3-pointers. I think the Pacers would take that next season from whomever plays alongside Teague and George. Miles averaged 10.3 points and hit 33 percent of his 3-pointers when he played off the bench, from where he got fewer minutes per game.
I don't believe starting is that important to him. In fact, his coach in Cleveland, Mike Brown, told me he thought Miles preferred playing off the bench. Miles, though, is like most players: he's most effective when he knows what to expect going into each game, develops chemistry with his teammates, plays long enough to develop a rhythm and doesn't have to worry about being yanked if he misses a couple of shots – a privilege afforded more often to starters than reserves.
Starting Miles alongside Teague and making Ellis a sixth man makes sense to me, but that sort of thing works itself out once training camp and the season begin.
Q. I predict that this will be yet another personnel miscalculation/misevaluation in which the player (Whittington) will end up proving to be a very talented contributor for someone; an effective big man, and better than guys we have kept. They should have tried to trade the notoriously streaky C.J. (Fool's Gold) Miles for a couple of future second-round picks and cash considerations. He is the weak link. They will one day regret releasing Whittington. Once again, they fail to recognize what they have. This is an undeniable historical pattern that continues.
— Scf323
A. I must say, I was not anticipating such an emotional defense of Whittington. I liked him and hoped he could be kept, but understand the situation. Fact is, players of Whittington's ability come along every year, and it's difficult for them to catch on and hang on. They need to be in the right place at the right time.
Whittington announced via Twitter on Sunday (Aug. 7) that he will play for a team in Spain next season. That probably will be better for him than sitting at the end of an NBA bench. He'll have the opportunity to improve, which will improve his odds of getting back into the NBA. If not, he can have a great experience playing overseas and seeing the world.
Meanwhile, you might want to stay away from the fan above, who wants Miles to start. Either that, or debate him. You have vastly different opinions.
Have a question for Mark? Want it to be on Pacers.com? Email him at askmontieth@gmail.com and you could be featured in his next mailbag.
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