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Previewing the 2015 Draft Lottery

For the 31st time, the NBA Draft Lottery will be drawn to determine the order of selection for the top 14 picks in the 2015 NBA Draft on Tuesday, May 19 at 5:30 p.m. Pacific on ESPN.

After finishing with the fourth-worst record in the NBA in 2014-15, the Lakers own 119 of 1,001 possible number combinations that will be used to dictate the order teams will make selections in the June 25 Draft.

That gives them an 11.9 percent chance of landing the top pick and a 37.8 percent chance of landing a Top 3 pick.

This particular selection is Top 5 protected due to the 2012 trade for Steve Nash, and there is an 83 percent chance that L.A. keeps it. However, if two teams that are slotted fifth through 14th jump into the Top 3 – a 17 percent chance – the Lakers would lose the pick to Philadelphia (via Phoenix).

How does the process actually work?

In short, four out of 14 ping-pong balls (numbered 1 through 14) will be selected at random out of a lottery machine. The 1,001 possible combinations will have previously been divided between the 14 teams based on regular season records. The team assigned to the first combination that comes out wins the rights to the No. 1 overall selection position.

The four balls from that first selection are then put back into the drum, and the second set of four balls is drawn. And then the same for the third pick.

The Lakers, of course, hope one of their 119 combinations comes out on the first ball. Meanwhile, for reference, the Minnesota Timberwolves have 250 combinations (25 percent chance at No. 1) after finishing with the league’s worst record, while the Oklahoma City Thunder (0.5 percent) have the fewest combinations at just five.

The selection order for the teams that don’t win one of the top three picks goes in inverse order of that team’s regular season record. The actual Lottery process takes place in a separate room just prior to the national broadcast with select media, NBA officials and representatives of participating teams and the accounting firm Ernst & Young attending.

Lakers head coach Byron Scott will represent the team at the live event.

Probability Chart

TeamOdds1234567891011121314
Timberwolves25025%21.51%17.77%35.72%----------
Knicks19919.90%18.81%17.12%31.86%12.31%---------
76ers15615.60%15.74%15.59%22.57%26.48%4.03%--------
Lakers11911.90%12.60%13.30%9.85%35.07%16.03%1.25%-------
Magic888.80%9.66%10.68%-26.15%35.99%8.36%0.37%------
Kings636.30%7.10%8.12%--43.95%30.47%3.97%0.10%-----
Nuggets434.30%4.94%5.79%---59.93%23.22%1.79%0.03%----
Pistons282.80%3.26%3.89%----72.44%16.79%0.81%0.01%---
Bobcats171.70%2.00%2.41%-----81.31%12.20%0.38%0.002%--
Heat111.10%1.30%1.58%------86.97%8.88%0.18%0.001%-
Pacers80.80%0.95%1.15%-------90.74%6.28%0.08%0.0001%
Jazz70.70%0.83%1.01%--------93.53%3.90%0.02%
Suns60.60%0.71%0.87%---------96.02%1.80%
Thunder50.50%0.59%0.73%----------98.18%