This is how NBA team presidents earn their money. And lose their jobs.
A guy like Thon Maker comes into the draft, all 19 years and 7-feet-1 of him, full of mystery, intrigue and potential, seemingly as likely to be a superstar as a bust. What do you do about a guy like that?
Take him high in the first round, you could wind up looking like the executives who drafted other foreign centers who beamed with promise – guys like Darko Milicic, Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Hasheem Thabeet, Frederic Weis and Yinka Dare.
Don't draft him, and you might never live down the time you passed on the next Kevin Garnett.
Maker was among six players working out on the practice court at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on Wednesday, and was easily the focus of attention. He was matched up against UNLV's Stephen Zimmerman, another 19-year-old center. The other four players – Jake Layman (Maryland), Retin Obasohan (Alabama), Shanvon Shields (Nebraska) and Fred VanVleet (Wichita State) – are regarded as late second-round picks or players unlikely to be drafted.
Maker stands as one of the biggest wild cards in the draft. Most mock drafts have him going late in the first round, after the 20th pick owned by the Pacers, or even in the second round. But as he makes the tour of pre-draft workouts and teams get a first-hand look at his size, shooting ability, footwork and blatant youth, it's not difficult to imagine him capturing the fancy of a team with a mid-first-round pick.
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Who wouldn't want a legitimate 7-footer with a 36-inch vertical jump who has the footwork of a kid who grew up playing soccer, has the 3-point shooting stroke of a guard, shows impressive passing and shot-blocking instincts for someone who didn't begin playing until he was 13 years old, is mature well beyond his years, and displays an impressive work ethic?
"I knew my work ethic would help push me up," Maker said Wednesday while explaining his decision to enter the draft, rather than attend college. "I'm getting better and better and better. I'm always getting better and better and better. You can always use better."
It's Maker's potential that makes him dangerous – both to future opponents and current team presidents. It's obvious, but hardly guaranteed to be fulfilled. No doubt Milicic, Thabeet, Dare and the other "busts" looked great in pre-draft workouts as well. He will be easy to judge in hindsight, about five years from now. For now, he's a question mark who's shaped like an exclamation point.
He models himself after future Hall of Famer Kevin Garnett, saying, "I'm a modern version of what he was." But who's to say he won't wind up being more like Shawn Bradley? Or less?
It's appropriate that Maker would be all over the map in pre-draft evaluations, because quite literally his life has been all over the map. He was born in Sudan in Africa, sent to Uganda at age five to escape a civil war, and then to Australia, where he became exposed to the NBA and connected with a basketball coach. He attended school in Louisiana, Virginia and Ontario, Canada. Rated a five-star recruit, he was considering Arizona State, Kansas, Indiana, Notre Dame and St. John's before learning he would be eligible for this year's draft.
He knew immediately what to do.
"When I started (playing), I started at 100 percent to be a pro," he said. "It was a dream, so I'm glad I got the opportunity."
Maker has the look of a classic stretch four, a 7-footer who can drain 3-pointers. He's similar to Myles Turner, whom the Pacers took last season with the 11th pick, but isn't nearly as strong as Turner. The idea of having two 7-footers who can run the floor, drain shots from the perimeter and protect the rim might be appealing to the Pacers. Then again, it's not like there aren't other promising players in the draft.
Maker knows he has to get stronger to compete in the NBA. He also knows he will.
"I have time," he said. "Over the years, I've gradually put on weight and gotten stronger. I've always done it the right way, put on weight the right way. I have to be able to hold on to that weight. We're taking our time. In the NBA I'm pretty sure it will be much easier to get stronger, with more resources and good trainers who have seen it all. I'm just waiting to get in the door and then get to work right away."
He also knows he'll need a complete skill-set to fit the modern game. The media members who attended Wednesday's workout were only allowed to watch him shoot after practice, but he reportedly showed deft passing skills and a willingness to compete earlier in the workout.
"Over here, kids sometimes are taught to do ballhandling and be selfish," he said. "I was taught the international game, to pass and cut, shoot, dribble, whatever ... just play the game the right way."
He does indeed seem to have grasped the nuances. Asked if he's struggling with performing anything he's been asked to do in the pre-draft workouts, he thought for eight seconds, then asked for a clarification of the question. He paused for six more before coming up with something.
"I think I hold my screens too long," he said.
He pointed out that his knees stick out, and defenders have to take a wider path around them when he's setting screens, which delays his cut to the basket.
"I try to set a wide screen, and I told it too long," he said. "By that time the ballhandler is in the paint and waiting on me to throw a lob. I have to find a way to set it hard and get out quick."
All right, then. If that's truly the greatest of his concerns, he's going to make some team president look like a genius on draft night. And another few look foolish.
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